Exam 17: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

If data for a time series analysis are collected on an annual basis only, which of the following components may be ignored?

For the following time series data, using the naïve method (the most recent value as the forecast for the next period), answer the following questions. ​ a Compute mean absolute error (MAE). b. Compute mean squared error (MSE). c. What is the forecast for period 7?

A component of the time series model that results in the multi-period above-trend and below-trend behavior of a time series is a(n) _____ component.

Gradual shifting or movement of a time series to relatively higher or lower values over a longer period of time is called​

What is the forecast for July based on a three-month weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 6, 4, and 1(largest weight is for most recent data)? Show all the forecasts for April through June along with the answer.

All of the following are true about a stationary time series except​

The quarterly sales of a company (in millions of dollars) over the past three years are given in the following table. ​ ​ a. Compute the four seasonal indexes. b. The trend for these data is Trend = 185.86 + 5.25t (t represents time, where t = 1 for Quarter 1 of 2013 and t = 12 for Quarter 4 of 2015). Forecast sales for the first quarter of 2016 using the trend only. c. Forecast sales for the first quarter of 2016 using the trend and seasonal indexes and write your answer below.

In the linear trend equation, T_t = b₀ + b₁t, t represents the

Using a naive forecasting method, the forecast for next month's sales volume equals

All of the following are true about time series methods except

If the estimate of the trend component is 160.2, the estimate of the seasonal component is 94%, the estimate of the cyclical component is 105%, and the estimate of the irregular component is 98%, then the multiplicative model will produce a forecast of

Below you are given the first two values of a time series. You are also given the first two values of the exponential smoothing forecast. ​ If the smoothing constant equals .2, then the exponential smoothing forecast for time period 3 is

The forecasting method that is appropriate when the time series has no significant trend, cyclical, or seasonal effects is​

Using exponential smoothing, the demand forecast for time period 10 equals the demand forecast for time period 9 plus

Actual sales for January through April are shown below. ​ Use exponential smoothing with α = .3 to calculate smoothed values and forecast sales for May from the above data. Assume the forecast for the initial period (January) is 18. Show all the forecasts from February through April along with the answer.

The component that reflects unexplained variability in the time series is called a(n) _____ component.

A method of smoothing a time series that can be used to identify the combined trend/cyclical component is

Which of the following exponential smoothing constant values puts the same weight on the most recent time series value as does a four-period moving average?

What is the forecast for July based on a three-month weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 5, 3, and 2 (largest weight is for most recent data)? Show all the forecasts for April through June along with the answer.

All of the following are true about a cyclical pattern except​ it is