Exam 20: Decision Making

SCENARIO 20-6 A student wanted to find out the optimal strategy to study for a Business Statistics exam with scores out of 100 possible points.He constructed the following payoff table based on the mean amount of time he needed to study every week for the course and the degree of difficulty of the exam.From the information that he gathered from students who had taken the course,he concluded that there was a 40% probability that the exam would be easy. -Referring to Scenario 20-6,what is the expected profit under certainty?

SCENARIO 20-1 The following payoff table shows profits associated with a set of 3 alternatives under 2 possible states of nature. -Referring to Scenario 20-1,if the probability of S1 is 0.5,what is the optimal alternative using EMV?

SCENARIO 20-5 The following payoff table shows profits associated with a set of 2 alternatives under 3 possible events. Suppose that the probability of Event 1 is 0.2,Event 2 is 0.5,and Event 3 is 0.3. -Referring to Scenario 20-5,what is the opportunity loss for Action B with Event 1?

SCENARIO 20-2 The following payoff matrix is given in dollars. Suppose the probability of Event 1 is 0.5 and Event 2 is 0.5. -Referring to Scenario 20-2,the EOL for Action A is

A company that manufactures designer jeans is contemplating whether to increase its advertising budget by $1 million for next year.If the expanded advertising campaign is successful,the company expects sales to increase by $1.6 million next year.If the advertising campaign fails,the company expects sales to increase by only $400,000 next year.If the advertising budget is not increased,the company expects sales to increase by $200,000.Identify the events in this decision-making problem.

Look at the utility function graphed below and select the type of decision maker that corresponds to the graph.

SCENARIO 20-6 A student wanted to find out the optimal strategy to study for a Business Statistics exam with scores out of 100 possible points.He constructed the following payoff table based on the mean amount of time he needed to study every week for the course and the degree of difficulty of the exam.From the information that he gathered from students who had taken the course,he concluded that there was a 40% probability that the exam would be easy. -Referring to Scenario 20-6,the optimal strategy using the maximax criterion is to study 8 hours per week on average for the exam.

SCENARIO 20-6 A student wanted to find out the optimal strategy to study for a Business Statistics exam with scores out of 100 possible points.He constructed the following payoff table based on the mean amount of time he needed to study every week for the course and the degree of difficulty of the exam.From the information that he gathered from students who had taken the course,he concluded that there was a 40% probability that the exam would be easy. -Referring to Scenario 20-6,what is the expected opportunity loss of spending 8 hours per week on average studying for the exam?

SCENARIO 20-6 A student wanted to find out the optimal strategy to study for a Business Statistics exam with scores out of 100 possible points.He constructed the following payoff table based on the mean amount of time he needed to study every week for the course and the degree of difficulty of the exam.From the information that he gathered from students who had taken the course,he concluded that there was a 40% probability that the exam would be easy. -Referring to Scenario 20-6,the optimal strategy using the maximin criterion is to study 8 hours per week on average for the exam.

The risk- _____ curve shows a rapid increase in utility for initial amounts of money followed by a gradual leveling off for increasing dollar amounts.

SCENARIO 20-1 The following payoff table shows profits associated with a set of 3 alternatives under 2 possible states of nature. -Referring to Scenario 20-1,if the probability of S1 is 0.5,then the coefficient of variation for A1 is

Which of the following is NOT a decision making criterion?

A company that manufactures designer jeans is contemplating whether to increase its advertising budget by $1 million for next year.If the expanded advertising campaign is successful,the company expects sales to increase by $1.6 million next year.If the advertising campaign fails,the company expects sales to increase by only $400,000 next year.If the advertising budget is not increased,the company expects sales to increase by $200,000.Identify the outcomes in this decision-making problem.

Look at the utility function graphed below and select the type of decision maker that corresponds to the graph.

SCENARIO 20-2 The following payoff matrix is given in dollars. Suppose the probability of Event 1 is 0.5 and Event 2 is 0.5. -Referring to Scenario 20-2,the return to risk ratio for Action B is

Removal of uncertainty from a decision-making problem leads to a case referred to as perfect information.

In a local cellular phone area,company A accounts for 60% of the cellular phone market,while company B accounts for the remaining 40% of the market.Of the cellular calls made with company A,1% of the calls will have some sort of interference,while 2% of the cellular calls with company B will have interference.If a cellular call is selected at random,the probability that it will have interference is

SCENARIO 20-3 The following information is from 2 investment opportunities. -Referring to Scenario 20-3,what is the return to risk ratio for Investment B?

SCENARIO 20-6 A student wanted to find out the optimal strategy to study for a Business Statistics exam with scores out of 100 possible points.He constructed the following payoff table based on the mean amount of time he needed to study every week for the course and the degree of difficulty of the exam.From the information that he gathered from students who had taken the course,he concluded that there was a 40% probability that the exam would be easy. -Referring to Scenario 20-6,what is the expected monetary value of spending 8 hours per week on average studying for the exam?

A medical doctor is involved in a $1 million malpractice suit.He can either settle out of court for $250,000 or go to court.If he goes to court and loses,he must pay $825,000 plus $175,000 in court costs.If he wins in court the plaintiffs pay the court costs.Identify the states of nature of this decision-making problem.