Exam 8: Forecasting

Table 8.7 A sales manager wants to forecast monthly sales of the machines the company makes using the following monthly sales data. -Use the information in Table 8.7. If the forecast for period 7 is $4,300, what is the forecast for period 9 using exponential smoothing with an alpha equal to 0.30?

In an exponential smoothing model a ________ value for alpha results in greater emphasis being placed on more recent periods.

What is the difference between a reservation and an appointment?

Table 8.3 A textbook publisher for books used in business schools believes that the number of books sold is related to the number of campus visits to decision makers made by their sales force. A sampling of the number of sales calls made and the number of books sold is shown in the following table. -Use the information provided in Table 8.3. For every sale call made, the number of books sold increases by:

It would be most appropriate to combine a judgment approach to forecasting with a quantitative approach by:

Polly Prognosticator was the greatest quantitative forecaster in recorded history. A skillful user of all techniques in your chapter on forecasting, she knew better than to try and develop a forecast for data that exhibited a:

Your team has been asked to develop a forecast for the need for storage in the company's communication devices ten years from now. What method would develop the best forecast? Why? How would you execute this method?

A forecasting system that brings the manufacturer and its customers together to provide input for forecasting is a(n):

The ________ is a process of gaining consensus from a group of experts while maintaining their anonymity.

The repeated observations of demand for a product or service in their order of occurrence form a pattern known as a time series.

What is the difference between mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean squared error (MSE)?

The manufacturer developed and tested a questionnaire, designed to assist them in gauging the level of acceptance for their new product, and identified a representative sample as part of their:

Explain how the value of alpha affects forecasts produced by exponential smoothing.

Which of the following statements about bid data is not True?

The dispersion of forecast errors is measured by both MAD and MSE, which behave differently in the way they emphasize errors. ________ gives larger weight to errors and ________ gives smaller weight to errors.

A naive forecast is a time-series method whereby the forecast for the next period equals the demand for the current period.

What are reasonable criteria for selecting one time-series method over another?

Calculate three forecasts using the following data. First, for periods 4 through 10, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F₃) of 45.0 and an alpha of 0.4. Second, calculate the three-period moving-average forecast for periods 4 through 10. Third, calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 10, using weights of .70, .20, and .10, with 0.70 applied to the most recent data. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and the cumulative sum of forecast error (CFE) for each forecasting procedure. Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why?

________ are assumed to "cause" the results that a forecaster wishes to predict.

Pho Bulous, a Vietnamese restaurant in the bustling metropolis of Edmond, has had great success using forecasting techniques to predict demand for their main menu items ever since they opened their doors. Their forecast for last month was grossly inaccurate and so far this month, their forecast appears to be just as bad as last month's. It's already time to prepare the forecast for next month, what should they do about their model?