Exam 21: Supply Chain Management Analytics

Suppose that the manager of a company has estimated the probability of a super-event sometime during the next five years that will disrupt all suppliers as 0.23%.In addition,the firm currently uses three suppliers for its main component,and the manager estimates the probability of a unique-event that would disrupt one of them sometime during the next five years to be 1.4%.What is the probability that all three suppliers will be disrupted at the same time at some point during the next five years?

What value of the bullwhip measure would indicate that the bullwhip effect exists?

The primary trade-off in warehouse storage location analysis involves evaluating the number of trips taken for an item vs.the physical weight of that item.

What is the value of the bullwhip measure for a company with a standard deviation of demand equal to 20,and a variance of orders equal to 450?

Which of the following is NOT an element of the disaster risk decision tree model?

The overarching solution to the bullwhip effect is simply for supply chain members to share information and work together.

The items listed below are stored in a one-dock warehouse.In what order should they be placed in the warehouse (moving from closest to the dock to furthest away from the dock)?

Which of the following statements is TRUE regarding the 2011 T hoku earthquake and tsunami?

Over the past six months,Wholesale Foods of Fresno has experienced a standard deviation of demand of 600 units.Standard deviation of its orders during that period was 800 units. (a)What is the bullwhip measure for Wholesale Foods of Fresno? (b)If Wholesale Foods of Fresno had made a perfect forecast of demand over the past 6 months and had decided to order 1/6 of that demand each month,what would its bullwhip measure have been?

Consider the disaster risk decision tree model. (a)Derive a formula to represent the amount that the probability of all suppliers being disrupted simultaneously,P(n),will increase if the super-event probability S is doubled. (b)Test your formula by computing the amount of increase if the original S equals 1% and there are two suppliers,each with U = 4%.

Suppose that the manager of a company has estimated the probability of a super-event sometime during the next three years that will disrupt all suppliers as 2%.In addition,the firm currently uses four suppliers for its main component,and the manager estimates the probability of a unique-event that would disrupt one of them sometime during the next three years to be 20%.Supplier management costs during this period are $50,000 per supplier.The financial cost incurred if all four suppliers are disrupted at the same time is estimated to be $10,000,000.What is the expected monetary value (cost)of the current supplier diversification arrangement?

A grocery store is trying to find a new supplier for carrots.Its three most important supplier criteria are freshness,lot size,and cost,with factor weights of 0.6,0.1,and 0.3,respectively.What would a supplier with ratings of 6,8,and 10 in the three respective categories score as a weighted total?

For the disaster risk decision tree model,explain why an increase in S and an increase in U have the opposite impact on the choice of how many suppliers to use.What is the implication of these two phenomena taken together?

What value of the bullwhip measure would indicate that a dampening scenario exists?

Consider the disaster risk decision tree model.Using the notation from the model,what is the expected monetary value (cost)of choosing two suppliers?

Firms often use multiple suppliers for important components to mitigate the risks of total supply disruption.

The items listed below are stored in a one-dock warehouse.Which of them should be stored at the very back (furthest away from the dock)?

A container of ball-bearings valued at $25,000,currently located in Houston,TX,needs to be delivered to the Morton,IL,plant.The standard shipment method takes two days.However,for an additional charge of $500,the container can be sent overnight to arrive one day later.The annual holding cost rate for this type of item has been estimated at 28%.Which option is more economical?

Tommy's Family Furniture is looking for a new supplier for its armchairs.Tommy is primarily interested in only two criteria: price and name brand value.He considers the value of the name brand to be three times more important than price.Tommy has narrowed his choices to two suppliers.On a 10-point scale,he has assigned Amy's Armchairs a score of 8 on price and 5 on name brand value.He has assigned Annie's Armchairs a score of 3 on price and 6 on name brand value.Apply the factor weighting technique to help Tommy choose a new armchair supplier.

A bullwhip measure value greater than zero indicates that the bullwhip effect exists.