Exam 10: Measuring Exposure to Exchange Rate Fluctuations

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Assume that your firm is an importer of Mexican chairs denominated in pesos. Your competition is mainly U.S. producers of chairs. You wish to assess the relationship between the percentage change in its stock price (SPt) and the percentage change in the peso's value relative to the dollar (PESOt). SPt is the dependent variable. You apply the regression model to an earlier subperiod and a more recent subperiod. In the recent subperiod, you increased your importing volume. You should expect that the regression coefficient in the PESOt variable would be ____ in the first subperiod and ____ in the second subperiod.

(Multiple Choice)
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According to the text, currency variability levels ____ perfectly stable over time, and currency correlations ____ perfectly stable over time.

(Multiple Choice)
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If positions in a specific currency among an MNC's subsidiaries offset each other, the decision by one subsidiary to hedge its position in that currency would increase the MNC's overall exposure.

(True/False)
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Which of the following is not true regarding economic exposure?

(Multiple Choice)
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Assume that Mill Corporation, a U.S.-based MNC, has applied the following regression model to estimate the sensitivity of its cash flows to exchange rate movements: PCFt = a0 + a1et + μ\mu t Where the term on the left-hand side is the percentage change in inflation-adjusted cash flows measured in the firm's home currency over period t, and et is the percentage change in the exchange rate of the currency over period t. The regression model estimates a coefficient of a1 of 2. This indicates that:

(Multiple Choice)
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A reduction in hedging will probably reduce transaction exposure.

(True/False)
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The VAR method presumes that the distribution of exchange rate movements is normal.

(True/False)
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Two highly negatively correlated currencies move in tandem almost as if they are the same currency.

(True/False)
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The transaction exposure of two inflow currencies is offset when the correlation between the currencies is high.

(True/False)
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Dollar cash flows associated with two foreign inflow currencies will normally be less volatile if the standard deviations of the individual currencies are lower.

(True/False)
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____ is (are) not a determinant of translation exposure.

(Multiple Choice)
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Consider an MNC that is exposed to the Bulgarian lev (BGL) and the Romanian leu (ROL). 30% of the MNC's funds are lev and 70% are leu. The standard deviation of exchange movements is 10% for lev and 15% for leu. The correlation coefficient between movements in the value of the lev and the leu is .85. Based on this information, the standard deviation of this two-currency portfolio is approximately:

(Multiple Choice)
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Which of the following is not true regarding currency correlations?

(Multiple Choice)
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In general, a firm that concentrates on local sales, has very little foreign competition, and obtains foreign supplies (denominated in foreign currencies) will likely ____ a(n) ____ local currency.

(Multiple Choice)
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Assume that the Japanese yen is expected to depreciate substantially over the next year. The U.S.-based MNC has a subsidiary in Japan, where its costs exceed revenues. The overall value of MNC will ____ because of the yen's depreciation.

(Multiple Choice)
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The exposure of an MNC's consolidated financial statements to exchange rate fluctuations is known as transaction exposure.

(True/False)
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Vada, Inc. exports computers to Australia invoiced in U.S. dollars. Its main competitor is located in Japan. Vada is subject to:

(Multiple Choice)
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Exhibit 10-1 Cerra Co. expects to receive 5 million euros tomorrow as a result of selling goods to the Netherlands. Cerra estimates the standard deviation of daily percentage changes of the euro to be 1 percent over the last 100 days. Assume that these percentage changes are normally distributed. Use the value-at-risk (VAR) method based on a 95% confidence level for the following question(s). -Refer to Exhibit 10-1. What is the maximum one-day loss if the expected percentage change of the euro tomorrow is 0.5%?

(Multiple Choice)
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The transaction exposure of two inflow currencies is offset when the correlation between the currencies is high.

(True/False)
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A company may become more exposed or sensitive to an individual currency's movements over time for several reasons, including a reduction in hedging, a greater involvement in the foreign country, or an increased use of the foreign currency.

(True/False)
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