Exam 20: Decision Making

Blossom's Flowers purchases roses for sale for Valentine's Day.The roses are purchased for $10 a dozen and are sold for $20 a dozen.Any roses not sold on Valentine's Day can be sold for $5 per dozen.The owner will purchase 1 of 3 amounts of roses for Valentine's Day: 100,200,or 400 dozen roses.If the probability of selling 100 dozen roses is 0.2 and 200 dozen roses is 0.5,then the probability of selling 400 dozen roses is

SCENARIO 20-6 A student wanted to find out the optimal strategy to study for a Business Statistics exam with scores out of 100 possible points.He constructed the following payoff table based on the mean amount of time he needed to study every week for the course and the degree of difficulty of the exam.From the information that he gathered from students who had taken the course,he concluded that there was a 40% probability that the exam would be easy. -Referring to Scenario 20-6,the optimal strategy using the coefficient of variation criterion is to study 8 hours per week on average for the exam.

Blossom's Flowers purchases roses for sale for Valentine's Day.The roses are purchased for $10 a dozen and are sold for $20 a dozen.Any roses not sold on Valentine's Day can be sold for $5 per dozen.The owner will purchase 1 of 3 amounts of roses for Valentine's Day: 100,200,or 400 dozen roses.The number of states of nature for the payoff table is

SCENARIO 20-5 The following payoff table shows profits associated with a set of 2 alternatives under 3 possible events. Suppose that the probability of Event 1 is 0.2,Event 2 is 0.5,and Event 3 is 0.3. -Referring to Scenario 20-5,what is the opportunity loss for Action B with Event 3?

Opportunity loss is the difference between the lowest profit for an event and the actual profit obtained for an action taken.

SCENARIO 20-6 A student wanted to find out the optimal strategy to study for a Business Statistics exam with scores out of 100 possible points.He constructed the following payoff table based on the mean amount of time he needed to study every week for the course and the degree of difficulty of the exam.From the information that he gathered from students who had taken the course,he concluded that there was a 40% probability that the exam would be easy. -Referring to Scenario 20-6,what is the maximum amount that the student is willing to pay to obtain perfect information?

A company that manufactures designer jeans is contemplating whether to increase its advertising budget by $1 million for next year.If the expanded advertising campaign is successful,the company expects sales to increase by $1.6 million next year.If the advertising campaign fails,the company expects sales to increase by only $400,000 next year.If the advertising budget is not increased,the company expects sales to increase by $200,000.Identify the payoffs in this decision-making problem.

SCENARIO 20-5 The following payoff table shows profits associated with a set of 2 alternatives under 3 possible events. Suppose that the probability of Event 1 is 0.2,Event 2 is 0.5,and Event 3 is 0.3. -Referring to Scenario 20-5,what is the return to risk ratio for Action B?

SCENARIO 20-6 A student wanted to find out the optimal strategy to study for a Business Statistics exam with scores out of 100 possible points.He constructed the following payoff table based on the mean amount of time he needed to study every week for the course and the degree of difficulty of the exam.From the information that he gathered from students who had taken the course,he concluded that there was a 40% probability that the exam would be easy. -Referring to Scenario 20-6,what is the opportunity loss of spending 16 hours per week on average studying for the exam when the exam turns out to be easy?

SCENARIO 20-6 A student wanted to find out the optimal strategy to study for a Business Statistics exam with scores out of 100 possible points.He constructed the following payoff table based on the mean amount of time he needed to study every week for the course and the degree of difficulty of the exam.From the information that he gathered from students who had taken the course,he concluded that there was a 40% probability that the exam would be easy. -Referring to Scenario 20-6,what is the coefficient of variation of spending 8 hours per week on average studying for the exam?

SCENARIO 20-5 The following payoff table shows profits associated with a set of 2 alternatives under 3 possible events. Suppose that the probability of Event 1 is 0.2,Event 2 is 0.5,and Event 3 is 0.3. -Referring to Scenario 20-5,what is the expected profit under certainty (EPUC )for this problem?

SCENARIO 20-5 The following payoff table shows profits associated with a set of 2 alternatives under 3 possible events. Suppose that the probability of Event 1 is 0.2,Event 2 is 0.5,and Event 3 is 0.3. -Referring to Scenario 20-5,what is the EOL for Action B?

SCENARIO 20-5 The following payoff table shows profits associated with a set of 2 alternatives under 3 possible events. Suppose that the probability of Event 1 is 0.2,Event 2 is 0.5,and Event 3 is 0.3. -Referring to Scenario 20-5,what is the opportunity loss for Action A with Event 1?

In a local cellular phone area,company A accounts for 60% of the cellular phone market,while company B accounts for the remaining 40% of the market.Of the cellular calls made with company A,1% of the calls will have some sort of interference,while 2% of the cellular calls with company B will have interference.If a cellular call is selected at random,the probability that it will not have interference is

SCENARIO 20-4 A stock portfolio has the following returns under the market conditions listed below. -Referring to Scenario 20-4,what is the return to risk ratio?

Blossom's Flowers purchases roses for sale for Valentine's Day.The roses are purchased for $10 a dozen and are sold for $20 a dozen.Any roses not sold on Valentine's Day can be sold for $5 per dozen.The owner will purchase 1 of 3 amounts of roses for Valentine's Day: 100,200,or 400 dozen roses.Given 0.2,0.4,and 0.4 are the probabilities for the sale of 100,200,or 400 dozen roses,respectively,then the EMV for buying 200 dozen roses is

SCENARIO 20-1 The following payoff table shows profits associated with a set of 3 alternatives under 2 possible states of nature. -Referring to Scenario 20-1,if the probability of S1 is 0.4,then the probability of S2 is

SCENARIO 20-6 A student wanted to find out the optimal strategy to study for a Business Statistics exam with scores out of 100 possible points.He constructed the following payoff table based on the mean amount of time he needed to study every week for the course and the degree of difficulty of the exam.From the information that he gathered from students who had taken the course,he concluded that there was a 40% probability that the exam would be easy. -Referring to Scenario 20-6,how many possible events are there?

At Eastern University,60% of the students are from suburban areas,30% are from rural areas,and 10% are from urban areas.Of the students from the suburban areas,60% are nonbusiness majors.Of the students from the rural areas,70% are nonbusiness majors.Of the students from the urban areas,90% are nonbusiness majors.If a randomly selected student is not a business major,the probability that the student is from the urban area is

SCENARIO 20-1 The following payoff table shows profits associated with a set of 3 alternatives under 2 possible states of nature. -Referring to Scenario 20-1,if the probability of S1 is 0.5,then the EVPI for the payoff table is