Question 1

________ forecasting methods are primarily subjective and rely on human judgment.

Accepted Answer

A) Qualitative 
B) Time-series 
C) Causal 
D) Simulation 
A) Qualitative 
B) Time-series 
C) Causal 
D) Simulation

Question 2

The result when each stage in the supply chain makes its own separate forecast is often a match between supply and demand because these forecasts are often very different.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 3

The moving average forecast method is used when

Accepted Answer

A) demand has observable trend or seasonality. 
B) demand has no observable trend or seasonality. 
C) demand has observable trend and seasonality. 
D) demand has no observable level or seasonality. 
A) demand has observable trend or seasonality. 
B) demand has no observable trend or seasonality. 
C) demand has observable trend and seasonality. 
D) demand has no observable level or seasonality.

Question 4

Scenario 7.1 - Marshmallow Madness
Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table.
 $\begin{array}{|l|c|}
\hline \text { Month } & \text { Demand } \
\hline \text { January } & 11 \
\hline \text { February } & 18 \
\hline \text { March } & 31 \
\hline \text { April } & 39 \
\hline \text { May } & 44 \
\hline \text { June } & 53 \
\hline \text { July } & 67 \
\hline \text { August } & 82 \
\hline \text { September } & 96 \
\hline
\end{array}$
-What is the level component of Holt's model for period 0?

Accepted Answer

A) -2.5 
B) 10.3 
C) 2.5 
D) 6.4 
A) -2.5 
B) 10.3 
C) 2.5 
D) 6.4

Question 5

Scenario 7.2 - Gulab Greatness
Historical demand for gulab jamun from a sweet stall on Commercial Road is as displayed in the table.
 $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } 
\hline \text { Month } & \begin{array} { c } 
\text { Demand } \
\text { (orders) }
\end{array} \
\hline \text { January } & 66,753 \
\hline \text { February } & 67,686 \
\hline \text { March } & 68,641 \
\hline \text { April } & 68,979 \
\hline \text { May } & 69,278 \
\hline \text { June } & 69,577 \
\hline \text { July } & 69,602 \
\hline \text { August } & 70,348 \
\hline \text { September } & 70,806 \
\hline \text { October } & 71,011 \
\hline \text { November } & 71,819 \
\hline \text { December } & 72,752 \
\hline
\end{array}$$
-Use a simple moving average of three periods to forecast the demand for October.What is the forecast?

Accepted Answer

A) 70,252 
B) 70,722 
C) 69,842 
D) 71,212 
A) 70,252 
B) 70,722 
C) 69,842 
D) 71,212

Question 6

When either the supply of raw materials or the demand for the finished product is highly variable,forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisions

Accepted Answer

A) are extremely simple. 
B) are relatively straightforward. 
C) are extremely difficult. 
D) should not be attempted. 
A) are extremely simple. 
B) are relatively straightforward. 
C) are extremely difficult. 
D) should not be attempted.

Question 7

In adaptive forecasting,

Accepted Answer

A) there is an assumption that the estimates of level,trend,and seasonality within the systematic component do not vary as new demand is observed. 
B) the estimates of level,trend,and seasonality within the systematic component are not adjusted as new demand is observed. 
C) the estimates of level,trend,and seasonality are updated after each demand observation. 
D) All of the above are true. 
A) there is an assumption that the estimates of level,trend,and seasonality within the systematic component do not vary as new demand is observed. 
B) the estimates of level,trend,and seasonality within the systematic component are not adjusted as new demand is observed. 
C) the estimates of level,trend,and seasonality are updated after each demand observation. 
D) All of the above are true.

Question 8

Which forecasting methods are the simplest to implement and can serve as a good starting point for a demand forecast?

Accepted Answer

A) Qualitative forecasting methods 
B) Time series forecasting methods 
C) Causal forecasting methods 
D) Simulation forecasting methods 
A) Qualitative forecasting methods 
B) Time series forecasting methods 
C) Causal forecasting methods 
D) Simulation forecasting methods

Question 9

Collaborative forecasting based on sales to the end customer can help enterprises further up the supply chain reduce forecast error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

Use Solver to determine the alpha that minimizes the MSE for the exponential smoothing forecast for the data that appear in this table.Use the actual demand of period 1 as the forecast for period 2 and then use the forecasts for periods 2 through 9 to calculate MSE. $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } 
\hline \text { Period } & \text { Demand } \
\hline 1 & 272 \
\hline 2 & 278 \
\hline 3 & 269 \
\hline 4 & 280 \
\hline 5 & 267 \
\hline 6 & 258 \
\hline 7 & 278 \
\hline 8 & 298 \
\hline 9 & 286 \
\hline 10 & 290 \
\hline
\end{array}$$

Accepted Answer

A) 0.39 
B) 0.48 
C) 0.57 
D) 0.66 
A) 0.39 
B) 0.48 
C) 0.57 
D) 0.66

Question 11

Forecasting methods that imitate the consumer choices that give rise to demand to arrive at a forecast are known as

Accepted Answer

A) qualitative forecasting methods. 
B) time series forecasting methods. 
C) causal forecasting methods. 
D) simulation forecasting methods. 
A) qualitative forecasting methods. 
B) time series forecasting methods. 
C) causal forecasting methods. 
D) simulation forecasting methods.

Question 12

Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts because

Accepted Answer

A) aggregate forecasts tend to have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean. 
B) aggregate forecasts tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean. 
C) disaggregate forecasts tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean. 
D) disaggregate forecasts tend to have less standard deviation of error relative to the mean. 
A) aggregate forecasts tend to have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean. 
B) aggregate forecasts tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean. 
C) disaggregate forecasts tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean. 
D) disaggregate forecasts tend to have less standard deviation of error relative to the mean.

Question 13

What does deseasonalizing a data set accomplish?

Accepted Answer

A) It removes the wavelike pattern from the data. 
B) It removes all point-to-point variation from the data. 
C) It removes all change in level from the data. 
D) It removes the progression from one point to another from the data. 
A) It removes the wavelike pattern from the data. 
B) It removes all point-to-point variation from the data. 
C) It removes all change in level from the data. 
D) It removes the progression from one point to another from the data.

Question 14

The ________ is a good measure of forecast error when the underlying forecast has significant seasonality and demand varies considerably from one period to the next.

Accepted Answer

A) MAD 
B) MSE 
C) MKE 
D) MAPE 
A) MAD 
B) MSE 
C) MKE 
D) MAPE

Question 15

The measure of forecast error where the absolute amount of error of each forecast is averaged is

Accepted Answer

A) mean squared error (MS
E) . 
B) mean absolute deviation (MA
D) . 
C) mean absolute percentage error (MAP
E) . 
D) bias. 
A) mean squared error (MS
E) . 
B) mean absolute deviation (MA
D) . 
C) mean absolute percentage error (MAP
E) . 
D) bias.

Question 16

The basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain comes from

Accepted Answer

A) the forecast of demand. 
B) sales targets. 
C) profitability projections. 
D) production efficiency goals. 
A) the forecast of demand. 
B) sales targets. 
C) profitability projections. 
D) production efficiency goals.

Question 17

Excel's Solver function should be used to minimize the forecast errors in a model.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 18

The forecast error measures the difference between the forecast and the estimate.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

What Excel function/feature should be used to calculate a moving average?

Accepted Answer

A) Solver 
B) =AVERAGE 
C) =MAVE 
D) Goal seek 
A) Solver 
B) =AVERAGE 
C) =MAVE 
D) Goal seek

Question 20

Mature products with stable demand are usually the most difficult to forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

________ forecasting methods are primarily subjective and rely on human judgment.

The result when each stage in the supply chain makes its own separate forecast is often a match between supply and demand because these forecasts are often very different.

The moving average forecast method is used when

Scenario 7.1 - Marshmallow Madness Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table. Month Demand January 11 February 18 March 31 April 39 May 44 June 53 July 67 August 82 September 96 -What is the level component of Holt's model for period 0?

When either the supply of raw materials or the demand for the finished product is highly variable,forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisions

In adaptive forecasting,

Which forecasting methods are the simplest to implement and can serve as a good starting point for a demand forecast?

Collaborative forecasting based on sales to the end customer can help enterprises further up the supply chain reduce forecast error.

Forecasting methods that imitate the consumer choices that give rise to demand to arrive at a forecast are known as

Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts because

What does deseasonalizing a data set accomplish?

The ________ is a good measure of forecast error when the underlying forecast has significant seasonality and demand varies considerably from one period to the next.

The measure of forecast error where the absolute amount of error of each forecast is averaged is

The basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain comes from

Excel's Solver function should be used to minimize the forecast errors in a model.

The forecast error measures the difference between the forecast and the estimate.

What Excel function/feature should be used to calculate a moving average?

Mature products with stable demand are usually the most difficult to forecast.

Understanding the Supply Chain

Achieving Strategic Fit in a Supply Chain

Supply Chain Drivers and Metrics

Designing Distribution Networks and Applications to E-Business

Network Design in the Supply Chain

Designing Global Supply Chain Networks

Aggregate Planning in a Supply Chain

Sales and Operations Planning: Planning Supply and Demand

Coordination in a Supply Chain

Managing Economies of Scale in a Supply Chain: Cycle Inventory

Managing Uncertainty in a Supply Chain: Safety Inventory

Linking Product Availability to Profits

Transportation in a Supply Chain

Sourcing Decisions in a Supply Chain

Pricing and Revenue Management in a Supply Chain

Sustainability and the Supply Chain

Filters

Exam 7: Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain

________ forecasting methods are primarily subjective and rely on human judgment.

The result when each stage in the supply chain makes its own separate forecast is often a match between supply and demand because these forecasts are often very different.

The moving average forecast method is used when

Scenario 7.1 - Marshmallow Madness Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table. Month Demand January 11 February 18 March 31 April 39 May 44 June 53 July 67 August 82 September 96 -What is the level component of Holt's model for period 0?

When either the supply of raw materials or the demand for the finished product is highly variable,forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisions

In adaptive forecasting,

Which forecasting methods are the simplest to implement and can serve as a good starting point for a demand forecast?

Collaborative forecasting based on sales to the end customer can help enterprises further up the supply chain reduce forecast error.

Forecasting methods that imitate the consumer choices that give rise to demand to arrive at a forecast are known as

Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts because

What does deseasonalizing a data set accomplish?

The ________ is a good measure of forecast error when the underlying forecast has significant seasonality and demand varies considerably from one period to the next.

The measure of forecast error where the absolute amount of error of each forecast is averaged is

The basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain comes from

Excel's Solver function should be used to minimize the forecast errors in a model.

The forecast error measures the difference between the forecast and the estimate.

What Excel function/feature should be used to calculate a moving average?

Mature products with stable demand are usually the most difficult to forecast.

Understanding the Supply Chain

Achieving Strategic Fit in a Supply Chain

Supply Chain Drivers and Metrics

Designing Distribution Networks and Applications to E-Business

Network Design in the Supply Chain

Designing Global Supply Chain Networks

Aggregate Planning in a Supply Chain

Sales and Operations Planning: Planning Supply and Demand

Coordination in a Supply Chain

Managing Economies of Scale in a Supply Chain: Cycle Inventory

Managing Uncertainty in a Supply Chain: Safety Inventory

Linking Product Availability to Profits

Transportation in a Supply Chain

Sourcing Decisions in a Supply Chain

Pricing and Revenue Management in a Supply Chain

Sustainability and the Supply Chain

Filters