Question 1

Focus forecasting tries a variety of computer models and selects the best one for a particular application.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

Given an actual demand this period of 61,a forecast for this period of 58,and an alpha of 0.3,what would the forecast for the next period be using exponential smoothing?

Accepted Answer

A) 45.5 
B) 57.1 
C) 58.9 
D) 61.0 
E) 65.5 
A) 45.5 
B) 57.1 
C) 58.9 
D) 61.0 
E) 65.5

Question 3

The last four weekly values of sales were 80,100,105,and 90 units,respectively.The last four forecasts (for the same four weeks)were 60,80,95,and 75 units,respectively.Calculate the MAD,MSE,and MAPE for these four weeks.

Accepted Answer

MAD = 65/4 = 16.25;M

Question 4

Forecasts of individual products tend to be more accurate than forecasts of product families.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

Forecasts are usually classified by time horizon into which three categories?

Accepted Answer

A) short-range,medium-range,and long-range 
B) finance/accounting,marketing,and operations 
C) strategic,tactical,and operational 
D) exponential smoothing,regression,and time series 
E) departmental,organizational,and industrial 
A) short-range,medium-range,and long-range 
B) finance/accounting,marketing,and operations 
C) strategic,tactical,and operational 
D) exponential smoothing,regression,and time series 
E) departmental,organizational,and industrial

Question 6

Distinguish a dependent variable from an independent variable.

Accepted Answer

The dependent variable is the

Question 7

________ expresses the error as a percent of the actual values.

Accepted Answer

A) MAD 
B) MSE 
C) MAPE 
D) FIT 
E) The smoothing constant 
A) MAD 
B) MSE 
C) MAPE 
D) FIT 
E) The smoothing constant

Question 8

A time-series trend equation is 25.3 + 2.1x.What is your forecast for period 7?

Accepted Answer

A) 23.2 
B) 25.3 
C) 27.4 
D) 40.0 
E) 179.2 
A) 23.2 
B) 25.3 
C) 27.4 
D) 40.0 
E) 179.2

Question 9

Identify two advantages of the moving average forecasting model.Identify two disadvantages of the moving average forecasting model.

Accepted Answer

Advantages of the model include: it uses

Question 10

If a barbershop operator noted that Tuesday's business was typically twice as heavy as Wednesday's,and that Friday's business was typically the busiest of the week,business at the barbershop is subject to ________.

Accepted Answer

seasonal v

Question 11

Forecasts may be influenced by a product's position in its life cycle.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

A naïve forecast for September sales of a product would be equal to the forecast for August.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 13

Which time-series model uses BOTH past forecasts and past demand data to generate a new forecast?

Accepted Answer

A) naïve 
B) moving average 
C) weighted moving average 
D) exponential smoothing 
E) trend projection 
A) naïve 
B) moving average 
C) weighted moving average 
D) exponential smoothing 
E) trend projection

Question 14

________ forecasts employ one or more mathematical models that rely on historical data and/or associative variables to forecast demand.

Accepted Answer

The answer of ________ forecasts employ one or more mathematical...

Question 15

Which of the following most requires long-range forecasting (as opposed to short-range or medium-range forecasting)for its planning purposes?

Accepted Answer

A) job scheduling 
B) production levels 
C) cash budgeting 
D) capital expenditures 
E) purchasing 
A) job scheduling 
B) production levels 
C) cash budgeting 
D) capital expenditures 
E) purchasing

Question 16

As compared to long-range forecasts,short-range forecasts:

Accepted Answer

A) are less accurate. 
B) deal with less comprehensive issues supporting management decisions. 
C) employ similar methodologies. 
D) all of the above 
E) none of the above 
A) are less accurate. 
B) deal with less comprehensive issues supporting management decisions. 
C) employ similar methodologies. 
D) all of the above 
E) none of the above

Question 17

Seasonal indices adjust raw data for patterns that repeat at regular time intervals.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 18

The primary purpose of the mean absolute deviation (MAD)in forecasting is to:

Accepted Answer

A) estimate the trend line. 
B) eliminate forecast errors. 
C) measure forecast accuracy. 
D) seasonally adjust the forecast. 
E) remove random variations. 
A) estimate the trend line. 
B) eliminate forecast errors. 
C) measure forecast accuracy. 
D) seasonally adjust the forecast. 
E) remove random variations.

Question 19

Marie Bain is the production manager at a company that manufactures hot water heaters.Marie needs a demand forecast for the next few years to help decide whether to add new production capacity.The company's sales history (in thousands of units)is shown in the table below.Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast demand for period 6.The initial forecast for period 1 was 11 units;the initial estimate of trend was 0.The smoothing constants are α = .3 and β = .3

Accepted Answer

The answer of Marie Bain is the production manager at...

Question 20

A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data.The three previous July values were 110,150,and 130.The average demand over all months during the three-year time period was 190.What is the approximate seasonal index for July?

Accepted Answer

A) 0.487 
B) 0.684 
C) 1.462 
D) 2.053 
E) cannot be calculated with the information given 
A) 0.487 
B) 0.684 
C) 1.462 
D) 2.053 
E) cannot be calculated with the information given

Exam 4: Forecasting

Focus forecasting tries a variety of computer models and selects the best one for a particular application.

Given an actual demand this period of 61,a forecast for this period of 58,and an alpha of 0.3,what would the forecast for the next period be using exponential smoothing?

The last four weekly values of sales were 80,100,105,and 90 units,respectively.The last four forecasts (for the same four weeks)were 60,80,95,and 75 units,respectively.Calculate the MAD,MSE,and MAPE for these four weeks.

Forecasts of individual products tend to be more accurate than forecasts of product families.

Forecasts are usually classified by time horizon into which three categories?

Distinguish a dependent variable from an independent variable.

________ expresses the error as a percent of the actual values.

A time-series trend equation is 25.3 + 2.1x.What is your forecast for period 7?

Identify two advantages of the moving average forecasting model.Identify two disadvantages of the moving average forecasting model.

If a barbershop operator noted that Tuesday's business was typically twice as heavy as Wednesday's,and that Friday's business was typically the busiest of the week,business at the barbershop is subject to ________.

Forecasts may be influenced by a product's position in its life cycle.

A naïve forecast for September sales of a product would be equal to the forecast for August.

Which time-series model uses BOTH past forecasts and past demand data to generate a new forecast?

________ forecasts employ one or more mathematical models that rely on historical data and/or associative variables to forecast demand.

Which of the following most requires long-range forecasting (as opposed to short-range or medium-range forecasting)for its planning purposes?

As compared to long-range forecasts,short-range forecasts:

Seasonal indices adjust raw data for patterns that repeat at regular time intervals.

The primary purpose of the mean absolute deviation (MAD)in forecasting is to:

A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data.The three previous July values were 110,150,and 130.The average demand over all months during the three-year time period was 190.What is the approximate seasonal index for July?

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