Exam 6: Probability

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If P(A) = 0.84, P(B) = 0.76, and P(A or B) = 0.90, then P(A and B) is:

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The first set of branches of a probability tree represent ____________________ probabilities.

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The union of events A and B is the event that occurs when either A or B or both occur.It is denoted as 'A or B'.

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Messenger Service Three messenger services deliver to a small town in Oregon.Service A has 60% of all the scheduled deliveries, service B has 30%, and service C has the remaining 10%.Their on-time rates are 80%, 60%, and 40% respectively.Define event O as a service delivers a package on time. -{Messenger Service Narrative} Calculate P(B and O).

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Business Majors Suppose 30% of business majors major in accounting.You take a random sample of 3 business majors. -{Business Majors Narrative} What is the chance that exactly one majors in accounting?

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If A and B are any two events with P(A) = .8 and P(B|A) = .4, then P(A and B) is:

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If events A and B cannot occur at the same time, they are called mutually exclusive.

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Cysts After researching cysts of a particular type, a doctor learns that out of 10,000 such cysts examined, 1,500 are malignant and 8,500 are benign.A diagnostic test is available which is accurate 80% of the time (whether the cyst is malignant or not).The doctor has discovered the same type of cyst in a patient. -{Cysts Narrative} What is the probability that the patient has a benign tumor if he or she tests positive?

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The ____________________ of events A and B is the event that occurs when both A and B occur.

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In applying Bayes' Law, as the prior probabilities increase, the posterior probabilities decrease.

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If events A and B have nonzero probabilities, then they can be both independent and mutually exclusive.

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Bayes' Law involves three different types of probabilities: 1) prior probabilities; 2) likelihood probabilities; and 3) ____________________ probabilities.

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If two events are mutually exclusive their joint probability is ____________________.

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Certification Test A standard certification test was given at three locations.1,000 candidates took the test at location A, 600 candidates at location B, and 400 candidates at location C.The percentages of candidates from locations A, B, and C who passed the test were 70%, 68%, and 77%, respectively.One candidate is selected at random from among those who took the test. -{Certification Test Narrative} If the selected candidate passed the test, what is the probability that the candidate took the test at location B?

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The probability of event A given event B is denoted by

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Drunk Drivers Six hundred accidents that occurred on a Saturday night were analyzed.Two items noted were the number of vehicles involved and whether alcohol played a role in the accident.The numbers are shown below: Drunk Drivers Six hundred accidents that occurred on a Saturday night were analyzed.Two items noted were the number of vehicles involved and whether alcohol played a role in the accident.The numbers are shown below:    -{Drunk Drivers Narrative} What proportion of accidents involved alcohol and single vehicle? -{Drunk Drivers Narrative} What proportion of accidents involved alcohol and single vehicle?

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We can use the joint and marginal probabilities to compute conditional probabilities, for which a formula is available.

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If P(B) = .7 and P(B|A) = .4, then P(A and B) must be .28.

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Equity Loan Rates A survey of banks estimated the following probabilities for the interest rate being charged on a equity loan based on a 30-year loan, based on past records. Equity Loan Rates A survey of banks estimated the following probabilities for the interest rate being charged on a equity loan based on a 30-year loan, based on past records.    -{Equity Loan Rates Narrative} What approach was used in estimating the probabilities for the interest rates? -{Equity Loan Rates Narrative} What approach was used in estimating the probabilities for the interest rates?

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Is it possible to have two events for which P(A) = 0.40, P(B) = 0.50, and P(A or B) = 0.30? Explain.

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