Exam 4: Forecasting

John's House of Pancakes uses a weighted moving average method to forecast pancake sales.It assigns a weight of 5 to the previous month's demand,3 to demand two months ago,and 1 to demand three months ago.If sales amounted to 1000 pancakes in May,2200 pancakes in June,and 3000 pancakes in July,what should be the forecast for August?

Demand forecasts serve as inputs to financial,marketing,and personnel planning.

Which of the following is NOT a characteristic of exponential smoothing?

What two numbers are contained in the daily report to the CEO of Walt Disney Parks & Resorts regarding the six Orlando parks?

A measure of forecast error that does not depend upon the magnitude of the item being forecast is the ________.

Which of the following is TRUE regarding the two smoothing constants of the Forecast Including Trend (FIT)model?

What is the key difference between weighted moving average and simple moving average approaches to forecasting?

Suppose that the demand in period 1 was 7 units and the demand in period 2 was 9 units.Assume that the forecast for period 1 was for 5 units.If the firm uses exponential smoothing with an alpha value of .20,what should be the forecast for period 3? (Round answers to two decimal places. )

The sales force composite forecasting method relies on salespersons' estimates of expected sales.

Given the following data,calculate the three-year moving averages for years 4 through 10.

In a regression equation where y-hat is demand and x is advertising,a coefficient of determination (R2)of .70 means that 70% of the variance in advertising is explained by demand.

A forecasting method has produced the following over the past five months.What is the mean absolute deviation?

________ forecasts use a series of past data points to make a forecast.

Demand for individual products can be driven by product life cycles.

Arnold Tofu owns and operates a chain of 12 vegetable protein "hamburger" restaurants in northern Louisiana.Sales figures and profits for the stores are provided in the table below.Sales are given in millions of dollars;profits are in hundreds of thousands of dollars.Calculate a regression line for the data.What is your forecast of profit for a store with sales of $24 million? $30 million?

Gradual upward or downward movement of data over time is called:

If a forecast is consistently greater than (or less than)actual values,the forecast is said to be biased.

A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data.The three previous July values were 110,135,and 130.The average over all months is 160.What is the approximate seasonal index for July?

An approach to exponential smoothing in which the smoothing constant is automatically changed to keep errors to a minimum is called ________.

What is the difference between an associative model and a time-series model?