Exam 10: Measuring Exposure to Exchange Rate Fluctuations

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One argument why exchange rate risk is irrelevant to corporations is that shareholders may be able to hedge this risk individually.

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Regression analysis cannot be used to assess the sensitivity of a company's performance to economic conditions because economic conditions are unpredictable.

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Which of the following is not true regarding currency correlations?

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A firm produces products for which substitute products are produced in all countries. Appreciation of the firm's local currency should:

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Jensen Co. expects to pay €50,000 in one month for its imports from France. It also expects to receive €200,000 for its exports to Belgium in one month. Jensen estimates the standard deviation of monthly percentage changes of the euro to be 2.5 percent over the last 50 months. Assume that these percentage changes are normally distributed. Using the value-at-risk (VaR) method based on a 97.5 percent confidence level, what is the maximum one month loss in dollars if the expected percentage change of the euro during next month is 2 percent? Assume that the current spot rate of the euro (before considering the maximum one-month loss) is $1.35.

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Assume that Mill Corp., a U.S.-based MNC, has applied the following regression model to estimate the sensitivity of its cash flows to exchange rate movements: PCFt=a0+a1et+μt \mathrm{PCF}_{t}=a_{0}+a_{1} e_{t}+\mu t where the term on the leFt-hand side is the percentage change in inflation-adjusted cash flows measured in the firm's home currency over period t, and et is the percentage change in the exchange rate of the currency over period t. The regression model estimates a coefficient of a₁ of 2. This indicates that:

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Economic exposure refers to:

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Which of the following is not true regarding economic exposure?

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Magent Co. is a U.S. company that has exposure to the Swiss franc (SF) and Danish kroner (DK). It has net inflows of SF200 million and net outflows of DK500 million. The present exchange rate of the SF is about $.40 while the present exchange rate of the DK is $.10. Magent Co. has not hedged these positions. The SF and DK are highly correlated in their movements against the dollar. If the dollar weakens, then Magent Co. will:

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The VaR method assumes that the volatility (standard deviation) of exchange rate movements changes over time.

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Transaction exposure reflects:

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If the net inflow of one currency is about the same amount as a net outflow in another currency, the firm will benefit if these two currencies are negatively correlated because the transaction exposure is offset.

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Which of the following is not a form of exposure to exchange rate fluctuations?

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Consider an MNC that is exposed to the Taiwan dollar (TWD) and the Egyptian pound (EGP); 25 percent of the MNC's funds are Taiwan dollars and 75 percent are pounds. The standard deviation of exchange movements is 7 percent for Taiwan dollars and 5 percent for pounds. The correlation coefficient between movements in the value of the Taiwan dollar and the pound is .7. Based on this information, the standard deviation of this two-currency portfolio is approximately:

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U.S. exporters may not necessarily benefit from weak-dollar periods if foreign competitors are willing to reduce their profit margins.

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A firm produces products for which substitute products are produced in all countries. Depreciation of the firm's local currency should:

(Multiple Choice)
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If positions in a specific currency among an MNC's subsidiaries offset each other, the decision by one subsidiary to hedge its position in that currency would increase the MNC's overall exposure.

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An MNC's stock valuation will not be affected by translation exposure if the MNC's consolidated financial statements are prepared according to the accounting rules in FASB 52.

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Treck Co. expects to pay €200,000 in one month for its imports from Spain. It also expects to receive €250,000 for its exports to Italy in one month. Treck Co. estimates the standard deviation of monthly percentage changes of the euro to be 3 percent over the last 40 months. Assume that these percentage changes are normally distributed. Using the value-at-risk (VaR) method based on a 95 percent confidence level, what is the maximum one-month loss in dollars if the expected percentage change of the euro during next month is -2 percent? Assume that the current spot rate of the euro (before considering the maximum one-month loss) is $1.23.

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An MNC can avoid translation exposure if its foreign subsidiaries do not remit their earnings to the parent.

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