Exam 8: Forecasting

Table 8.2 The Agricultural Extension Agent's Office has tracked fertilizer application and crop yields for a variety of chickpea and has recorded the data shown in the following table. Their staff statistician developed the regression model and computed the performance statistics displayed below the data. -Use the information provided in Table 8.2. The value of Fertilizer required to generate 100 bushels yield must be:

________ is a systematic approach to determine consumer interest in a product or service by creating and testing hypotheses through data-gathering surveys.

In the winter, Handyman Negri repaired snowblowers and in the summer he earned extra money by repairing lawnmowers, a classic example of:

Table 8.7 A sales manager wants to forecast monthly sales of the machines the company makes using the following monthly sales data. -Use the information in Table 8.7. Use the 3-month weighted moving-average method to calculate the forecast for month 9. The weights are 0.60, 0.30, and 0.10, where 0.60 refers to the most recent demand.

Which one of the following is an example of causal forecasting technique?

What are the steps of the forecasting process as described in the text?

Nathan managed to level the customer requests for his valuable services by offering reservations, deploying some promotional pricing, and engaging in yield management, all forms of ________.

________ is a collection of data from traditional and digital sources and is characterized by volume, variety, and velocity.

Forecasts almost always contain errors.

Time-series analysis is a statistical approach that relies heavily on historical demand data to project the future size of demand.

Combination forecasting is a method of forecasting that selects the best from a group of forecasts generated by simple techniques.

Table 8.4 The Furniture Super Mart is a furniture retailer in Evansville, Indiana. The Marketing Manager wants to prepare a media budget based on the next quarter's business plan. The manager wants to decide the mix of radio advertising and newspaper advertising needed to generate varying levels of Weekly Gross Revenue. The manager has collected data for the past five weeks, and has recorded the following average Weekly Gross Revenues and expenditures for Weekly Radio (X1) and Newspaper (X2) advertising: The Manager uses the multiple regression model in OM Explorer and obtains the following results: -Use the information provided in Table 8.4. Adding $1,000 of Weekly Newspaper Advertising (X2) can be expected to increase Weekly Gross Revenues by what amount? (Assume all other variables are held constant.)

A(n) ________ is a portion of data from more recent time periods that is used to test different models developed from earlier time period data.

Barney took what he liked to call "the shotgun approach" to forecasting. Every period he tried a number of different forecasting approaches and at the end of the period he reviewed all of the forecasts to see which was the most accurate. The winner would be used for next period's forecast (but he still made forecasts all possible ways so he could use the system again for the following period). The more formal name for this technique is:

Professor Willis noted that the popularity of his office hours mysteriously rose in the middle and the end of each semester, falling off to virtually no visitors throughout the rest of the year. The demand pattern at work is:

Describe the combination forecast techniques and discuss how they have been shown to perform in recent studies.

A(n) ________ measures the direction and strength between the independent variable and the dependent variable.

________ is a causal method of forecasting in which one variable is related to one or more variables by a linear equation.

Table 8.7 A sales manager wants to forecast monthly sales of the machines the company makes using the following monthly sales data. -Use the information in Table 8.7. What is the forecast for period 9 using a naive forecast?

Table 8.9 Consider the following results from the last ten periods of student enrollment forecast by the Operations Management department chairman. -Use Table 8.9 to determine the cumulative sum of forecast errors as of period 6 for the department chairman's forecast.