Exam 22: Decision Analysis
Exam 1: What Is Statistics46 Questions
Exam 2: Graphical Descriptive Techniques 194 Questions
Exam 3: Graphical Descriptive Techniques 2156 Questions
Exam 4: Numerical Descriptive Techniques275 Questions
Exam 5: Data Collection and Sampling84 Questions
Exam 6: Probability240 Questions
Exam 7: Random Variables and Discrete Probability Distributions283 Questions
Exam 8: Continuous Probability Distributions224 Questions
Exam 9: Sampling Distributions156 Questions
Exam 10: Introduction to Estimation154 Questions
Exam 11: Introduction to Hypothesis Testing189 Questions
Exam 12: Inference About a Population153 Questions
Exam 13: Inference About Comparing Two Populations170 Questions
Exam 14: Analysis of Variance157 Questions
Exam 15: Chi-Squared Tests179 Questions
Exam 16: Simple Linear Regression and Correlation304 Questions
Exam 17: Multiple Regression160 Questions
Exam 18: Model Building148 Questions
Exam 19: Nonparametric Statistics175 Questions
Exam 20: Time-Series Analytics and Forecasting225 Questions
Exam 21: Statistical Process Control140 Questions
Exam 22: Decision Analysis123 Questions
Exam 23: Conclusion47 Questions
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Power Company
A payoff table for a power company is shown below:
The following prior probabilities are assigned to the states of nature: P(s1)= 0.3,P(s2)= 0.7.
-{Power Company Narrative} What is the expected payoff with perfect information?
(Essay)
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Candy Store
A payoff table for a Candy store is shown below.
The following prior probabilities are assigned to the states of nature: P(s1)= 0.2,P(s2)= 0.6,and P(s3)= 0.2.
-{Candy Store Narrative} What is the expected value of perfect information?
(Essay)
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The difference between the expected monetary value with additional information (EMV')and the expected monetary value without additional information (EMV*)is called the expected value of ____________________ information and is denoted EVSI.
(Short Answer)
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Car Audio Store
For a car audio store,a payoff table,the prior probabilities for two states of nature,and the likelihood probabilities are shown below: Payoff Table:
-{Car Audio Store Narrative} What is the expected value of perfect information?
(Essay)
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Sporting Goods Store
A payoff table for a clothing store is shown below.
The following prior probabilities are assigned to the states of nature: P(s1)= 0.2,P(s2)= 0.6,and P(s3)= 0.2.
-{Sporting Goods Store Narrative} Set up the opportunity loss table.
(Essay)
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Graphic Design Business
A high school student,who started doing graphic designs as a hobby,is considering going into the graphic design business.The anticipated payoff table is:
The following prior probabilities are assigned to the states of nature: P(poor)= 0.4,P(fair)= 0.4,and P(super)= 0.2.
-{Graphic Design Business Narrative} What is the expected payoff with perfect information?
(Essay)
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Power Company
A payoff table for a power company is shown below:
The following prior probabilities are assigned to the states of nature: P(s1)= 0.3,P(s2)= 0.7.
-{Power Company Narrative} What is the expected value of perfect information?
(Essay)
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The expected value of perfect information (EVPI)equals the smallest ____________________.This is not a coincidence.
(Short Answer)
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Dishwasher Designs
Three different designs are being considered for a new dishwasher,and profits will depend on the combination of the dishwasher design and market condition.The following payoff table summarizes the decision situation,with amounts in millions of dollars.
Assume that the following probabilities are assigned to the three market conditions: P(s1)= 0.1,P(s2)= 0.6,and P(s3)= 0.3.
-{Dishwasher Designs Narrative} Convert the payoff table to an opportunity loss table.
(Essay)
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All entries of any opportunity loss table are negative values since they represent losses.
(True/False)
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A(n)____________________ probability is based on ideas,attitudes,or opinions that an investor may have.
(Short Answer)
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Custom Home Designs
Three different designs are being considered for new custom homes,and profits will depend on the combination of the custom home design and market condition.The following payoff table summarizes the decision situation,with amounts in millions of dollars.
Assume that the following probabilities are assigned to the three market conditions: P(s1)= 0.1,P(s2)= 0.6,and P(s3)= 0.3.
-{Custom Home Designs Narrative} Determine the expected payoff that would be realized if perfect information were available.
(Essay)
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The minimum expected opportunity loss is also equal to the:
(Multiple Choice)
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The expected value of perfect information (EVPI)equals the largest expected opportunity loss (EOL*).
(True/False)
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Container Company
A company must decide whether or not to change its packaging to a more environmentally safe material.The impact of the decision on profits depends on which of the following three possible scenarios develops in the future. Scenario 1: The media does not focus heavily on concerns about packaging and no new laws requiring changes in packaging are passed.Under this scenario,the company will make $35 million if they change their packaging now,but will make $75 million if they do not change their packaging now. Scenario 2: The media does focus heavily on concerns about packaging and no new laws requiring changes in packaging are passed.Under this scenario,the company will make $50 million if they change their packaging now,but will make $55 million if they do not change their packaging now. Scenario 3: The media does focus heavily on concerns about packaging and new laws requiring changes in packaging are passed.Under this scenario,the company will make $60 million if they change their packaging now,but will make only $15 million if they do not change their packaging now. The prior probabilities of the three scenarios are 0.3,0.5,and 0.2,respectively.
-{Container Company Narrative} Which decision has the minimum expected opportunity loss?
(Essay)
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What is meant by the expected monetary value (EMV)of a decision alternative?
(Essay)
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Food Market
The following table displays the payoffs (in thousands of dollars)for five different decision alternatives under three possible states of nature for a new food market:
The prior probabilities of the states of nature are: P(s1)= 0.2,P(s2)= 0.3,and P(s3)= 0.5.
-{Food Market Narrative} Calculate the expected opportunity loss for each act with present information.What decision should be made using the EOL criterion?
(Essay)
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Container Company
A company must decide whether or not to change its packaging to a more environmentally safe material.The impact of the decision on profits depends on which of the following three possible scenarios develops in the future. Scenario 1: The media does not focus heavily on concerns about packaging and no new laws requiring changes in packaging are passed.Under this scenario,the company will make $35 million if they change their packaging now,but will make $75 million if they do not change their packaging now. Scenario 2: The media does focus heavily on concerns about packaging and no new laws requiring changes in packaging are passed.Under this scenario,the company will make $50 million if they change their packaging now,but will make $55 million if they do not change their packaging now. Scenario 3: The media does focus heavily on concerns about packaging and new laws requiring changes in packaging are passed.Under this scenario,the company will make $60 million if they change their packaging now,but will make only $15 million if they do not change their packaging now. The prior probabilities of the three scenarios are 0.3,0.5,and 0.2,respectively.
-{Container Company Narrative} Set up the opportunity loss table.
(Essay)
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Maintenance Company
For a maintenance company,a payoff table,the prior probabilities for three states of nature,and the likelihood probabilities are shown below:
Payoff Table:
Prior Probabilities: P(s1)= 0.4,P(s2)= 0.5,and P(s3)= 0.1. Likelihood Probabilities:
-{Maintenance Company Narrative} Use the prior and likelihood probabilities to calculate the posterior probabilities for the experimental outcome I2.
(Essay)
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Car Audio Store
For a car audio store,a payoff table,the prior probabilities for two states of nature,and the likelihood probabilities are shown below: Payoff Table:
-{Car Audio Store Narrative} Calculate the expected value of sample information.
(Essay)
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