Exam 2: Review of Probability

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var(aX + bY)=

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What would the correlation coefficient be if all observations for the two variables were on a curve described by Y = X2?

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Two random variables X and Y are independently distributed if all of the following conditions hold,with the exception of

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The variance of The variance of   ,is given by the following formula: ,is given by the following formula:

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Assume that you assign the following subjective probabilities for your final grade in your econometrics course (the standard GPA scale of 4 = A to 0 = F applies): Assume that you assign the following subjective probabilities for your final grade in your econometrics course (the standard GPA scale of 4 = A to 0 = F applies):   The expected value is: The expected value is:

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Looking at a large CPS data set with over 60,000 observations for the United States and the year 2004,you find that the average number of years of education is approximately 13.6.However,a surprising large number of individuals (approximately 800)have quite a low value for this variable,namely 6 years or less.You decide to drop these observations,since none of your relatives or friends have that few years of education.In addition,you are concerned that if these individuals cannot report the years of education correctly,then the observations on other variables,such as average hourly earnings,can also not be trusted.As a matter of fact you have found several of these to be below minimum wages in your state.Discuss if dropping the observations is reasonable.

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Probabilities and relative frequencies are related in that the probability of an outcome is the proportion of the time that the outcome occurs in the long run.Hence concepts of joint,marginal,and conditional probability distributions stem from related concepts of frequency distributions. You are interested in investigating the relationship between the age of heads of households and weekly earnings of households.The accompanying data gives the number of occurrences grouped by age and income.You collect data from 1,744 individuals and think of these individuals as a population that you want to describe,rather than a sample from which you want to infer behavior of a larger population.After sorting the data,you generate the accompanying table: Joint Absolute Frequencies of Age and Income,1,744 Households Age of head of household X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 Probabilities and relative frequencies are related in that the probability of an outcome is the proportion of the time that the outcome occurs in the long run.Hence concepts of joint,marginal,and conditional probability distributions stem from related concepts of frequency distributions. You are interested in investigating the relationship between the age of heads of households and weekly earnings of households.The accompanying data gives the number of occurrences grouped by age and income.You collect data from 1,744 individuals and think of these individuals as a population that you want to describe,rather than a sample from which you want to infer behavior of a larger population.After sorting the data,you generate the accompanying table: Joint Absolute Frequencies of Age and Income,1,744 Households Age of head of household X1 X2 X3 X4 X5   The median of the income group of $800 and above is $1,050. (a)Calculate the joint relative frequencies and the marginal relative frequencies.Interpret one of each of these.Sketch the cumulative income distribution. (b)Calculate the conditional relative income frequencies for the two age categories 16-under 20,and 45-under 65.Calculate the mean household income for both age categories. (c)If household income and age of head of household were independently distributed,what would you expect these two conditional relative income distributions to look like? Are they similar here? (d)Your textbook has given you a primary definition of independence that does not involve conditional relative frequency distributions.What is that definition? Do you think that age and income are independent here,using this definition? The median of the income group of $800 and above is $1,050. (a)Calculate the joint relative frequencies and the marginal relative frequencies.Interpret one of each of these.Sketch the cumulative income distribution. (b)Calculate the conditional relative income frequencies for the two age categories 16-under 20,and 45-under 65.Calculate the mean household income for both age categories. (c)If household income and age of head of household were independently distributed,what would you expect these two conditional relative income distributions to look like? Are they similar here? (d)Your textbook has given you a primary definition of independence that does not involve conditional relative frequency distributions.What is that definition? Do you think that age and income are independent here,using this definition?

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For a normal distribution,the skewness and kurtosis measures are as follows:

(Multiple Choice)
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Using the fact that the standardized variable Z is a linear transformation of the normally distributed random variable Y,derive the expected value and variance of Z.

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Math and verbal SAT scores are each distributed normally with N (500,10000). (a)What fraction of students scores above 750? Above 600? Between 420 and 530? Below 480? Above 530? (b)If the math and verbal scores were independently distributed,which is not the case,then what would be the distribution of the overall SAT score? Find its mean and variance. (c)Next,assume that the correlation coefficient between the math and verbal scores is 0.75.Find the mean and variance of the resulting distribution. (d)Finally,assume that you had chosen 25 students at random who had taken the SAT exam.Derive the distribution for their average math SAT score.What is the probability that this average is above 530? Why is this so much smaller than your answer in (a)?

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The Student t distribution is

(Multiple Choice)
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If variables with a multivariate normal distribution have covariances that equal zero,then

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The central limit theorem

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The height of male students at your college/university is normally distributed with a mean of 70 inches and a standard deviation of 3.5 inches.If you had a list of telephone numbers for male students for the purpose of conducting a survey,what would be the probability of randomly calling one of these students whose height is (a)taller than 6'0"? (b)between 5'3" and 6'5"? (c)shorter than 5'7",the mean height of female students? (d)shorter than 5'0"? (e)taller than Shaquille O'Neal,the center of the Boston Celtics,who is 7'1" tall? Compare this to the probability of a woman being pregnant for 10 months (300 days),where days of pregnancy is normally distributed with a mean of 266 days and a standard deviation of 16 days.

(Essay)
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Show in a scatterplot what the relationship between two variables X and Y would look like if there was (a)a strong negative correlation. (b)a strong positive correlation. (c)no correlation.

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Assume that Y is normally distributed N(μ,σ2).Moving from the mean (μ)1.96 standard deviations to the left and 1.96 standard deviations to the right,then the area under the normal p.d.f.is

(Multiple Choice)
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The probability of an outcome

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The accompanying table shows the joint distribution between the change of the unemployment rate in an election year and the share of the candidate of the incumbent party since 1928.You think of this data as a population which you want to describe,rather than a sample from which you want to infer behavior of a larger population. Joint Distribution of Unemployment Rate Change and Incumbent Party's Vote Share in Total Vote Cast for the Two Major-Party Candidates, 1928-2000 The accompanying table shows the joint distribution between the change of the unemployment rate in an election year and the share of the candidate of the incumbent party since 1928.You think of this data as a population which you want to describe,rather than a sample from which you want to infer behavior of a larger population. Joint Distribution of Unemployment Rate Change and Incumbent Party's Vote Share in Total Vote Cast for the Two Major-Party Candidates, 1928-2000    (a)Compute and interpret E(Y)and E(X). (b)Calculate E(Y   = 1)and E(Y   = 0).Did you expect these to be very different? (c)What is the probability that the unemployment rate decreases in an election year? (d)Conditional on the unemployment rate decreasing,what is the probability that an incumbent will lose the election? (e)What would the joint distribution look like under independence? (a)Compute and interpret E(Y)and E(X). (b)Calculate E(Y The accompanying table shows the joint distribution between the change of the unemployment rate in an election year and the share of the candidate of the incumbent party since 1928.You think of this data as a population which you want to describe,rather than a sample from which you want to infer behavior of a larger population. Joint Distribution of Unemployment Rate Change and Incumbent Party's Vote Share in Total Vote Cast for the Two Major-Party Candidates, 1928-2000    (a)Compute and interpret E(Y)and E(X). (b)Calculate E(Y   = 1)and E(Y   = 0).Did you expect these to be very different? (c)What is the probability that the unemployment rate decreases in an election year? (d)Conditional on the unemployment rate decreasing,what is the probability that an incumbent will lose the election? (e)What would the joint distribution look like under independence? = 1)and E(Y The accompanying table shows the joint distribution between the change of the unemployment rate in an election year and the share of the candidate of the incumbent party since 1928.You think of this data as a population which you want to describe,rather than a sample from which you want to infer behavior of a larger population. Joint Distribution of Unemployment Rate Change and Incumbent Party's Vote Share in Total Vote Cast for the Two Major-Party Candidates, 1928-2000    (a)Compute and interpret E(Y)and E(X). (b)Calculate E(Y   = 1)and E(Y   = 0).Did you expect these to be very different? (c)What is the probability that the unemployment rate decreases in an election year? (d)Conditional on the unemployment rate decreasing,what is the probability that an incumbent will lose the election? (e)What would the joint distribution look like under independence? = 0).Did you expect these to be very different? (c)What is the probability that the unemployment rate decreases in an election year? (d)Conditional on the unemployment rate decreasing,what is the probability that an incumbent will lose the election? (e)What would the joint distribution look like under independence?

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The central limit theorem states that

(Multiple Choice)
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