Question 1

If a time series has a significant trend component,then one should not use a moving average to forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

Which of the following exponential smoothing constant values puts the same weight on the most recent time series value as does a 5-period moving average?

Accepted Answer

A) $\alpha$ = .2 
B) $\alpha$ = .25 
C) $\alpha$ = .75 
D) $\alpha$ = .8 
A) $\alpha$ = .2 
B) $\alpha$ = .25 
C) $\alpha$ = .75 
D) $\alpha$ = .8

Question 3

Smoothing methods are more appropriate for a stable time series than when significant trend and/or seasonal variation are present.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

The number of girls who attend a summer basketball camp has been recorded for the seven years the camp has been offered.Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .8 to forecast attendance for the eighth year.
47,68,65,92,98,121,146

Accepted Answer

FORECASTING WITH EXPONENTIAL S

Question 5

To select a value for $\alpha$ for exponential smoothing

Accepted Answer

A) use a small $\alpha$ when the series varies substantially. 
B) use a large $\alpha$ when the series has little random variability. 
C) use any value between 0 and 1 
D) All of the alternatives are true. 
A) use a small $\alpha$ when the series varies substantially. 
B) use a large $\alpha$ when the series has little random variability. 
C) use any value between 0 and 1 
D) All of the alternatives are true.

Question 6

The focus of smoothing methods is to smooth

Accepted Answer

A) the irregular component. 
B) wide seasonal variations. 
C) significant trend effects. 
D) long range forecasts. 
A) the irregular component. 
B) wide seasonal variations. 
C) significant trend effects. 
D) long range forecasts.

Question 7

The trend component is easy to identify by using

Accepted Answer

A) moving averages 
B) exponential smoothing 
C) regression analysis 
D) the Delphi approach 
A) moving averages 
B) exponential smoothing 
C) regression analysis 
D) the Delphi approach

Question 8

The number of pizzas ordered on Friday evenings between 5:30 and 6:30 at a pizza delivery location for the last 10 weeks is shown below.Use exponential smoothing with smoothing constants of .2 and .8 to forecast a value for week 11.Compare your forecasts using MSE.Which smoothing constant would you prefer?
58,46,55,39,42,63,54,55,61,52

Accepted Answer

FORECASTING WITH EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
*

Question 9

The number of properties newly listed with a real estate agency in each quarter over the last four years is given.Calculate the seasonal index values.

Accepted Answer

The answer of The number of properties newly listed with...

Question 10

The number of cans of soft drinks sold in a machine each week is recorded below.Develop forecasts using a three period moving average.
338,219,278,265,314,323,299,259,287,302

Accepted Answer

FORECASTING WITH MOVING AVERAG

Question 11

The time series component that is analogous to the seasonal component but over a longer period of time is the

Accepted Answer

A) irregular component 
B) trend component 
C) causal component 
D) cyclical component 
A) irregular component 
B) trend component 
C) causal component 
D) cyclical component

Question 12

Time series methods

Accepted Answer

A) discover a pattern in historical data and project it into the future. 
B) include cause-effect relationships. 
C) are useful when historical information is not available. 
D) All of the alternatives are true. 
A) discover a pattern in historical data and project it into the future. 
B) include cause-effect relationships. 
C) are useful when historical information is not available. 
D) All of the alternatives are true.

Question 13

A qualitative forecasting method that obtains forecasts through "group consensus" is known as the

Accepted Answer

A) Autoregressive model 
B) Delphi approach 
C) mean absolute deviation 
D) None of these alternatives is correct. 
A) Autoregressive model 
B) Delphi approach 
C) mean absolute deviation 
D) None of these alternatives is correct.

Question 14

The number of plumbing repair jobs performed by Auger's Plumbing Service in each of the last nine months are listed below.
   
a.Assuming a linear trend function,forecast the number of repair jobs Auger's will perform in December using the least squares method.
b.What is your forecast for December using a three-period weighted moving average with weights of .6,.3,and .1? How does it compare with your forecast from part (a)?

Accepted Answer

a.T₁₀ = 349.667 + (10)

Question 15

Using exponential smoothing,the demand forecast for time period 10 equals the demand forecast for time period 9 plus

Accepted Answer

A) $\alpha$ times (the demand forecast for time period 8) 
B) $\alpha$ times (the error in the demand forecast for time period 9) 
C) $\alpha$ times (the observed demand in time period 9) 
D) $\alpha$ times (the demand forecast for time period 9) 
A) $\alpha$ times (the demand forecast for time period 8) 
B) $\alpha$ times (the error in the demand forecast for time period 9) 
C) $\alpha$ times (the observed demand in time period 9) 
D) $\alpha$ times (the demand forecast for time period 9)

Question 16

Connie Harris,in charge of office supplies at First Capital Mortgage Corp. ,would like to predict the quantity of paper used in the office photocopying machines per month.She believes that the number of loans originated in a month influence the volume of photocopying performed.She has compiled the following recent monthly data:
   
a.Develop the least-squares estimated regression equation that relates sheets of photocopy paper used to loans originated.
b.Use the regression equation developed in part (a)to forecast the amount of paper used in a month when 65 loan originations are expected.

Accepted Answer

FORECast =

Question 17

A hospital records the number of floral deliveries its patients receive each day.For a two week period,the records show
15,27,26,24,18,21,26,19,15,28,25,26,17,23
Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .4 to forecast the number of deliveries.

Accepted Answer

FORECASTING WITH EXPONENTIAL S

Question 18

One measure of the accuracy of a forecasting model is the

Accepted Answer

A) smoothing constant 
B) trend component 
C) mean absolute deviation 
D) seasonal index 
A) smoothing constant 
B) trend component 
C) mean absolute deviation 
D) seasonal index

Question 19

The multiplicative model

Accepted Answer

A) uses centered moving averages to smooth the trend fluctuations. 
B) removes trend before isolating the seasonal components. 
C) deseasonalizes a time series by dividing the values by the appropriate seasonal index. 
D) provides a unique seasonal index for each observation of the time series. 
A) uses centered moving averages to smooth the trend fluctuations. 
B) removes trend before isolating the seasonal components. 
C) deseasonalizes a time series by dividing the values by the appropriate seasonal index. 
D) provides a unique seasonal index for each observation of the time series.

Question 20

A four-period moving average forecast for period 10 would be found by averaging the values from periods 10,9,8,and 7.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

If a time series has a significant trend component,then one should not use a moving average to forecast.

Which of the following exponential smoothing constant values puts the same weight on the most recent time series value as does a 5-period moving average?

Smoothing methods are more appropriate for a stable time series than when significant trend and/or seasonal variation are present.

The number of girls who attend a summer basketball camp has been recorded for the seven years the camp has been offered.Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .8 to forecast attendance for the eighth year. 47,68,65,92,98,121,146

To select a value for $\alpha$ for exponential smoothing

The focus of smoothing methods is to smooth

The trend component is easy to identify by using

The number of properties newly listed with a real estate agency in each quarter over the last four years is given.Calculate the seasonal index values.

The number of cans of soft drinks sold in a machine each week is recorded below.Develop forecasts using a three period moving average. 338,219,278,265,314,323,299,259,287,302

The time series component that is analogous to the seasonal component but over a longer period of time is the

Time series methods

A qualitative forecasting method that obtains forecasts through "group consensus" is known as the

Using exponential smoothing,the demand forecast for time period 10 equals the demand forecast for time period 9 plus

A hospital records the number of floral deliveries its patients receive each day.For a two week period,the records show 15,27,26,24,18,21,26,19,15,28,25,26,17,23 Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .4 to forecast the number of deliveries.

One measure of the accuracy of a forecasting model is the

The multiplicative model

A four-period moving average forecast for period 10 would be found by averaging the values from periods 10,9,8,and 7.

Introduction

Introduction to Probability

Probability Distributions

Decision Analysis

Utility and Game Theory

Introduction to Linear Programming

Lp Sensitivity Analysis and Interpretation of Solution

Linear Programming Applications

Distribution and Network Problems

Integer Linear Programming

Advanced Optimization Application

Project Scheduling: Pertcpm

Inventory Models

Waiting Line Models

Simulation

Markov Processes

Filters

Exam 6: Forecasting

If a time series has a significant trend component,then one should not use a moving average to forecast.

Which of the following exponential smoothing constant values puts the same weight on the most recent time series value as does a 5-period moving average?

Smoothing methods are more appropriate for a stable time series than when significant trend and/or seasonal variation are present.

The number of girls who attend a summer basketball camp has been recorded for the seven years the camp has been offered.Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .8 to forecast attendance for the eighth year. 47,68,65,92,98,121,146

To select a value for α\alphaα for exponential smoothing

The focus of smoothing methods is to smooth

The trend component is easy to identify by using

The number of properties newly listed with a real estate agency in each quarter over the last four years is given.Calculate the seasonal index values.

The number of cans of soft drinks sold in a machine each week is recorded below.Develop forecasts using a three period moving average. 338,219,278,265,314,323,299,259,287,302

The time series component that is analogous to the seasonal component but over a longer period of time is the

Time series methods

A qualitative forecasting method that obtains forecasts through "group consensus" is known as the

Using exponential smoothing,the demand forecast for time period 10 equals the demand forecast for time period 9 plus

A hospital records the number of floral deliveries its patients receive each day.For a two week period,the records show 15,27,26,24,18,21,26,19,15,28,25,26,17,23 Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .4 to forecast the number of deliveries.

One measure of the accuracy of a forecasting model is the

The multiplicative model

A four-period moving average forecast for period 10 would be found by averaging the values from periods 10,9,8,and 7.

Introduction

Introduction to Probability

Probability Distributions

Decision Analysis

Utility and Game Theory

Introduction to Linear Programming

Lp Sensitivity Analysis and Interpretation of Solution

Linear Programming Applications

Distribution and Network Problems

Integer Linear Programming

Advanced Optimization Application

Project Scheduling: Pertcpm

Inventory Models

Waiting Line Models

Simulation

Markov Processes

Filters

To select a value for $\alpha$ for exponential smoothing