Question 1

Use simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.75 to forecast the yurt sales for February through May.Assume that the forecast for January was for 25 yurts.

Accepted Answer

Forecast for Feb.thr

Question 2

In general terms, describe a centered moving average.

Accepted Answer

An average of the values cente

Question 3

Plossl and Wight suggest a reasonable limit for the tracking signal for high-volume stock items is considered to be

Accepted Answer

A) ±3. 
B) ±4. 
C) ±8. 
D) ±9. 
A) ±3. 
B) ±4. 
C) ±8. 
D) ±9.

Question 4

Adaptive smoothing is analogous to exponential smoothing where the coefficients α and β are periodically updated to improve the forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

Enrollment in a particular class for the last four semesters has been 120, 126, 110, and 130 (listed from oldest to most recent).Develop a forecast of enrollment next semester using exponential smoothing with an alpha = 0.2.Assume that an initial forecast for the first semester was 120 (so the forecast and the actual were the same).

Accepted Answer

A) 118.96 
B) 121.17 
C) 130 
D) 120 
A) 118.96 
B) 121.17 
C) 130 
D) 120

Question 6

A season represents a longer period of time than a cycle.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

Use the sales data given below to determine:
   (a)The least squares trend line.
(b)The predicted value for 2002 sales.
(c)The MAD.
(d)The unadjusted forecasting MSE.

Accepted Answer

(a) @#IMG-DLM& = 119.14 + 10.4

Question 8

Bias is the average error of a forecast model.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Multiple regression can be used to develop a multiplicative decomposition model.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

Daily demand for newspapers for the last 10 days has been as follows: 12, 13, 16, 15, 12, 18, 14, 12, 13, 15 (listed from oldest to most recent).Forecast sales for the next day using a two-day weighted moving average where the weights are 3 and 1.

Accepted Answer

A) 14.5 
B) 13.5 
C) 14 
D) 12.25 
A) 14.5 
B) 13.5 
C) 14 
D) 12.25

Question 11

The sales force composite method of forecasting uses the opinions of customers or potential customers regarding their future purchasing plans.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

Which of the following methods gives an indication of the percentage of forecast error?

Accepted Answer

A) MAD 
B) MSE 
C) MAPE 
D) decomposition 
A) MAD 
B) MSE 
C) MAPE 
D) decomposition

Question 13

The following table represents the number of applicants at a popular private college in the last four years.
   Assuming α = 0.2, β = 0.3, an initial forecast of 10,000 for 2007, and an initial trend adjustment of 0 for 2007, use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to come up with a forecast for 2011 on the number of applicants.

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& 2011 Fore

Question 14

Consider the actual and forecast values contained in the table.   What is the bias?

Accepted Answer

A) -0.5 
B) 0 
C) 1.33 
D) 1.75 
A) -0.5 
B) 0 
C) 1.33 
D) 1.75

Question 15

Assume that you have tried three different forecasting models.For the first, the MAD = 2.5, for the second, the MSE = 10.5, and for the third, the MAPE = 2.7.We can then say

Accepted Answer

A) the third method is the best. 
B) the second method is the best. 
C) method two is the least preferred. 
D) We cannot make a determination as to which method is best. 
A) the third method is the best. 
B) the second method is the best. 
C) method two is the least preferred. 
D) We cannot make a determination as to which method is best.

Question 16

Consider the actual and forecast values contained in the table.   What is the bias of the forecast?

Accepted Answer

A) 0.01 
B) 0.06 
C) 0.09 
D) 0.13 
A) 0.01 
B) 0.06 
C) 0.09 
D) 0.13

Question 17

For the data below:
   (a)Determine the least squares regression line.
(b)Determine the predicted value for 2004.
(c)Determine the MAD.
(d)Determine the unadjusted forecasting MSE.

Accepted Answer

(a) @#IMG-DLM& = 85.15 - 1.8X

Question 18

Mean absolute deviation (MAD)is simply the sum of forecast errors.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

A method to measure how well predictions fit actual data is

Accepted Answer

A) decomposition 
B) smoothing 
C) tracking signal 
D) regression 
A) decomposition 
B) smoothing 
C) tracking signal 
D) regression

Question 20

Consider the actual and forecast values contained in the table.   At which observation is the tracking signal at its maximum value?

Accepted Answer

A) Observation #5 
B) Observation #7 
C) Observation #4 
D) Observation #6 
A) Observation #5 
B) Observation #7 
C) Observation #4 
D) Observation #6

Exam 5: Forecasting

Use simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.75 to forecast the yurt sales for February through May.Assume that the forecast for January was for 25 yurts.

In general terms, describe a centered moving average.

Plossl and Wight suggest a reasonable limit for the tracking signal for high-volume stock items is considered to be

Adaptive smoothing is analogous to exponential smoothing where the coefficients α and β are periodically updated to improve the forecast.

A season represents a longer period of time than a cycle.

Use the sales data given below to determine: (a)The least squares trend line. (b)The predicted value for 2002 sales. (c)The MAD. (d)The unadjusted forecasting MSE.

Bias is the average error of a forecast model.

Multiple regression can be used to develop a multiplicative decomposition model.

Daily demand for newspapers for the last 10 days has been as follows: 12, 13, 16, 15, 12, 18, 14, 12, 13, 15 (listed from oldest to most recent).Forecast sales for the next day using a two-day weighted moving average where the weights are 3 and 1.

The sales force composite method of forecasting uses the opinions of customers or potential customers regarding their future purchasing plans.

Which of the following methods gives an indication of the percentage of forecast error?

Consider the actual and forecast values contained in the table. What is the bias?

Assume that you have tried three different forecasting models.For the first, the MAD = 2.5, for the second, the MSE = 10.5, and for the third, the MAPE = 2.7.We can then say

Consider the actual and forecast values contained in the table. What is the bias of the forecast?

For the data below: (a)Determine the least squares regression line. (b)Determine the predicted value for 2004. (c)Determine the MAD. (d)Determine the unadjusted forecasting MSE.

Mean absolute deviation (MAD)is simply the sum of forecast errors.

A method to measure how well predictions fit actual data is

Consider the actual and forecast values contained in the table. At which observation is the tracking signal at its maximum value?

Introduction to Quantitative Analysis

Probability Concepts and Applications

Decision Analysis

Regression Models

Inventory Control Models

Linear Programming Models: Graphical and Computer Methods

Linear Programming Applications

Transportation, Assignment, and Network Models

Integer Programming, Goal Programming, and Nonlinear Programming

Project Management

Waiting Lines and Queuing Theory Models

Simulation Modeling

Markov Analysis

Statistical Quality Control

Analytic Hierarchy Process

Dynamic Programming

Decision Theory and the Normal Distribution

Game Theory

Mathematical Tools: Determinants and Matrices

Calculus-Based Optimization

Linear Programming: The Simplex Method

Transportation, Assignment, and Network Algorithms

Filters