Question 1

The three categories of forecasting models are time series, quantitative, and qualitative.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

Consider the actual and forecast values contained in the table.   What is the tracking signal for the 5th point in the series (actual = 22 & forecast = 21.7)?

Accepted Answer

A) -0.833 
B) -1.333 
C) 0.833 
D) 1.333 
A) -0.833 
B) -1.333 
C) 0.833 
D) 1.333

Question 3

Briefly describe the jury of executive opinion forecasting method.

Accepted Answer

The jury of executive opinion

Question 4

Which of the following is not considered one of the steps to developing the decomposition method?

Accepted Answer

A) compute seasonal indices using CMAs 
B) find the equation of the trend line using the deseasonalized data 
C) forecast for future periods using the trend line 
D) add the seasonal index to the trend forecast 
A) compute seasonal indices using CMAs 
B) find the equation of the trend line using the deseasonalized data 
C) forecast for future periods using the trend line 
D) add the seasonal index to the trend forecast

Question 5

Consider the actual and forecast values contained in the table.   At which observation is the tracking signal at its maximum value?

Accepted Answer

A) Observation #5 
B) Observation #7 
C) Observation #4 
D) Observation #6 
A) Observation #5 
B) Observation #7 
C) Observation #4 
D) Observation #6

Question 6

In the exponential smoothing with trend adjustment forecasting method, β is the

Accepted Answer

A) new forecast. 
B) Y-axis intercept. 
C) independent variable. 
D) trend smoothing constant. 
A) new forecast. 
B) Y-axis intercept. 
C) independent variable. 
D) trend smoothing constant.

Question 7

Which of the following is considered a causal method of forecasting?

Accepted Answer

A) exponential smoothing 
B) moving average 
C) linear regression 
D) Delphi method 
A) exponential smoothing 
B) moving average 
C) linear regression 
D) Delphi method

Question 8

What is the basic additive decomposition model (in regression terms)?

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& = a + b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X3 + b4

Question 9

Sales for boxes of Girl Scout cookies over a 4-month period were forecasted as follows: 100, 120, 115, and 123.The actual results over the 4-month period were as follows: 110, 114, 119, 115.What was the MSE of the 4-month forecast?

Accepted Answer

A) 0 
B) 5 
C) 7 
D) 54 
A) 0 
B) 5 
C) 7 
D) 54

Question 10

Demand for Y is shown in the table.   What is the slope of the appropriate trend equation?

Accepted Answer

A) 14.38 
B) 2.88 
C) 11.28 
D) 5.48 
A) 14.38 
B) 2.88 
C) 11.28 
D) 5.48

Question 11

In general terms, describe what TIME SERIES forecasting models are.

Accepted Answer

forecasting models t

Question 12

Daily humidity in the city of Houston for the last week have been: 93, 94, 93, 95, 92, 86, 98 (yesterday).Forecast the humidity today using a three-day moving average.

Accepted Answer

A) 90 
B) 88 
C) 94 
D) 92 
A) 90 
B) 88 
C) 94 
D) 92

Question 13

The following table shows the number of pies consumed by the deans' suite during a monthly pie-eating contest.   What is the forecast bias?

Accepted Answer

A) -1.86 
B) -1.04 
C) 1.04 
D) 1.86 
A) -1.86 
B) -1.04 
C) 1.04 
D) 1.86

Question 14

One MAD is equivalent to approximately

Accepted Answer

A) 0.8. 
B) 1.2. 
C) 1.6. 
D) 2.0. 
A) 0.8. 
B) 1.2. 
C) 1.6. 
D) 2.0.

Question 15

Demand for Y is shown in the table.   What is the intercept of the appropriate trend equation?

Accepted Answer

A) 14.38 
B) 2.88 
C) 11.28 
D) 5.48 
A) 14.38 
B) 2.88 
C) 11.28 
D) 5.48

Question 16

Enrollment in a particular class for the last four semesters has been 122, 128, 100, and 155 (listed from oldest to most recent).The best forecast of enrollment next semester, based on a three-semester moving average, would be

Accepted Answer

A) 116.7. 
B) 168.3. 
C) 135.0. 
D) 127.7. 
A) 116.7. 
B) 168.3. 
C) 135.0. 
D) 127.7.

Question 17

The exponential smoothing with trend model uses two smoothing constants, one constant works as in the exponential smoothing model and the other adjusts the line for presence of a trend.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 18

Multiple regression may be used to forecast both trend and seasonal components present in a time series.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

Demand for a particular type of battery fluctuates from one week to the next.A study of the last six weeks provides the following demands (in dozens): 4, 5, 3, 2, 8, 10 (last week).
(a)Forecast demand for the next week using a two-week moving average.
(b)Forecast demand for the next week using a three-week moving average.

Accepted Answer

(a)(8 + 10

Question 20

For the data below:
   (a)Develop a scatter diagram.
(b)Develop a three-month moving average.
(c)Compute MAD.

Accepted Answer

(a)scatter

Exam 5: Forecasting

The three categories of forecasting models are time series, quantitative, and qualitative.

Consider the actual and forecast values contained in the table. What is the tracking signal for the 5th point in the series (actual = 22 & forecast = 21.7)?

Briefly describe the jury of executive opinion forecasting method.

Which of the following is not considered one of the steps to developing the decomposition method?

Consider the actual and forecast values contained in the table. At which observation is the tracking signal at its maximum value?

In the exponential smoothing with trend adjustment forecasting method, β is the

Which of the following is considered a causal method of forecasting?

What is the basic additive decomposition model (in regression terms)?

Sales for boxes of Girl Scout cookies over a 4-month period were forecasted as follows: 100, 120, 115, and 123.The actual results over the 4-month period were as follows: 110, 114, 119, 115.What was the MSE of the 4-month forecast?

Demand for Y is shown in the table. What is the slope of the appropriate trend equation?

In general terms, describe what TIME SERIES forecasting models are.

Daily humidity in the city of Houston for the last week have been: 93, 94, 93, 95, 92, 86, 98 (yesterday).Forecast the humidity today using a three-day moving average.

The following table shows the number of pies consumed by the deans' suite during a monthly pie-eating contest. What is the forecast bias?

One MAD is equivalent to approximately

Demand for Y is shown in the table. What is the intercept of the appropriate trend equation?

Enrollment in a particular class for the last four semesters has been 122, 128, 100, and 155 (listed from oldest to most recent).The best forecast of enrollment next semester, based on a three-semester moving average, would be

The exponential smoothing with trend model uses two smoothing constants, one constant works as in the exponential smoothing model and the other adjusts the line for presence of a trend.

Multiple regression may be used to forecast both trend and seasonal components present in a time series.

For the data below: (a)Develop a scatter diagram. (b)Develop a three-month moving average. (c)Compute MAD.

Introduction to Quantitative Analysis

Probability Concepts and Applications

Decision Analysis

Regression Models

Inventory Control Models

Linear Programming Models: Graphical and Computer Methods

Linear Programming Applications

Transportation, Assignment, and Network Models

Integer Programming, Goal Programming, and Nonlinear Programming

Project Management

Waiting Lines and Queuing Theory Models

Simulation Modeling

Markov Analysis

Statistical Quality Control

Analytic Hierarchy Process

Dynamic Programming

Decision Theory and the Normal Distribution

Game Theory

Mathematical Tools: Determinants and Matrices

Calculus-Based Optimization

Linear Programming: The Simplex Method

Transportation, Assignment, and Network Algorithms

Filters