Question 1

________ methods of forecasting translate the opinions of management, experts, consumers, or salesforce into quantitative estimates.

Accepted Answer

The answer of ________ methods of forecasting translate the opinions...

Question 2

With the multiplicative seasonal method of forecasting:

Accepted Answer

A)  the times series cannot exhibit a trend. 
B)  seasonal factors are multiplied by an estimate of average demand to arrive at a seasonal forecast. 
C)  the seasonal amplitude is a constant, regardless of the magnitude of average demand. 
D)  there can be only four seasons in the time-series data. 
A)  the times series cannot exhibit a trend. 
B)  seasonal factors are multiplied by an estimate of average demand to arrive at a seasonal forecast. 
C)  the seasonal amplitude is a constant, regardless of the magnitude of average demand. 
D)  there can be only four seasons in the time-series data.

Question 3

The marketing department for a major manufacturer tracks sales and advertising expenditures each month. Data from the past nine months and regression output appear in the following table. Interpret the equation coefficients and the values for the coefficient of determination and the correlation coefficient.

Created by POM-QM for Windows

Accepted Answer

The regression equation is:
Y = a + bX
S

Question 4

Table 8.3
A textbook publisher for books used in business schools believes that the number of books sold is related to the number of campus visits to decision makers made by their sales force. A sampling of the number of sales calls made and the number of books sold is shown in the following table.

-Use the information provided in Table 8.3. In order to realize the sale of 700 books, how many sales calls will the sales representative have to make?

Accepted Answer

A)  40.4 
B)  45.9 
C)  32.7 
D)  37.6 
A)  40.4 
B)  45.9 
C)  32.7 
D)  37.6

Question 5

Table 8.5
  
-Use the information in Table 8.5. Using the simple moving-average technique for the most recent three months, what will be the forecasted demand for November?

Accepted Answer

A)  fewer than or equal to 260 units 
B)  greater than 260, but fewer than or equal to 275 units 
C)  greater than 275, but fewer than or equal to 290 units 
D)  more than 290 units 
A)  fewer than or equal to 260 units 
B)  greater than 260, but fewer than or equal to 275 units 
C)  greater than 275, but fewer than or equal to 290 units 
D)  more than 290 units

Question 6

Table 8.1
The management of an insurance company monitors the number of mistakes made by telephone service representatives for a company they have subcontracted with. The number of mistakes for the past several months appears in this table along with forecasts for errors made with three different forecasting techniques. The column labeled Exponential was created using exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.30. The column labeled MA is forecast using a moving average of three periods. The column labeled WMA uses a 3-month weighted moving average with weights of 0.65, 0.25, and 0.10 for the most-to-least recent months.
  
-Using Table 8.1, what is the CFE for months 6-10 for the exponential smoothing technique?

Accepted Answer

A)  less than or equal to 120 
B)  greater than 120 but less than or equal to 123 
C)  greater than 123 but less than or equal to 126 
D)  greater than 126 
A)  less than or equal to 120 
B)  greater than 120 but less than or equal to 123 
C)  greater than 123 but less than or equal to 126 
D)  greater than 126

Question 7

Table 8.5
  
-Use the information in Table 8.5. Using the 4-month weighted moving-average technique and the following weights, what is the forecasted demand for November?

Accepted Answer

A)  fewer than or equal to 250 units 
B)  greater than 250 but fewer than or equal to 265 units 
C)  greater than 265 but fewer than or equal to 280 units 
D)  more than 280 units 
A)  fewer than or equal to 250 units 
B)  greater than 250 but fewer than or equal to 265 units 
C)  greater than 265 but fewer than or equal to 280 units 
D)  more than 280 units

Question 8

Combination forecasting is most effective when the techniques being combined contribute different kinds of information to the forecasting process.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

The trend projection with regression model can forecast demand well into the future.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

Graph 8.1
Data plotted in the graph appear in the table below.

-Refer to Graph 8.1. What is the average demand for the second period?

Accepted Answer

A)  63.57 
B)  50.71 
C)  82.5 
D)  93.5 
A)  63.57 
B)  50.71 
C)  82.5 
D)  93.5

Question 11

Which one of the following statements about the patterns of a demand series is False?

Accepted Answer

A)  The five basic patterns of most business demand series are the horizontal, trend, seasonal, cyclical, and random patterns. 
B)  Estimating cyclical movement is difficult. Forecasters do not know the duration of the cycle because they cannot predict the events that cause it. 
C)  The trend, over an extended period of time, always increases the average level of the series. 
D)  Every demand series has at least a random component. 
A)  The five basic patterns of most business demand series are the horizontal, trend, seasonal, cyclical, and random patterns. 
B)  Estimating cyclical movement is difficult. Forecasters do not know the duration of the cycle because they cannot predict the events that cause it. 
C)  The trend, over an extended period of time, always increases the average level of the series. 
D)  Every demand series has at least a random component.

Question 12

Calculate three forecasts using the following data. First, for periods 4 through 10, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F₃) of 120.0 and an alpha of 0.3. Second, calculate the three-period moving-average forecast for periods 4 through 10. Third, calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 10, using weights of .60, .30, and .10. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and the cumulative sum of forecast error (CFE) for each forecasting procedure. Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why?

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& 
 @#IMG-DLM& Using MAD, the simple movi

Question 13

Table 8.1
The management of an insurance company monitors the number of mistakes made by telephone service representatives for a company they have subcontracted with. The number of mistakes for the past several months appears in this table along with forecasts for errors made with three different forecasting techniques. The column labeled Exponential was created using exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.30. The column labeled MA is forecast using a moving average of three periods. The column labeled WMA uses a 3-month weighted moving average with weights of 0.65, 0.25, and 0.10 for the most-to-least recent months.
  
-Using Table 8.1, what is the MAD for months 6-10 for the exponential smoothing technique?

Accepted Answer

A)  less than 23 
B)  greater than or equal to 23 but less than 25 
C)  greater than or equal to 25 but less than 27 
D)  greater than or equal to 27 
A)  less than 23 
B)  greater than or equal to 23 but less than 25 
C)  greater than or equal to 25 but less than 27 
D)  greater than or equal to 27

Question 14

The Delphi method of forecasting is useful when:

Accepted Answer

A)  judgment and opinion are the only bases for making informed projections. 
B)  a systematic approach to creating and testing hypotheses is needed and the data are usually gathered by sending a questionnaire to consumers. 
C)  historical data are available and the relationship between the factor to be forecast and other external or internal factors can be identified. 
D)  historical data is available and the best basis for making projections is to use past demand patterns. 
A)  judgment and opinion are the only bases for making informed projections. 
B)  a systematic approach to creating and testing hypotheses is needed and the data are usually gathered by sending a questionnaire to consumers. 
C)  historical data are available and the relationship between the factor to be forecast and other external or internal factors can be identified. 
D)  historical data is available and the best basis for making projections is to use past demand patterns.

Question 15

A weary traveler shows up at a hotel desk at midnight without a reservation. The desk clerk informs him that there is a room available, but sadly it is marked up 80% higher than the usual price. This is an example of:

Accepted Answer

A)  promotional pricing. 
B)  yield management. 
C)  backlogs. 
D)  backorder. 
A)  promotional pricing. 
B)  yield management. 
C)  backlogs. 
D)  backorder.

Question 16

A linear regression model results in the equation Y = 15 - 23X. If the coefficient of determination is a perfect 1.0, the correlation coefficient must be -1.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

Table 8.2
The Agricultural Extension Agent's Office has tracked fertilizer application and crop yields for a variety of chickpea and has recorded the data shown in the following table. Their staff statistician developed the regression model and computed the performance statistics displayed below the data.
  
-Use the information provided in Table 8.2. For every unit of fertilizer applied, the crop yield increases by:

Accepted Answer

A)  8.0 bushels. 
B)  8.5 bushels. 
C)  8.9 bushels. 
D)  7.9 bushels. 
A)  8.0 bushels. 
B)  8.5 bushels. 
C)  8.9 bushels. 
D)  7.9 bushels.

Question 18

Table 8.3
A textbook publisher for books used in business schools believes that the number of books sold is related to the number of campus visits to decision makers made by their sales force. A sampling of the number of sales calls made and the number of books sold is shown in the following table.

-Use the information provided in Table 8.3. What percent in the variation of the variable Books Sold is explained by the value of the variable Sales Calls Made?

Accepted Answer

A)  86.5% 
B)  83.3% 
C)  74.8% 
D)  72.5% 
A)  86.5% 
B)  83.3% 
C)  74.8% 
D)  72.5%

Question 19

Why are forecasts for product families typically more accurate than forecasts for the individual items within a product family?

Accepted Answer

More accurate forecasts are ob

Question 20

The number of #2 pencils the bookstore sells appears to be highly correlated with the number of student credit hours each semester. The bookstore manager wants to create a linear regression model to assist her in placing an appropriate order. In this scenario:

Accepted Answer

A)  the dependent variable is student credit hours. 
B)  there are two independent variables. 
C)  there are two dependent variables. 
D)  the independent variable is student credit hours. 
A)  the dependent variable is student credit hours. 
B)  there are two independent variables. 
C)  there are two dependent variables. 
D)  the independent variable is student credit hours.

________ methods of forecasting translate the opinions of management, experts, consumers, or salesforce into quantitative estimates.

With the multiplicative seasonal method of forecasting:

Table 8.5 -Use the information in Table 8.5. Using the simple moving-average technique for the most recent three months, what will be the forecasted demand for November?

Table 8.5 -Use the information in Table 8.5. Using the 4-month weighted moving-average technique and the following weights, what is the forecasted demand for November?

Combination forecasting is most effective when the techniques being combined contribute different kinds of information to the forecasting process.

The trend projection with regression model can forecast demand well into the future.

Graph 8.1 Data plotted in the graph appear in the table below. -Refer to Graph 8.1. What is the average demand for the second period?

Which one of the following statements about the patterns of a demand series is False?

The Delphi method of forecasting is useful when:

A weary traveler shows up at a hotel desk at midnight without a reservation. The desk clerk informs him that there is a room available, but sadly it is marked up 80% higher than the usual price. This is an example of:

A linear regression model results in the equation Y = 15 - 23X. If the coefficient of determination is a perfect 1.0, the correlation coefficient must be -1.

Why are forecasts for product families typically more accurate than forecasts for the individual items within a product family?

The number of #2 pencils the bookstore sells appears to be highly correlated with the number of student credit hours each semester. The bookstore manager wants to create a linear regression model to assist her in placing an appropriate order. In this scenario:

Using Operations to Create Value

Process Strategy and Analysis

Quality and Performance

Capacity Planning

Constraint Management

Lean Systems

Project Management

Inventory Management

Operations Planning and Scheduling

Resource Planning

Supply Chain Design

Supply Chain Logistic Networks

Supply Chain Integration

Supply Chain Sustainability

Supplement A Decision Making

Supplement J Operations Scheduling

Supplement K Layout

Supplement B Waiting Lines

Supplement C Special Inventory Models

Supplement D Linear Programming

Supplement E Simulation

Supplement F Financial Analysis

Supplement G Acceptance Sampling Plans

Supplement H Measuring Output Rates

Supplement I Learning Curve Analysis

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Exam 8: Forecasting

________ methods of forecasting translate the opinions of management, experts, consumers, or salesforce into quantitative estimates.

With the multiplicative seasonal method of forecasting:

Table 8.5 -Use the information in Table 8.5. Using the simple moving-average technique for the most recent three months, what will be the forecasted demand for November?

Table 8.5 -Use the information in Table 8.5. Using the 4-month weighted moving-average technique and the following weights, what is the forecasted demand for November?

Combination forecasting is most effective when the techniques being combined contribute different kinds of information to the forecasting process.

The trend projection with regression model can forecast demand well into the future.

Graph 8.1 Data plotted in the graph appear in the table below. -Refer to Graph 8.1. What is the average demand for the second period?

Which one of the following statements about the patterns of a demand series is False?

The Delphi method of forecasting is useful when:

A weary traveler shows up at a hotel desk at midnight without a reservation. The desk clerk informs him that there is a room available, but sadly it is marked up 80% higher than the usual price. This is an example of:

A linear regression model results in the equation Y = 15 - 23X. If the coefficient of determination is a perfect 1.0, the correlation coefficient must be -1.

Why are forecasts for product families typically more accurate than forecasts for the individual items within a product family?

The number of #2 pencils the bookstore sells appears to be highly correlated with the number of student credit hours each semester. The bookstore manager wants to create a linear regression model to assist her in placing an appropriate order. In this scenario:

Using Operations to Create Value

Process Strategy and Analysis

Quality and Performance

Capacity Planning

Constraint Management

Lean Systems

Project Management

Inventory Management

Operations Planning and Scheduling

Resource Planning

Supply Chain Design

Supply Chain Logistic Networks

Supply Chain Integration

Supply Chain Sustainability

Supplement A Decision Making

Supplement J Operations Scheduling

Supplement K Layout

Supplement B Waiting Lines

Supplement C Special Inventory Models

Supplement D Linear Programming

Supplement E Simulation

Supplement F Financial Analysis

Supplement G Acceptance Sampling Plans

Supplement H Measuring Output Rates

Supplement I Learning Curve Analysis

Filters