Question 1

A trend projection equation with a slope of 0.78 means that there is a 0.78 unit rise in Y per period.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

The smoothing constant is a weighting factor used in ________.

Accepted Answer

exponentia

Question 3

An approach to exponential smoothing in which the smoothing constant is automatically changed to keep errors to a minimum is called ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of An approach to exponential smoothing in which...

Question 4

If Brandon Edward were working to develop a forecast using a moving averages approach,but he noticed a detectable trend in the historical data,he should:

Accepted Answer

A) use weights to place more emphasis on recent data. 
B) use weights to minimize the importance of the trend. 
C) change to an associative multiple regression approach. 
D) use a simple moving average. 
E) change to a qualitative approach. 
A) use weights to place more emphasis on recent data. 
B) use weights to minimize the importance of the trend. 
C) change to an associative multiple regression approach. 
D) use a simple moving average. 
E) change to a qualitative approach.

Question 5

For a given product demand,the time-series trend equation is 53 - 4x.The negative sign on the slope of the equation:

Accepted Answer

A) is a mathematical impossibility. 
B) is an indication that the forecast is biased,with forecast values lower than actual values. 
C) is an indication that product demand is declining. 
D) implies that the coefficient of determination will also be negative. 
E) implies that the cumulative error will be negative. 
A) is a mathematical impossibility. 
B) is an indication that the forecast is biased,with forecast values lower than actual values. 
C) is an indication that product demand is declining. 
D) implies that the coefficient of determination will also be negative. 
E) implies that the cumulative error will be negative.

Question 6

Identify the four components of a time series.Which one of these is rarely forecast? Why is this so?

Accepted Answer

Trend,seasonality,cycles,and r

Question 7

A skeptical manager asks what long-range forecasts can be used for.Give her three possible uses/purposes.

Accepted Answer

Any three of: planning for new

Question 8

Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 800 units per month,averaged over all 12 months of the year.The product follows a seasonal pattern,for which the January monthly index is 1.25.What is the seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January?

Accepted Answer

A) 640 units 
B) 798.75 units 
C) 801.25 units 
D) 1000 units 
E) 83.33 units 
A) 640 units 
B) 798.75 units 
C) 801.25 units 
D) 1000 units 
E) 83.33 units

Question 9

Give an example,other than a restaurant or other food-service firm,of an organization that experiences an hourly seasonal pattern.(That is,each hour of the day has a pattern that tends to repeat day after day.)Explain.

Accepted Answer

Answer will vary.How

Question 10

Gradual upward or downward movement of data over time is called:

Accepted Answer

A) seasonality. 
B) a cycle. 
C) a trend. 
D) exponential variation. 
E) random variation. 
A) seasonality. 
B) a cycle. 
C) a trend. 
D) exponential variation. 
E) random variation.

Question 11

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is a(n):

Accepted Answer

A) qualitative forecast. 
B) naive forecast. 
C) moving average forecast. 
D) weighted moving average forecast. 
E) exponential smoothing forecast. 
A) qualitative forecast. 
B) naive forecast. 
C) moving average forecast. 
D) weighted moving average forecast. 
E) exponential smoothing forecast.

Question 12

Weekly sales of copy paper at Cubicle Suppliers are provided in the table below.Compute a three-period moving average and a four-period moving average for weeks 5,6,and 7.Compute the MAD for both forecasting methods.Which model is more accurate? Forecast week 8 with the more accurate method.

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& The MAD for the 3-week moving average i

Question 13

Suppose that the demand in period 1 was 7 units and the demand in period 2 was 9 units.Assume that the forecast for period 1 was for 5 units.If the firm uses exponential smoothing with an alpha value of .20,what should be the forecast for period 3? (Round answers to two decimal places.)

Accepted Answer

A) 9.00 
B) 3.72 
C) 9.48 
D) 5.00 
E) 6.12 
A) 9.00 
B) 3.72 
C) 9.48 
D) 5.00 
E) 6.12

Question 14

Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 8,000 units per month,averaged over all 12 months of the year.The product follows a seasonal pattern,for which the January monthly index is 1.25.What is the seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January?

Accepted Answer

8,000 × 1.

Question 15

Given an actual demand this period of 61,a forecast for this period of 58,and an alpha of 0.3,what would the forecast for the next period be using exponential smoothing?

Accepted Answer

A) 45.5 
B) 57.1 
C) 58.9 
D) 61.0 
E) 65.5 
A) 45.5 
B) 57.1 
C) 58.9 
D) 61.0 
E) 65.5

Question 16

Computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment if a signal passes a preset limit is characteristic of:

Accepted Answer

A) exponential smoothing including trend. 
B) adaptive smoothing. 
C) trend projection. 
D) focus forecasting. 
E) multiple regression analysis. 
A) exponential smoothing including trend. 
B) adaptive smoothing. 
C) trend projection. 
D) focus forecasting. 
E) multiple regression analysis.

Question 17

A firm has modeled its experience with industrial accidents and found that the number of accidents per year (y-hat)is related to the number of employees (x)by the regression equation:
y-hat = 3.3 + 0.049x.The r-squared value is 0.68.The regression is based on 20 annual observations.The firm intends to employ 480 workers next year.How many accidents do you project? How much confidence do you have in that forecast?

Accepted Answer

y-hat = 3.3 + 0.049(480)= 3.3 + 23.52 =

Question 18

________ forecasts address the business cycle by predicting inflation rates,money supplies,housing starts,and other planning indicators.

Accepted Answer

The answer of ________ forecasts address the business cycle by...

Question 19

One use of short-range forecasts is to determine:

Accepted Answer

A) planning for new products. 
B) capital expenditures. 
C) research and development plans. 
D) facility location. 
E) job assignments. 
A) planning for new products. 
B) capital expenditures. 
C) research and development plans. 
D) facility location. 
E) job assignments.

Question 20

What is a tracking signal? Explain the connection between adaptive smoothing and tracking signals.

Accepted Answer

A tracking signal is a measure of how we

Exam 4: Forecasting

A trend projection equation with a slope of 0.78 means that there is a 0.78 unit rise in Y per period.

The smoothing constant is a weighting factor used in ________.

An approach to exponential smoothing in which the smoothing constant is automatically changed to keep errors to a minimum is called ________.

If Brandon Edward were working to develop a forecast using a moving averages approach,but he noticed a detectable trend in the historical data,he should:

For a given product demand,the time-series trend equation is 53 - 4x.The negative sign on the slope of the equation:

Identify the four components of a time series.Which one of these is rarely forecast? Why is this so?

A skeptical manager asks what long-range forecasts can be used for.Give her three possible uses/purposes.

Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 800 units per month,averaged over all 12 months of the year.The product follows a seasonal pattern,for which the January monthly index is 1.25.What is the seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January?

Give an example,other than a restaurant or other food-service firm,of an organization that experiences an hourly seasonal pattern.(That is,each hour of the day has a pattern that tends to repeat day after day.)Explain.

Gradual upward or downward movement of data over time is called:

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is a(n):

Weekly sales of copy paper at Cubicle Suppliers are provided in the table below.Compute a three-period moving average and a four-period moving average for weeks 5,6,and 7.Compute the MAD for both forecasting methods.Which model is more accurate? Forecast week 8 with the more accurate method.

Suppose that the demand in period 1 was 7 units and the demand in period 2 was 9 units.Assume that the forecast for period 1 was for 5 units.If the firm uses exponential smoothing with an alpha value of .20,what should be the forecast for period 3? (Round answers to two decimal places.)

Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 8,000 units per month,averaged over all 12 months of the year.The product follows a seasonal pattern,for which the January monthly index is 1.25.What is the seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January?

Given an actual demand this period of 61,a forecast for this period of 58,and an alpha of 0.3,what would the forecast for the next period be using exponential smoothing?

Computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment if a signal passes a preset limit is characteristic of:

________ forecasts address the business cycle by predicting inflation rates,money supplies,housing starts,and other planning indicators.

One use of short-range forecasts is to determine:

What is a tracking signal? Explain the connection between adaptive smoothing and tracking signals.

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