Question 1

The exponential smoothing forecast for any period is a weighted average of all the previous actual values for the time series.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

Gradual shifting of a time series over a long period of time is called

Accepted Answer

A) periodicity. 
B) cycle. 
C) regression. 
D) trend. 
A) periodicity. 
B) cycle. 
C) regression. 
D) trend.

Question 3

In order to forecast the attendance at an annual tennis tournament,a model has been developed which uses attendance from the previous year and the amount spent for advertising this year.From the years shown in the table,forecast the attendance for years 2-5 and calculate the forecast error.
   The multiple regression model is Attendance = 6738 + .23($)+ .25 (Attlag)

Accepted Answer

The answer of In order to forecast the attendance at...

Question 4

The mean squared error is influenced much more by large forecast errors than by small errors.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

Linear trend is calculated as Tt = 28.5 + .75t.The trend projection for period 15 is

Accepted Answer

A) 11.25 
B) 28.50 
C) 39.75 
D) 44.25 
A) 11.25 
B) 28.50 
C) 39.75 
D) 44.25

Question 6

The number of new contributors to a public radio station's annual fund drive over the last ten years is
63,58,61,72,98,103,121,147,163,198
Develop a trend equation for this information,and use it to predict next year's number of new contributors.

Accepted Answer

FORECASTING WITH LINEAR TREND
**********

Question 7

Any recurring sequence of points above and below the trend line lasting less than one year can be attributed to the cyclical component of the time series.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 8

Forecast errors

Accepted Answer

A) are the difference in successive values of a time series 
B) are the differences between actual and forecast values 
C) should all be nonnegative 
D) should be summed to judge the goodness of a forecasting model 
A) are the difference in successive values of a time series 
B) are the differences between actual and forecast values 
C) should all be nonnegative 
D) should be summed to judge the goodness of a forecasting model

Question 9

A trend line for the attendance at a restaurant's Sunday brunch is given by
Number = 264 + .72(t)
How many guests would you expect in week 20?

Accepted Answer

264 + .72(

Question 10

If the random variability in a time series is great and exponential smoothing is being used to forecast,then a high alpha ($\alpha$)value should be used.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

Short-term,unanticipated,and nonrecurring factors in a time series provide the random variability known as

Accepted Answer

A) uncertainty. 
B) the forecast error. 
C) the residuals. 
D) the irregular component. 
A) uncertainty. 
B) the forecast error. 
C) the residuals. 
D) the irregular component.

Question 12

Use a four period moving average to forecast attendance at baseball games.Historical records show
5346,7812,6513,5783,5982,6519,6283,5577,6712,7345

Accepted Answer

FORECASTING WITH MOVING AVERAG

Question 13

A 24-hour coffee/donut shop makes donuts every eight hours.The manager must forecast donut demand so that the bakers have the fresh ingredients they need.Listed below is the actual number of glazed donuts (in dozens)sold in each of the preceding 13 eight-hour shifts.
   Forecast the demand for glazed donuts for the three shifts of June 8 and the three shifts of June 9.

Accepted Answer

F_6/8,N = 42.15;F_6/8,D= 70.14;F

Question 14

Trend in a time series must be linear.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 15

Exponential smoothing with $\alpha$=.2 and a moving average with n = 5 put the same weight on the actual value for the current period.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

All quarterly time series contain seasonality.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

Monthly sales at a coffee shop have been analyzed.The seasonal index values are
   and the trend line is 74123 + 26.9(t).Assume there is no cyclical component and forecast sales for year 8 (months 97 - 108).

Accepted Answer

The answer of Monthly sales at a coffee shop have...

Question 18

A time series model with a seasonal component will always involve quarterly data.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

Which of the following forecasting methods puts the least weight on the most recent time series value?

Accepted Answer

A) exponential smoothing with $\alpha$ = .3 
B) exponential smoothing with $\alpha$ = .2 
C) moving average using the most recent 4 periods 
D) moving average using the most recent 3 periods 
A) exponential smoothing with $\alpha$ = .3 
B) exponential smoothing with $\alpha$ = .2 
C) moving average using the most recent 4 periods 
D) moving average using the most recent 3 periods

Question 20

Seasonal components

Accepted Answer

A) cannot be predicted. 
B) are regular repeated patterns. 
C) are long runs of observations above or below the trend line. 
D) reflect a shift in the series over time. 
A) cannot be predicted. 
B) are regular repeated patterns. 
C) are long runs of observations above or below the trend line. 
D) reflect a shift in the series over time.

The exponential smoothing forecast for any period is a weighted average of all the previous actual values for the time series.

Gradual shifting of a time series over a long period of time is called

The mean squared error is influenced much more by large forecast errors than by small errors.

Linear trend is calculated as T_t = 28.5 + .75t.The trend projection for period 15 is

The number of new contributors to a public radio station's annual fund drive over the last ten years is 63,58,61,72,98,103,121,147,163,198 Develop a trend equation for this information,and use it to predict next year's number of new contributors.

Any recurring sequence of points above and below the trend line lasting less than one year can be attributed to the cyclical component of the time series.

Forecast errors

A trend line for the attendance at a restaurant's Sunday brunch is given by Number = 264 + .72(t) How many guests would you expect in week 20?

If the random variability in a time series is great and exponential smoothing is being used to forecast,then a high alpha ( $\alpha$ )value should be used.

Short-term,unanticipated,and nonrecurring factors in a time series provide the random variability known as

Use a four period moving average to forecast attendance at baseball games.Historical records show 5346,7812,6513,5783,5982,6519,6283,5577,6712,7345

Trend in a time series must be linear.

Exponential smoothing with $\alpha$ =.2 and a moving average with n = 5 put the same weight on the actual value for the current period.

All quarterly time series contain seasonality.

Monthly sales at a coffee shop have been analyzed.The seasonal index values are and the trend line is 74123 + 26.9(t).Assume there is no cyclical component and forecast sales for year 8 (months 97 - 108).

A time series model with a seasonal component will always involve quarterly data.

Which of the following forecasting methods puts the least weight on the most recent time series value?

Seasonal components

Introduction

Introduction to Probability

Probability Distributions

Decision Analysis

Utility and Game Theory

Introduction to Linear Programming

Lp Sensitivity Analysis and Interpretation of Solution

Linear Programming Applications

Distribution and Network Problems

Integer Linear Programming

Advanced Optimization Application

Project Scheduling: Pertcpm

Inventory Models

Waiting Line Models

Simulation

Markov Processes

Filters

Exam 6: Forecasting

The exponential smoothing forecast for any period is a weighted average of all the previous actual values for the time series.

Gradual shifting of a time series over a long period of time is called

The mean squared error is influenced much more by large forecast errors than by small errors.

Linear trend is calculated as Tt = 28.5 + .75t.The trend projection for period 15 is

The number of new contributors to a public radio station's annual fund drive over the last ten years is 63,58,61,72,98,103,121,147,163,198 Develop a trend equation for this information,and use it to predict next year's number of new contributors.

Any recurring sequence of points above and below the trend line lasting less than one year can be attributed to the cyclical component of the time series.

Forecast errors

A trend line for the attendance at a restaurant's Sunday brunch is given by Number = 264 + .72(t) How many guests would you expect in week 20?

If the random variability in a time series is great and exponential smoothing is being used to forecast,then a high alpha ( α\alphaα )value should be used.

Short-term,unanticipated,and nonrecurring factors in a time series provide the random variability known as

Use a four period moving average to forecast attendance at baseball games.Historical records show 5346,7812,6513,5783,5982,6519,6283,5577,6712,7345

Trend in a time series must be linear.

Exponential smoothing with α\alphaα =.2 and a moving average with n = 5 put the same weight on the actual value for the current period.

All quarterly time series contain seasonality.

Monthly sales at a coffee shop have been analyzed.The seasonal index values are and the trend line is 74123 + 26.9(t).Assume there is no cyclical component and forecast sales for year 8 (months 97 - 108).

A time series model with a seasonal component will always involve quarterly data.

Which of the following forecasting methods puts the least weight on the most recent time series value?

Seasonal components

Introduction

Introduction to Probability

Probability Distributions

Decision Analysis

Utility and Game Theory

Introduction to Linear Programming

Lp Sensitivity Analysis and Interpretation of Solution

Linear Programming Applications

Distribution and Network Problems

Integer Linear Programming

Advanced Optimization Application

Project Scheduling: Pertcpm

Inventory Models

Waiting Line Models

Simulation

Markov Processes

Filters

Linear trend is calculated as T_t = 28.5 + .75t.The trend projection for period 15 is

If the random variability in a time series is great and exponential smoothing is being used to forecast,then a high alpha ( $\alpha$ )value should be used.

Exponential smoothing with $\alpha$ =.2 and a moving average with n = 5 put the same weight on the actual value for the current period.