Exam 22: Decision Analysis

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Power Company A payoff table for a power company is shown below: Power Company  A payoff table for a power company is shown below:   The following prior probabilities are assigned to the states of nature: P(s<sub>1</sub>)= 0.3,P(s<sub>2</sub>)= 0.7. ​ ​ -{Power Company Narrative} What is the expected payoff with perfect information? The following prior probabilities are assigned to the states of nature: P(s1)= 0.3,P(s2)= 0.7. ​ ​ -{Power Company Narrative} What is the expected payoff with perfect information?

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Candy Store A payoff table for a Candy store is shown below. Candy Store  A payoff table for a Candy store is shown below.   The following prior probabilities are assigned to the states of nature: P(s<sub>1</sub>)= 0.2,P(s<sub>2</sub>)= 0.6,and P(s<sub>3</sub>)= 0.2. ​ ​ -{Candy Store Narrative} What is the expected value of perfect information? The following prior probabilities are assigned to the states of nature: P(s1)= 0.2,P(s2)= 0.6,and P(s3)= 0.2. ​ ​ -{Candy Store Narrative} What is the expected value of perfect information?

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The difference between the expected monetary value with additional information (EMV')and the expected monetary value without additional information (EMV*)is called the expected value of ____________________ information and is denoted EVSI.

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Car Audio Store For a car audio store,a payoff table,the prior probabilities for two states of nature,and the likelihood probabilities are shown below: Payoff Table: Car Audio Store  For a car audio store,a payoff table,the prior probabilities for two states of nature,and the likelihood probabilities are shown below: Payoff Table:     ​ ​ -{Car Audio Store Narrative} What is the expected value of perfect information? Car Audio Store  For a car audio store,a payoff table,the prior probabilities for two states of nature,and the likelihood probabilities are shown below: Payoff Table:     ​ ​ -{Car Audio Store Narrative} What is the expected value of perfect information? ​ ​ -{Car Audio Store Narrative} What is the expected value of perfect information?

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Sporting Goods Store A payoff table for a clothing store is shown below. Sporting Goods Store  A payoff table for a clothing store is shown below.   The following prior probabilities are assigned to the states of nature: P(s<sub>1</sub>)= 0.2,P(s<sub>2</sub>)= 0.6,and P(s<sub>3</sub>)= 0.2. ​ ​ -{Sporting Goods Store Narrative} Set up the opportunity loss table. The following prior probabilities are assigned to the states of nature: P(s1)= 0.2,P(s2)= 0.6,and P(s3)= 0.2. ​ ​ -{Sporting Goods Store Narrative} Set up the opportunity loss table.

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Graphic Design Business A high school student,who started doing graphic designs as a hobby,is considering going into the graphic design business.The anticipated payoff table is:  Graphic Design Business  A high school student,who started doing graphic designs as a hobby,is considering going into the graphic design business.The anticipated payoff table is:   The following prior probabilities are assigned to the states of nature: P(poor)= 0.4,P(fair)= 0.4,and P(super)= 0.2. ​ ​ -{Graphic Design Business Narrative} What is the expected payoff with perfect information? The following prior probabilities are assigned to the states of nature: P(poor)= 0.4,P(fair)= 0.4,and P(super)= 0.2. ​ ​ -{Graphic Design Business Narrative} What is the expected payoff with perfect information?

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Power Company A payoff table for a power company is shown below: Power Company  A payoff table for a power company is shown below:   The following prior probabilities are assigned to the states of nature: P(s<sub>1</sub>)= 0.3,P(s<sub>2</sub>)= 0.7. ​ ​ -{Power Company Narrative} What is the expected value of perfect information? The following prior probabilities are assigned to the states of nature: P(s1)= 0.3,P(s2)= 0.7. ​ ​ -{Power Company Narrative} What is the expected value of perfect information?

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The expected value of perfect information (EVPI)equals the smallest ____________________.This is not a coincidence.

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Dishwasher Designs Three different designs are being considered for a new dishwasher,and profits will depend on the combination of the dishwasher design and market condition.The following payoff table summarizes the decision situation,with amounts in millions of dollars. Dishwasher Designs  Three different designs are being considered for a new dishwasher,and profits will depend on the combination of the dishwasher design and market condition.The following payoff table summarizes the decision situation,with amounts in millions of dollars.   Assume that the following probabilities are assigned to the three market conditions: P(s<sub>1</sub>)= 0.1,P(s<sub>2</sub>)= 0.6,and P(s<sub>3</sub>)= 0.3. ​ ​ -{Dishwasher Designs Narrative} Convert the payoff table to an opportunity loss table. Assume that the following probabilities are assigned to the three market conditions: P(s1)= 0.1,P(s2)= 0.6,and P(s3)= 0.3. ​ ​ -{Dishwasher Designs Narrative} Convert the payoff table to an opportunity loss table.

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All entries of any opportunity loss table are negative values since they represent losses.

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A(n)____________________ probability is based on ideas,attitudes,or opinions that an investor may have.

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Custom Home Designs Three different designs are being considered for new custom homes,and profits will depend on the combination of the custom home design and market condition.The following payoff table summarizes the decision situation,with amounts in millions of dollars. Custom Home Designs  Three different designs are being considered for new custom homes,and profits will depend on the combination of the custom home design and market condition.The following payoff table summarizes the decision situation,with amounts in millions of dollars.   Assume that the following probabilities are assigned to the three market conditions: P(s<sub>1</sub>)= 0.1,P(s<sub>2</sub>)= 0.6,and P(s<sub>3</sub>)= 0.3. ​ ​ -{Custom Home Designs Narrative} Determine the expected payoff that would be realized if perfect information were available. Assume that the following probabilities are assigned to the three market conditions: P(s1)= 0.1,P(s2)= 0.6,and P(s3)= 0.3. ​ ​ -{Custom Home Designs Narrative} Determine the expected payoff that would be realized if perfect information were available.

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The minimum expected opportunity loss is also equal to the:

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The expected value of perfect information (EVPI)equals the largest expected opportunity loss (EOL*).

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Container Company ​ A company must decide whether or not to change its packaging to a more environmentally safe material.The impact of the decision on profits depends on which of the following three possible scenarios develops in the future. ​ Scenario 1: The media does not focus heavily on concerns about packaging and no new laws requiring changes in packaging are passed.Under this scenario,the company will make $35 million if they change their packaging now,but will make $75 million if they do not change their packaging now. ​ Scenario 2: The media does focus heavily on concerns about packaging and no new laws requiring changes in packaging are passed.Under this scenario,the company will make $50 million if they change their packaging now,but will make $55 million if they do not change their packaging now. ​ Scenario 3: The media does focus heavily on concerns about packaging and new laws requiring changes in packaging are passed.Under this scenario,the company will make $60 million if they change their packaging now,but will make only $15 million if they do not change their packaging now. ​ The prior probabilities of the three scenarios are 0.3,0.5,and 0.2,respectively. ​ ​ -{Container Company Narrative} Which decision has the minimum expected opportunity loss?

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What is meant by the expected monetary value (EMV)of a decision alternative?

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Food Market The following table displays the payoffs (in thousands of dollars)for five different decision alternatives under three possible states of nature for a new food market: Food Market  The following table displays the payoffs (in thousands of dollars)for five different decision alternatives under three possible states of nature for a new food market:   The prior probabilities of the states of nature are: P(s<sub>1</sub>)= 0.2,P(s<sub>2</sub>)= 0.3,and P(s<sub>3</sub>)= 0.5. ​ ​ -{Food Market Narrative} Calculate the expected opportunity loss for each act with present information.What decision should be made using the EOL criterion? The prior probabilities of the states of nature are: P(s1)= 0.2,P(s2)= 0.3,and P(s3)= 0.5. ​ ​ -{Food Market Narrative} Calculate the expected opportunity loss for each act with present information.What decision should be made using the EOL criterion?

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Container Company ​ A company must decide whether or not to change its packaging to a more environmentally safe material.The impact of the decision on profits depends on which of the following three possible scenarios develops in the future. ​ Scenario 1: The media does not focus heavily on concerns about packaging and no new laws requiring changes in packaging are passed.Under this scenario,the company will make $35 million if they change their packaging now,but will make $75 million if they do not change their packaging now. ​ Scenario 2: The media does focus heavily on concerns about packaging and no new laws requiring changes in packaging are passed.Under this scenario,the company will make $50 million if they change their packaging now,but will make $55 million if they do not change their packaging now. ​ Scenario 3: The media does focus heavily on concerns about packaging and new laws requiring changes in packaging are passed.Under this scenario,the company will make $60 million if they change their packaging now,but will make only $15 million if they do not change their packaging now. ​ The prior probabilities of the three scenarios are 0.3,0.5,and 0.2,respectively. ​ ​ -{Container Company Narrative} Set up the opportunity loss table.

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Maintenance Company For a maintenance company,a payoff table,the prior probabilities for three states of nature,and the likelihood probabilities are shown below: Payoff Table: Maintenance Company  For a maintenance company,a payoff table,the prior probabilities for three states of nature,and the likelihood probabilities are shown below:  Payoff Table:   Prior Probabilities: P(s<sub>1</sub>)= 0.4,P(s<sub>2</sub>)= 0.5,and P(s<sub>3</sub>)= 0.1. Likelihood Probabilities:   ​ ​ -{Maintenance Company Narrative} Use the prior and likelihood probabilities to calculate the posterior probabilities for the experimental outcome I<sub>2</sub>. Prior Probabilities: P(s1)= 0.4,P(s2)= 0.5,and P(s3)= 0.1. Likelihood Probabilities: Maintenance Company  For a maintenance company,a payoff table,the prior probabilities for three states of nature,and the likelihood probabilities are shown below:  Payoff Table:   Prior Probabilities: P(s<sub>1</sub>)= 0.4,P(s<sub>2</sub>)= 0.5,and P(s<sub>3</sub>)= 0.1. Likelihood Probabilities:   ​ ​ -{Maintenance Company Narrative} Use the prior and likelihood probabilities to calculate the posterior probabilities for the experimental outcome I<sub>2</sub>. ​ ​ -{Maintenance Company Narrative} Use the prior and likelihood probabilities to calculate the posterior probabilities for the experimental outcome I2.

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Car Audio Store For a car audio store,a payoff table,the prior probabilities for two states of nature,and the likelihood probabilities are shown below: Payoff Table: Car Audio Store  For a car audio store,a payoff table,the prior probabilities for two states of nature,and the likelihood probabilities are shown below: Payoff Table:     ​ ​ -{Car Audio Store Narrative} Calculate the expected value of sample information. Car Audio Store  For a car audio store,a payoff table,the prior probabilities for two states of nature,and the likelihood probabilities are shown below: Payoff Table:     ​ ​ -{Car Audio Store Narrative} Calculate the expected value of sample information. ​ ​ -{Car Audio Store Narrative} Calculate the expected value of sample information.

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