Question 1

The trend component is easy to identify using the method of

Accepted Answer

A)  moving averages. 
B)  exponential smoothing. 
C)  regression analysis. 
D)  naïve forecasting. 
A)  moving averages. 
B)  exponential smoothing. 
C)  regression analysis. 
D)  naïve forecasting. C

Question 2

The time series component that reflects gradual variability over a long time period is called a(n) _____ component.

Accepted Answer

A)  trend 
B)  seasonal 
C)  cyclical 
D)  irregular 
A)  trend 
B)  seasonal 
C)  cyclical 
D)  irregular A

Question 3

The model that assumes that the actual time series value is the product of its components is the _____ time series model.

Accepted Answer

A)  forecast 
B)  multiplicative 
C)  additive 
D)  horizontal 
A)  forecast 
B)  multiplicative 
C)  additive 
D)  horizontal B

Question 4

The time series pattern showing an alternating sequence of points below and above the trend line lasting more than one year is the _____ pattern.

Accepted Answer

A)  stationary trend 
B)  seasonal 
C)  seasonal-irregular 
D)  cyclical 
A)  stationary trend 
B)  seasonal 
C)  seasonal-irregular 
D)  cyclical

Question 5

Below you are given the first four values of a time series.   ​ Using a four-period moving average, the forecasted value for period 5 is

Accepted Answer

A)  20.6. 
B)  18. 
C)  20. 
D)  10. 
A)  20.6. 
B)  18. 
C)  20. 
D)  10.

Question 6

A parameter of the exponential smoothing model that provides the weight given to the most recent time series value in the calculation of the forecast value is known as the

Accepted Answer

A)  mean squared error. 
B)  mean absolute error. 
C)  smoothing constant. 
D)  exponential estimate. 
A)  mean squared error. 
B)  mean absolute error. 
C)  smoothing constant. 
D)  exponential estimate.

Question 7

A seasonal pattern

Accepted Answer

A)  exists if the time series plot exhibits a repeating pattern over successive periods, often one-year intervals. 
B)  can take more than a year to repeat itself. 
C)  is a multiyear run of observations above and below the trend line. 
D)  reflects a shift in the time series over time. 
A)  exists if the time series plot exhibits a repeating pattern over successive periods, often one-year intervals. 
B)  can take more than a year to repeat itself. 
C)  is a multiyear run of observations above and below the trend line. 
D)  reflects a shift in the time series over time.

Question 8

What is the forecast for July based on a three-month weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 5, 4, and 3 (largest weight is for most recent data)? Show all the forecasts for April through June along with the answer.
​

Accepted Answer

The answer of What is the forecast for July based...

Question 9

The quarterly sales of a company (in millions of dollars) over the past three years are given in the following table.   ​ 
a.
Compute the four seasonal indexes.
b.
The trend for these data is Trend = 20.82 + .336t (t represents time, where t = 1 for Quarter 1 of 2013 and t = 12 for Quarter 4 of 2015). Forecast sales for the first quarter of 2016 using the trend only.
c.
Forecast sales for the first quarter of 2016 using the trend and seasonal indexes and write your answer below.

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& ​
b.
$25.

Question 10

The objective of smoothing methods is to smooth out​

Accepted Answer

A)  ​long range forecasts. 
B)  ​wide seasonal variations. 
C)  ​significant trend effects. 
D)  ​random fluctuations. 
A)  ​long range forecasts. 
B)  ​wide seasonal variations. 
C)  ​significant trend effects. 
D)  ​random fluctuations.

Question 11

In the linear trend equation, Tt = b0 + b1t, b1 represents the

Accepted Answer

A)  trend value in period t. 
B)  intercept of the trend line. 
C)  slope of the trend line. 
D)  point in time. 
A)  trend value in period t. 
B)  intercept of the trend line. 
C)  slope of the trend line. 
D)  point in time.

Question 12

Below you are given the first five values of a quarterly time series. The multiplicative model is appropriate and a four-quarter moving average will be used.   ​ An estimate of the combined trend-cycle component (T2Ct) for Quarter 3 of Year 1 (used for estimating the de-trended values), when a four-quarter moving average is used, is

Accepted Answer

A)  24. 
B)  25. 
C)  26. 
D)  28. 
A)  24. 
B)  25. 
C)  26. 
D)  28.

Question 13

Below you are given the first five values of a quarterly time series. The multiplicative model is appropriate and a four-quarter moving average will be used.   ​ An estimate of the seasonal-irregular component for Quarter 3 of Year 1 is

Accepted Answer

A)  .64. 
B)  1.5625. 
C)  5.333. 
D)  30. 
A)  .64. 
B)  1.5625. 
C)  5.333. 
D)  30.

Question 14

Actual sales for January through April are shown below.   ​
Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 to calculate smoothed averages and forecast sales for May from the above data. Assume the forecast for the initial period (January) is 18. Show all the forecasts along with the answer.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Actual sales for January through April are...

Question 15

All of the following are true about qualitative forecasting methods except they

Accepted Answer

A)  generally involve the use of expert judgment to develop forecasts. 
B)  assume the pattern of the past will continue into the future. 
C)  are appropriate when past data on the variable being forecast are not applicable. 
D)  are appropriate when past data on the variable being forecast are not available. 
A)  generally involve the use of expert judgment to develop forecasts. 
B)  assume the pattern of the past will continue into the future. 
C)  are appropriate when past data on the variable being forecast are not applicable. 
D)  are appropriate when past data on the variable being forecast are not available.

Question 16

The time series component which reflects gradual shifts or movements to relatively higher or lower values over a longer period of time is a(n) _____ component.

Accepted Answer

A)  trend 
B)  seasonal 
C)  cyclical 
D)  irregular 
A)  trend 
B)  seasonal 
C)  cyclical 
D)  irregular

Question 17

In situations where you need to compare forecasting methods for different time periods, the most appropriate accuracy measure is mean

Accepted Answer

A)  error. 
B)  absolute error. 
C)  squared error. 
D)  absolute percentage error. 
A)  error. 
B)  absolute error. 
C)  squared error. 
D)  absolute percentage error.

Question 18

A method that uses a weighted average of past values for arriving at smoothed time series values is known as

Accepted Answer

A)  a smoothing average. 
B)  a moving average. 
C)  additive approach. 
D)  exponential smoothing. 
A)  a smoothing average. 
B)  a moving average. 
C)  additive approach. 
D)  exponential smoothing.

Question 19

The following linear trend expression was estimated using a time series with 17 time periods. ​
Tt = 129.5 + 4.8t
​
The trend projection for time period 18 is

Accepted Answer

A)  68.4. 
B)  211.1. 
C)  215.9. 
D)  134.3. 
A)  68.4. 
B)  211.1. 
C)  215.9. 
D)  134.3.

Question 20

One measure of the accuracy of a forecasting model is

Accepted Answer

A)  the smoothing constant. 
B)  a deseasonalized time series. 
C)  the mean absolute error. 
D)  a projected index value. 
A)  the smoothing constant. 
B)  a deseasonalized time series. 
C)  the mean absolute error. 
D)  a projected index value.

The trend component is easy to identify using the method of

The time series component that reflects gradual variability over a long time period is called a(n) _____ component.

The model that assumes that the actual time series value is the product of its components is the _____ time series model.

The time series pattern showing an alternating sequence of points below and above the trend line lasting more than one year is the _____ pattern.

Below you are given the first four values of a time series. Using a four-period moving average, the forecasted value for period 5 is

A parameter of the exponential smoothing model that provides the weight given to the most recent time series value in the calculation of the forecast value is known as the

A seasonal pattern

What is the forecast for July based on a three-month weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 5, 4, and 3 (largest weight is for most recent data)? Show all the forecasts for April through June along with the answer.

The objective of smoothing methods is to smooth out

In the linear trend equation, T_t = b₀ + b₁t, b₁ represents the

Below you are given the first five values of a quarterly time series. The multiplicative model is appropriate and a four-quarter moving average will be used. An estimate of the seasonal-irregular component for Quarter 3 of Year 1 is

Actual sales for January through April are shown below. Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 to calculate smoothed averages and forecast sales for May from the above data. Assume the forecast for the initial period (January) is 18. Show all the forecasts along with the answer.

All of the following are true about qualitative forecasting methods except they

The time series component which reflects gradual shifts or movements to relatively higher or lower values over a longer period of time is a(n) _____ component.

In situations where you need to compare forecasting methods for different time periods, the most appropriate accuracy measure is mean

A method that uses a weighted average of past values for arriving at smoothed time series values is known as

The following linear trend expression was estimated using a time series with 17 time periods. T_t = 129.5 + 4.8t The trend projection for time period 18 is

One measure of the accuracy of a forecasting model is

Data and Statistics

Descriptive Statistics: Tabular and Graphical Displays

Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Measures

Introduction to Probability

Discrete Probability Distributions

Continuous Probability Distributions

Sampling and Sampling Distributions

Interval Estimation

Hypothesis Tests

Inference About Means and Proportions With Two Populations

Inferences About Population Variances

Comparing Multiple Proportions, Tests of Independence and Goodness of Fit

Experimental Design and Analysis of Variance

Simple Linear Regression

Multiple Regression

Regression Analysis: Model Building

Nonparametric Methods

Decision Analysis

Index Numbers

Statistical Methods for Quality Control

Sample Survey

Filters

Exam 17: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

The trend component is easy to identify using the method of

The time series component that reflects gradual variability over a long time period is called a(n) _____ component.

The model that assumes that the actual time series value is the product of its components is the _____ time series model.

The time series pattern showing an alternating sequence of points below and above the trend line lasting more than one year is the _____ pattern.

Below you are given the first four values of a time series. ​ Using a four-period moving average, the forecasted value for period 5 is

A parameter of the exponential smoothing model that provides the weight given to the most recent time series value in the calculation of the forecast value is known as the

A seasonal pattern

What is the forecast for July based on a three-month weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 5, 4, and 3 (largest weight is for most recent data)? Show all the forecasts for April through June along with the answer. ​

The objective of smoothing methods is to smooth out​

In the linear trend equation, Tt = b0 + b1t, b1 represents the

Below you are given the first five values of a quarterly time series. The multiplicative model is appropriate and a four-quarter moving average will be used. ​ An estimate of the seasonal-irregular component for Quarter 3 of Year 1 is

Actual sales for January through April are shown below. ​ Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 to calculate smoothed averages and forecast sales for May from the above data. Assume the forecast for the initial period (January) is 18. Show all the forecasts along with the answer.

All of the following are true about qualitative forecasting methods except they

The time series component which reflects gradual shifts or movements to relatively higher or lower values over a longer period of time is a(n) _____ component.

In situations where you need to compare forecasting methods for different time periods, the most appropriate accuracy measure is mean

A method that uses a weighted average of past values for arriving at smoothed time series values is known as

The following linear trend expression was estimated using a time series with 17 time periods. ​ Tt = 129.5 + 4.8t ​ The trend projection for time period 18 is

One measure of the accuracy of a forecasting model is

Data and Statistics

Descriptive Statistics: Tabular and Graphical Displays

Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Measures

Introduction to Probability

Discrete Probability Distributions

Continuous Probability Distributions

Sampling and Sampling Distributions

Interval Estimation

Hypothesis Tests

Inference About Means and Proportions With Two Populations

Inferences About Population Variances

Comparing Multiple Proportions, Tests of Independence and Goodness of Fit

Experimental Design and Analysis of Variance

Simple Linear Regression

Multiple Regression

Regression Analysis: Model Building

Nonparametric Methods

Decision Analysis

Index Numbers

Statistical Methods for Quality Control

Sample Survey

Filters

Below you are given the first four values of a time series. Using a four-period moving average, the forecasted value for period 5 is

What is the forecast for July based on a three-month weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 5, 4, and 3 (largest weight is for most recent data)? Show all the forecasts for April through June along with the answer.

The objective of smoothing methods is to smooth out

In the linear trend equation, T_t = b₀ + b₁t, b₁ represents the

Below you are given the first five values of a quarterly time series. The multiplicative model is appropriate and a four-quarter moving average will be used. An estimate of the seasonal-irregular component for Quarter 3 of Year 1 is

Actual sales for January through April are shown below. Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 to calculate smoothed averages and forecast sales for May from the above data. Assume the forecast for the initial period (January) is 18. Show all the forecasts along with the answer.

The following linear trend expression was estimated using a time series with 17 time periods. T_t = 129.5 + 4.8t The trend projection for time period 18 is