Question 1

Explain, briefly, why the larger the number of periods included in a moving average forecast, the less well the forecast identifies rapid changes in the variable of interest.

Accepted Answer

The larger the number of perio

Question 2

Demand for Y is shown in the table.   Develop a forecast using a trend line.What is the forecast for period 10?

Accepted Answer

A) 151.7 
B) 153.9 
C) 155.1 
D) 157.3 
A) 151.7 
B) 153.9 
C) 155.1 
D) 157.3

Question 3

Four components of time series are trend, moving average, exponential smoothing, and seasonality.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

Explain, briefly, why most forecasting error measures use either the absolute or the square of the error.

Accepted Answer

A deviation is equally importa

Question 5

Time series models enable the forecaster to include specific representations of various qualitative and quantitative factors.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

Given the following gasoline data:
   (a)Compute the seasonal index for each quarter.
(b)Suppose we expect year 3 to have annual demand of 800.What is the forecast value for each quarter in year 3?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Given the following gasoline data:
  ...

Question 7

Which of the following is not considered to be one of the components of a time series?

Accepted Answer

A) trend 
B) seasonality 
C) variance 
D) cycles 
A) trend 
B) seasonality 
C) variance 
D) cycles

Question 8

When the smoothing constant α = 0, the exponential smoothing model is equivalent to the naïve forecasting model.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Briefly describe the consumer market survey forecasting method.

Accepted Answer

It is a forecasting method tha

Question 10

Wick's Ski Shop is looking to forecast ski sales on a quarterly basis based on the historical data listed in the table below:
   Use the steps to develop a forecast using the decomposition method to answer the following questions:
(a)Using the CMAs, calculate the seasonal indices for Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4.
(b)Find the equation for the trend line using deseasonalized data.
(c)Find the year 5 quarterly forecasts.

Accepted Answer

(a)Q1 - 2.1174, Q2 - 0.6129, Q

Question 11

List four measures of historical forecasting errors.

Accepted Answer

MAD, MSE,

Question 12

The following table represents the actual vs.forecasted number of new customers acquired by a major credit card company:
   (a)What is the tracking signal?
(b)Based on the answer in part (a), comment on the accuracy of this forecast.

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& (a)RSFE/MAD = -24/32 = -0.75

Question 13

Daily humidity in the city of Houston for the last week have been: 93, 94, 93, 95, 92, 86, 98 (yesterday).Forecast the humidity today using a two-day moving average

Accepted Answer

A) 92 
B) 88 
C) 94 
D) 89 
A) 92 
B) 88 
C) 94 
D) 89

Question 14

A tracking signal was calculated for a particular set of demand forecasts.This tracking signal was positive.This would indicate that

Accepted Answer

A) demand is greater than the forecast. 
B) demand is less than the forecast. 
C) demand is equal to the forecast. 
D) the MAD is negative. 
A) demand is greater than the forecast. 
B) demand is less than the forecast. 
C) demand is equal to the forecast. 
D) the MAD is negative.

Question 15

Scatter diagrams can be useful in spotting trends or cycles in data over time.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

A seasonal index of ________ indicates that the season is average.

Accepted Answer

A) 10 
B) 0.5 
C) 0 
D) 1 
A) 10 
B) 0.5 
C) 0 
D) 1

Question 17

A judgmental forecasting technique that uses decision makers, staff personnel, and respondent to determine a forecast is called

Accepted Answer

A) exponential smoothing. 
B) the Delphi method. 
C) jury of executive opinion. 
D) sales force composite. 
A) exponential smoothing. 
B) the Delphi method. 
C) jury of executive opinion. 
D) sales force composite.

Question 18

Given the following data, if MAD = 1.25, determine what the actual demand must have been in period 2 (A2).

Accepted Answer

Question 19

The computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment is referred to as

Accepted Answer

A) exponential smoothing. 
B) adaptive smoothing. 
C) trend projections. 
D) trend smoothing. 
A) exponential smoothing. 
B) adaptive smoothing. 
C) trend projections. 
D) trend smoothing.

Question 20

When the smoothing constant α = 1, the exponential smoothing model is equivalent to the naïve forecasting model.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Exam 5: Forecasting

Explain, briefly, why the larger the number of periods included in a moving average forecast, the less well the forecast identifies rapid changes in the variable of interest.

Demand for Y is shown in the table. Develop a forecast using a trend line.What is the forecast for period 10?

Four components of time series are trend, moving average, exponential smoothing, and seasonality.

Explain, briefly, why most forecasting error measures use either the absolute or the square of the error.

Time series models enable the forecaster to include specific representations of various qualitative and quantitative factors.

Given the following gasoline data: (a)Compute the seasonal index for each quarter. (b)Suppose we expect year 3 to have annual demand of 800.What is the forecast value for each quarter in year 3?

Which of the following is not considered to be one of the components of a time series?

When the smoothing constant α = 0, the exponential smoothing model is equivalent to the naïve forecasting model.

Briefly describe the consumer market survey forecasting method.

List four measures of historical forecasting errors.

The following table represents the actual vs.forecasted number of new customers acquired by a major credit card company: (a)What is the tracking signal? (b)Based on the answer in part (a), comment on the accuracy of this forecast.

Daily humidity in the city of Houston for the last week have been: 93, 94, 93, 95, 92, 86, 98 (yesterday).Forecast the humidity today using a two-day moving average

A tracking signal was calculated for a particular set of demand forecasts.This tracking signal was positive.This would indicate that

Scatter diagrams can be useful in spotting trends or cycles in data over time.

A seasonal index of ________ indicates that the season is average.

A judgmental forecasting technique that uses decision makers, staff personnel, and respondent to determine a forecast is called

Given the following data, if MAD = 1.25, determine what the actual demand must have been in period 2 (A2).

The computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment is referred to as

When the smoothing constant α = 1, the exponential smoothing model is equivalent to the naïve forecasting model.

Introduction to Quantitative Analysis

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Given the following data, if MAD = 1.25, determine what the actual demand must have been in period 2 (A₂).