Question 1

Describe the combination forecast techniques and discuss how they have been shown to perform in recent studies.

Accepted Answer

Combination forecasts are forecasts that

Question 2

Forecast error is found by subtracting the forecast from the actual demand for a given period.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 3

The manufacturer developed and tested a questionnaire,designed to assist them in gauging the level of acceptance for their new product,and identified a representative sample as part of their:

Accepted Answer

A) salesforce estimate. 
B) market research. 
C) executive opinion. 
D) Delphi method. 
A) salesforce estimate. 
B) market research. 
C) executive opinion. 
D) Delphi method.

Question 4

A(n)________ measures the direction and strength between the independent variable and the dependent variable.

Accepted Answer

sample cor

Question 5

Technological forecasting is an application of executive opinion in light of the difficulties in keeping abreast of the latest advances in technology.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

Table 8.9
Consider the following results from the last ten periods of student enrollment forecast by the Operations Management department chairman.
  
-Use Table 8.9 to determine the tracking signal for period 4 for the department chairman's forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) 0)6 
B) -0.6 
C) 0)0 
D) -1.8 
A) 0)6 
B) -0.6 
C) 0)0 
D) -1.8

Question 7

The Bahouth Company wants to develop a sales forecast for a fast-selling new product line it has introduced,in order to help plan future production.The following information has been gathered by the Marketing Department.The past weekly average is 4,200 and the trend has been 250 additional units per week.This week's demand was 4,600 units.Using trend adjusted exponential smoothing,calculate the forecasted sales for next week? (Suppose α = 0.20 and β= 0.40. )

Accepted Answer

At-1 = 4,200 α = 0.2
Tt-1 = 25

Question 8

Table 8.9
Consider the following results from the last ten periods of student enrollment forecast by the Operations Management department chairman.
  
-Use Table 8.9 to determine the MAD for period 5 for the department chairman's forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) 2)0 
B) 2)8 
C) 2)67 
D) 2)42 
A) 2)0 
B) 2)8 
C) 2)67 
D) 2)42

Question 9

A linear regression model is developed that has a slope of -2.5 and an intercept of 10.The sample coefficient of determination is 0.50.Which of the following statements is TRUE?

Accepted Answer

A) The sample correlation coefficient must be 0.250. 
B) The sample correlation coefficient must be -0.707. 
C) The sample correlation coefficient must be -0.250. 
D) The sample correlation coefficient must be 1.00. 
A) The sample correlation coefficient must be 0.250. 
B) The sample correlation coefficient must be -0.707. 
C) The sample correlation coefficient must be -0.250. 
D) The sample correlation coefficient must be 1.00.

Question 10

Focus forecasting selects the best forecast from a group of forecasts generated by individual techniques.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

Ten months of data and the forecasts for those same periods are in the table below.Use mean bias,MAD,and MAPE to analyze the accuracy of the forecasts.

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& Bias = 7.

Question 12

Aggregating products or services together generally decreases the forecast accuracy.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 13

One of the basic time series patterns is random.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

A systematic increase or decrease in the mean of the series over time is a(n)________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of A systematic increase or decrease in the...

Question 15

Table 8.9
Consider the following results from the last ten periods of student enrollment forecast by the Operations Management department chairman.
  
-Use Table 8.9 to determine the cumulative sum of forecast errors as of period 6 for the department chairman's forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) -10 
B) -6 
C) -8 
D) -4 
A) -10 
B) -6 
C) -8 
D) -4

Question 16

In an exponential smoothing model a ________ value for alpha results in greater emphasis being placed on more recent periods.

Accepted Answer

The answer of In an exponential smoothing model a ________...

Question 17

Calculate three forecasts using the following data.First,for periods 4 through 10,develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F3)of 120.0 and an alpha of 0.3.Second,calculate the three-period moving-average forecast for periods 4 through 10.Third,calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 10,using weights of .60,.30,and .10.Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD)and the cumulative sum of forecast error (CFE)for each forecasting procedure.Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why?

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& @#IMG-DLM& Using MAD,the simp

Question 18

With the multiplicative seasonal method of forecasting:

Accepted Answer

A) the times series cannot exhibit a trend. 
B) seasonal factors are multiplied by an estimate of average demand to arrive at a seasonal forecast. 
C) the seasonal amplitude is a constant,regardless of the magnitude of average demand. 
D) there can be only four seasons in the time-series data. 
A) the times series cannot exhibit a trend. 
B) seasonal factors are multiplied by an estimate of average demand to arrive at a seasonal forecast. 
C) the seasonal amplitude is a constant,regardless of the magnitude of average demand. 
D) there can be only four seasons in the time-series data.

Question 19

The closer the value of the sample correlation coefficient is to -1.00,the worse the predictive ability of the independent variable for the dependent variable.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 20

________ are assumed to "cause" the results that a forecaster wishes to predict.

Accepted Answer

Independen

Exam 8: Forecasting

Describe the combination forecast techniques and discuss how they have been shown to perform in recent studies.

Forecast error is found by subtracting the forecast from the actual demand for a given period.

The manufacturer developed and tested a questionnaire,designed to assist them in gauging the level of acceptance for their new product,and identified a representative sample as part of their:

A(n)________ measures the direction and strength between the independent variable and the dependent variable.

Technological forecasting is an application of executive opinion in light of the difficulties in keeping abreast of the latest advances in technology.

Table 8.9 Consider the following results from the last ten periods of student enrollment forecast by the Operations Management department chairman. -Use Table 8.9 to determine the tracking signal for period 4 for the department chairman's forecast.

Table 8.9 Consider the following results from the last ten periods of student enrollment forecast by the Operations Management department chairman. -Use Table 8.9 to determine the MAD for period 5 for the department chairman's forecast.

A linear regression model is developed that has a slope of -2.5 and an intercept of 10.The sample coefficient of determination is 0.50.Which of the following statements is TRUE?

Focus forecasting selects the best forecast from a group of forecasts generated by individual techniques.

Ten months of data and the forecasts for those same periods are in the table below.Use mean bias,MAD,and MAPE to analyze the accuracy of the forecasts.

Aggregating products or services together generally decreases the forecast accuracy.

One of the basic time series patterns is random.

A systematic increase or decrease in the mean of the series over time is a(n)________.

Table 8.9 Consider the following results from the last ten periods of student enrollment forecast by the Operations Management department chairman. -Use Table 8.9 to determine the cumulative sum of forecast errors as of period 6 for the department chairman's forecast.

In an exponential smoothing model a ________ value for alpha results in greater emphasis being placed on more recent periods.

With the multiplicative seasonal method of forecasting:

The closer the value of the sample correlation coefficient is to -1.00,the worse the predictive ability of the independent variable for the dependent variable.

________ are assumed to "cause" the results that a forecaster wishes to predict.

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