Exam 6: Probability

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Although there is a formula defining Bayes' law, you can also use a probability tree to conduct calculations.

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Business Majors Suppose 30% of business majors major in accounting.You take a random sample of 3 business majors. -{Business Majors Narrative} What is the chance that none of them major in accounting?

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Cysts After researching cysts of a particular type, a doctor learns that out of 10,000 such cysts examined, 1,500 are malignant and 8,500 are benign.A diagnostic test is available which is accurate 80% of the time (whether the cyst is malignant or not).The doctor has discovered the same type of cyst in a patient. -{Cysts Narrative} What is the probability that the patient will test positive?

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Which of the following statements is correct if the events A and B have nonzero probabilities?

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If A and B are mutually exclusive events with P(A) = 0.30 and P(B) = 0.40, then P(A or B) is:

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Suppose P(A) = 0.50, P(B) = 0.40, and P(B|A) = 0.30. a. Find P(A and B). b. Find P(A or B). c. Find P(A|B).

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If P(A|B) = P(A) then events A and B are ____________________.

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Financial Consultants A Financial Consultant has classified his clients according to their gender and the composition of their investment portfolio (primarily bonds, primarily stocks, or a balanced mix of bonds and stocks).The proportions of clients falling into the various categories are shown in the following table: Financial Consultants A Financial Consultant has classified his clients according to their gender and the composition of their investment portfolio (primarily bonds, primarily stocks, or a balanced mix of bonds and stocks).The proportions of clients falling into the various categories are shown in the following table:    One client is selected at random, and two events A and B are defined as follows: A: The client selected is male. B: The client selected has a balanced portfolio. -{Financial Consultants Narrative} Find the following probabilities: a. P(A|B) b. P(B|A) One client is selected at random, and two events A and B are defined as follows: A: The client selected is male. B: The client selected has a balanced portfolio. -{Financial Consultants Narrative} Find the following probabilities: a. P(A|B) b. P(B|A)

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Bayes' Law is a formula for revising an initial subjective (prior) probability value on the basis of new results, thus obtaining a new (posterior) probability value.

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Hobby Shop Sales Sales records of a hobby shop showed the following number of radio controlled trucks sold weekly for each of the last 50 weeks. Hobby Shop Sales Sales records of a hobby shop showed the following number of radio controlled trucks sold weekly for each of the last 50 weeks.    -{Hobby Shop Sales Narrative} What approach would you use in determining the probabilities for next week's sales? Assign probabilities to the outcomes. -{Hobby Shop Sales Narrative} What approach would you use in determining the probabilities for next week's sales? Assign probabilities to the outcomes.

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If A and B are mutually exclusive, their joint probability is ____________________.

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Bayes' Law allows us to compute conditional probabilities from other forms of probability.

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A pharmaceutical firm has discovered a new diagnostic test for a certain disease that has infected 1% of the population.The firm has announced that 95% of those infected will show a positive test result, while 98% of those not infected will show a negative test result. a. What proportion of people don't have the disease? b. What proportion who have the disease test negative? c. What proportion of those who don't have the disease test positive? d. What proportion of test results are incorrect? e. What proportion of test results are correct?

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If A and B are independent, then P(A|B) = ____________________.

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If P(A) = 0.25 and P(B) = 0.65, then P(A and B) is:

(Multiple Choice)
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A and B are disjoint events, with P(A) = 0.20 and P(B) = 0.30.Then P(A and B) is:

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If P(A) = 0.4 and P(B) = 0.6, then A and B must be mutually exclusive.

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If joint, marginal, and conditional probabilities are available, only joint probabilities can be used to determine whether two events are dependent or independent.

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Which of the following statements is false regarding a scenario using Bayes' Law?

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When you multiply a first level branch with a second level branch on a probability tree you get a(n) ____________________ probability.

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