Exam 12: Instrumental Variables Regression

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Let W be the included exogenous variables in a regression function that also has endogenous regressors (X).The W variables can

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The logic of control variables in IV regressions

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Estimation of the IV regression model

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For W to be an effective control variable in IV estimation,the following condition must hold

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Write an essay about where valid instruments come from.Part of your explorations must deal with checking the validity of instruments and what the consequences of weak instruments are.

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In practice,the most difficult aspect of IV estimation is

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Weak instruments are a problem because

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When calculating the TSLS standard errors

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The distinction between endogenous and exogenous variables is

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In the case of the simple regression model Yi = β0 + β1Xi + ui,i = 1,…,n,when X and u are correlated,then

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The following will not cause correlation between X and u in the simple regression model:

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To study the determinants of growth between the countries of the world,researchers have used panels of countries and observations spanning over long periods of time .Some of these studies have focused on the effect that inflation has on growth and found that although the effect is small for a given time period,it accumulates over time and therefore has an important negative effect. (a)Explain why the OLS estimator may be biased in this case. (b)Explain how methods using panel data could potentially alleviate the problem. (c)Some authors have suggested using an index of central bank independence as an instrumental.Discuss whether or not such an index would be a valid instrument.

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Endogenous variables

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Here are some examples of the instrumental variables regression model.In each case you are given the number of instruments and the J-statistic.Find the relevant value from the Here are some examples of the instrumental variables regression model.In each case you are given the number of instruments and the J-statistic.Find the relevant value from the   distribution,using a 1% and 5% significance level,and make a decision whether or not to reject the null hypothesis. (a)Yi = β0 + β1X1i + ui,i = 1,... ,n;Z1i,Z2i are valid instruments,J = 2.58. (b)Yi = β0 + β1X1i + β2X2i + β3W1i + ui,i = 1,... ,n;Z1i,Z2i,Z3i,Z4i are valid instruments,J = 9.63. (c)Yi = β0 + β1X1i + β2W1i + β3W2i + β4W3i + ui,i = 1,... ,n;Z1i,Z2i,Z3i,Z4i are valid instruments,J = 11.86. distribution,using a 1% and 5% significance level,and make a decision whether or not to reject the null hypothesis. (a)Yi = β0 + β1X1i + ui,i = 1,... ,n;Z1i,Z2i are valid instruments,J = 2.58. (b)Yi = β0 + β1X1i + β2X2i + β3W1i + ui,i = 1,... ,n;Z1i,Z2i,Z3i,Z4i are valid instruments,J = 9.63. (c)Yi = β0 + β1X1i + β2W1i + β3W2i + β4W3i + ui,i = 1,... ,n;Z1i,Z2i,Z3i,Z4i are valid instruments,J = 11.86.

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The two conditions for a valid instrument are

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When there is a single instrument and single regressor,the TSLS estimator for the slope can be calculated as follows:

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Consider the following model of demand and supply of coffee: Demand: Consider the following model of demand and supply of coffee: Demand:   = β1   + β2   + ui Supply:   = β3   + β4   + β5Weather + vi (variables are measure in deviations from means,so that the constant is omitted). What are the expected signs of the various coefficients this model? Assume that the price of tea and Weather are exogenous variables.Are the coefficients in the supply equation identified? Are the coefficients in the demand equation identified? Are they overidentified? Is this result surprising given that there are more exogenous regressors in the second equation? = β1 Consider the following model of demand and supply of coffee: Demand:   = β1   + β2   + ui Supply:   = β3   + β4   + β5Weather + vi (variables are measure in deviations from means,so that the constant is omitted). What are the expected signs of the various coefficients this model? Assume that the price of tea and Weather are exogenous variables.Are the coefficients in the supply equation identified? Are the coefficients in the demand equation identified? Are they overidentified? Is this result surprising given that there are more exogenous regressors in the second equation? + β2 Consider the following model of demand and supply of coffee: Demand:   = β1   + β2   + ui Supply:   = β3   + β4   + β5Weather + vi (variables are measure in deviations from means,so that the constant is omitted). What are the expected signs of the various coefficients this model? Assume that the price of tea and Weather are exogenous variables.Are the coefficients in the supply equation identified? Are the coefficients in the demand equation identified? Are they overidentified? Is this result surprising given that there are more exogenous regressors in the second equation? + ui Supply: Consider the following model of demand and supply of coffee: Demand:   = β1   + β2   + ui Supply:   = β3   + β4   + β5Weather + vi (variables are measure in deviations from means,so that the constant is omitted). What are the expected signs of the various coefficients this model? Assume that the price of tea and Weather are exogenous variables.Are the coefficients in the supply equation identified? Are the coefficients in the demand equation identified? Are they overidentified? Is this result surprising given that there are more exogenous regressors in the second equation? = β3 Consider the following model of demand and supply of coffee: Demand:   = β1   + β2   + ui Supply:   = β3   + β4   + β5Weather + vi (variables are measure in deviations from means,so that the constant is omitted). What are the expected signs of the various coefficients this model? Assume that the price of tea and Weather are exogenous variables.Are the coefficients in the supply equation identified? Are the coefficients in the demand equation identified? Are they overidentified? Is this result surprising given that there are more exogenous regressors in the second equation? + β4 Consider the following model of demand and supply of coffee: Demand:   = β1   + β2   + ui Supply:   = β3   + β4   + β5Weather + vi (variables are measure in deviations from means,so that the constant is omitted). What are the expected signs of the various coefficients this model? Assume that the price of tea and Weather are exogenous variables.Are the coefficients in the supply equation identified? Are the coefficients in the demand equation identified? Are they overidentified? Is this result surprising given that there are more exogenous regressors in the second equation? + β5Weather + vi (variables are measure in deviations from means,so that the constant is omitted). What are the expected signs of the various coefficients this model? Assume that the price of tea and Weather are exogenous variables.Are the coefficients in the supply equation identified? Are the coefficients in the demand equation identified? Are they overidentified? Is this result surprising given that there are more exogenous regressors in the second equation?

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The rule-of-thumb for checking for weak instruments is as follows: for the case of a single endogenous regressor,

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Describe the consequences of estimating an equation by OLS in the presence of an endogenous regressor.How can you overcome these obstacles? Present an alternative estimator and state its properties.

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Consider a competitive market where the demand and the supply depend on the current price of the good.Then fitting a line through the quantity-price outcomes will

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