Exam 12: Instrumental Variables Regression

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In the case of exact identification

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Two Stage Least Squares is calculated as follows;in the first stage:

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Using some of the examples from your textbook,describe econometric studies which required instrumental variable techniques.In each case emphasize why the need for instrumental variables arises and how authors have approached the problem.Make sure to include a discussion of overidentification,the validity of instruments,and testing procedures in your essay.

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Your textbook gave an example of attempting to estimate the demand for a good in a market,but being unable to do so because the demand function was not identified.Is this the case for every market? Consider,for example,the demand for sports events.One of your peers estimated the following demand function after collecting data over two years for every one of the 162 home games of the 2000 and 2001 season for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Your textbook gave an example of attempting to estimate the demand for a good in a market,but being unable to do so because the demand function was not identified.Is this the case for every market? Consider,for example,the demand for sports events.One of your peers estimated the following demand function after collecting data over two years for every one of the 162 home games of the 2000 and 2001 season for the Los Angeles Dodgers.   = 15,005 + 201 × Temperat + 465 × DodgNetWin + 82 × OppNetWin (8,770)(121)(169)(26) + 9647 × DFSaSu + 1328 × Drain + 1609 × D150m + 271 × DDiv - 978 × D2001; (1505)(3355)(1819)(1,184)(1,143) R2 = 0.416,SER = 6983 Where Attend is announced stadium attendance,Temperat it the average temperature on game day,DodgNetWin are the net wins of the Dodgers before the game (wins-losses),OppNetWin is the opposing team's net wins at the end of the previous season,and DFSaSu,Drain,D150m,Ddiv,and D2001 are binary variables,taking a value of 1 if the game was played on a weekend,it rained during that day,the opposing team was within a 150 mile radius,plays in the same division as the Dodgers,and during 2001,respectively.Numbers in parenthesis are heteroskedasticity- robust standard errors. Even if there is no identification problem,is it likely that all regressors are uncorrelated with the error term? If not,what are the consequences? = 15,005 + 201 × Temperat + 465 × DodgNetWin + 82 × OppNetWin (8,770)(121)(169)(26) + 9647 × DFSaSu + 1328 × Drain + 1609 × D150m + 271 × DDiv - 978 × D2001; (1505)(3355)(1819)(1,184)(1,143) R2 = 0.416,SER = 6983 Where Attend is announced stadium attendance,Temperat it the average temperature on game day,DodgNetWin are the net wins of the Dodgers before the game (wins-losses),OppNetWin is the opposing team's net wins at the end of the previous season,and DFSaSu,Drain,D150m,Ddiv,and D2001 are binary variables,taking a value of 1 if the game was played on a weekend,it rained during that day,the opposing team was within a 150 mile radius,plays in the same division as the Dodgers,and during 2001,respectively.Numbers in parenthesis are heteroskedasticity- robust standard errors. Even if there is no identification problem,is it likely that all regressors are uncorrelated with the error term? If not,what are the consequences?

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Consider the a model of the U.S.labor market where the demand for labor depends on the real wage,while the supply of labor is vertical and does not depend on the real wage.You could argue that the supply of labor by households (think of hours supplied by two adults and two children)has not changed much over the last 60 years or so in the U.S.while real wages more than doubled over the same time span.At first that seems strange given the higher participation rate of females over that period,but that increase has been countered by a lower male participation rate (resulting from earlier retirement),an increase in legal holidays,and an increase in vacation days. a.Write down two equations representing the labor supply and labor demand function,allowing for an error term in each of the demand and supply equation.In addition,assume that the labor market clears. b.How would you estimate the labor supply equation? c.Assuming that the error terms are mutually independent i.i.d.random variables,both with mean zero,show that the real wage and the error term of the labor demand equation are correlated. d.If you find a non-zero correlation,should you estimate the labor demand equation using OLS? If so,what are the consequences? e.Estimating the labor demand equation by IV estimation,which instrument suggests itself immediately?

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The IV regression assumptions include all of the following with the exception of

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The TSLS estimator is

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The conditions for a valid instruments do not include the following:

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Write a short essay about the Overidentifying Restrictions Test.What is meant exactly by "overidentification?" State the null hypothesis.Describe how to calculate the J-statistic and what its distribution is.Use an example of two instruments and one endogenous variable to explain under what situation the test will be likely to reject the null hypothesis.What does this example tell you about the exactly identified case? If your variables pass the test,is this sufficient for these variables to be good instruments?

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Consider a model with one endogenous regressor and two instruments.Then the J-statistic will be large

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Having more relevant instruments

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(Requires Chapter 8)When using panel data and in the presence of endogenous regressors

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You have been hired as a consultant to estimate the demand for various brands of coffee in the market.You are provided with annual price data for two years by U.S.state and the quantities sold.You want to estimate a demand function for coffee using this data.What problems do you think you will encounter if you estimated the demand equation by OLS?

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You started your econometrics course by studying the OLS estimator extensively,first for the simple regression case and then for extensions of it.You have now learned about the instrumental variable estimator.Under what situation would you prefer one to the other? Be specific in explaining under which situations one estimation method generates superior results.

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Consider the following two equations to describe labor markets in various sectors of the economy Nd = β0 + β1 Consider the following two equations to describe labor markets in various sectors of the economy Nd = β0 + β1   + u Ns = γ0 + γ1   + v Nd = Ns = N + u Ns = γ0 + γ1 Consider the following two equations to describe labor markets in various sectors of the economy Nd = β0 + β1   + u Ns = γ0 + γ1   + v Nd = Ns = N + v Nd = Ns = N

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Instrumental Variables regression uses instruments to

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The reduced form equation for X

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The J-statistic

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You have estimated a government reaction function,i.e. ,a multiple regression equation,where a government instrument,say the federal funds rate,depends on past government target variables,such as inflation and unemployment rates.In addition,you added the previous period's popularity deficit of the government,e.g.the (approval rating of the president - 50%),as one of the regressors.Your idea is that the Federal Reserve,although formally independent,will try to expand the economy if the president is unpopular.One of your peers,a political science student,points out that approval ratings depend on the state of the economy and thereby indirectly on government instruments.It is therefore endogenous and should be estimated along with the reaction function.Initially you want to reply by using a phrase that includes the words "money neutrality" but are worried about a lengthy debate.Instead you state that as an economist,you are not concerned about government approval ratings,and that government approval ratings are determined outside your (the economic)model.Does your whim make the regressor exogenous? Why or why not?

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(Requires Appendix material)The relationship between the TSLS slope and the corresponding population parameter is:

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