Exam 22: Real Options

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Which of the following is NOT a real option?

(Multiple Choice)
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Use the following information to answer the question(s)below. Rearden Metal can invest in a risk-free technology that requires an up-front investment of $1 million.Rearden's managers are hesitant to invest because of uncertainty over future interest rates.Suppose that all interest rates will be either 8% or 4% in one year and remain there forever.The risk-neutral probability that interest rates will drop to 4% is 40%.The one-year risk-free interest rate is 5% and today's rate on a risk-free perpetual bond is 6%.The rate on an equivalent perpetual bond that is repayable at any time (the callable annuity rate)is 7.65%. -Assuming that this project will provide Rearden with perpetual annual cash flows of $80,000,Rearden should:

(Multiple Choice)
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Use the following information to answer the question(s)below. Rearden Metal can invest in a risk-free technology that requires an up-front investment of $1 million.Rearden's managers are hesitant to invest because of uncertainty over future interest rates.Suppose that all interest rates will be either 8% or 4% in one year and remain there forever.The risk-neutral probability that interest rates will drop to 4% is 40%.The one-year risk-free interest rate is 5% and today's rate on a risk-free perpetual bond is 6%.The rate on an equivalent perpetual bond that is repayable at any time (the callable annuity rate)is 7.65%. -Assuming that this project will provide Rearden with perpetual annual cash flows of $80,000,the NPV of investing in the project today using the hurdle rate is closest to:

(Multiple Choice)
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Use the information for the question(s)below. Kinston Industries has come up with a new mountain bike prototype and is ready to go ahead with pilot production and test marketing.The pilot production and test marketing phase will last for one year and cost $500,000.Your management team believes that there is a 50% chance that the test marketing will be successful and that there will be sufficient demand for the new mountain bike.If the test-marketing phase is successful,then Kinston Industries will invest $3 million in year one to build a plant that will generate expected annual after-tax cash flows of $400,000 in perpetuity beginning in year two.If the test marketing is not successful,Kinston can still go ahead and build the new plant,but the expected annual after-tax cash flows would be only $200,000 in perpetuity beginning in year two.Kinston has the option to stop the project at any time and sell the prototype mountain bike to an overseas competitor for $300,000.Kinston's cost of capital is 10%. -Assume that Kinston has the ability to ignore the pilot production and test marketing and to go ahead and build their manufacturing plant immediately.Further assume that the probability of high or low demand is still 50%.Draw a decision tree that details Kinston Industries Mountain Bike project if Kinston goes ahead and builds the plant immediately.

(Essay)
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Rylan Inc is considering a project that has an initial cost of $2 million.It is expected to generate cash flows for the firm of $500,000 per year for 6 years.Assuming a discount rate of 7%,what is the equivalent annual benefit?

(Multiple Choice)
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Mutually dependent investments occur when:

(Multiple Choice)
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The rate on a risk-free annuity that can be called at any time is known as the:

(Multiple Choice)
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Which of the following statements is FALSE?

(Multiple Choice)
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Use the following information to answer the question(s)below. Rearden Metal can invest in a risk-free technology that requires an up-front investment of $1 million.Rearden's managers are hesitant to invest because of uncertainty over future interest rates.Suppose that all interest rates will be either 8% or 4% in one year and remain there forever.The risk-neutral probability that interest rates will drop to 4% is 40%.The one-year risk-free interest rate is 5% and today's rate on a risk-free perpetual bond is 6%.The rate on an equivalent perpetual bond that is repayable at any time (the callable annuity rate)is 7.65%. -Assuming that this project will provide Rearden with perpetual annual cash flows of $65,000,and using the hurdle rate,Rearden should:

(Multiple Choice)
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Use the information for the question(s)below. Kinston Industries has come up with a new mountain bike prototype and is ready to go ahead with pilot production and test marketing.The pilot production and test marketing phase will last for one year and cost $500,000.Your management team believes that there is a 50% chance that the test marketing will be successful and that there will be sufficient demand for the new mountain bike.If the test-marketing phase is successful,then Kinston Industries will invest $3 million in year one to build a plant that will generate expected annual after-tax cash flows of $400,000 in perpetuity beginning in year two.If the test marketing is not successful,Kinston can still go ahead and build the new plant,but the expected annual after-tax cash flows would be only $200,000 in perpetuity beginning in year two.Kinston has the option to stop the project at any time and sell the prototype mountain bike to an overseas competitor for $300,000.Kinston's cost of capital is 10%. -Assuming that Kinston does not have the ability to sell the prototype in year one for $300,000,draw a decision tree detailing the Kinston Industries Mountain Bike Project.

(Essay)
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Luther Industries is considering launching a new toy just in time for the Christmas season.They estimate that if Luther launches the new toy this year it will have an NPV of $25 million.Luther has the option to wait one year until the next Christmas season to launch the toy,however,the demand next year will depend upon what new toys Luther's competitors introduce and therefore greater uncertainty about next year's demand.Launching the new toy today will involve a total capital expenditure of $100 million.If the risk-free rate is 5%,N(d1)is .62 and N(d2)is .65,then what is the value of the option to wait until next year to launch the new toy?

(Essay)
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Which of the following is an example of a way in which companies can create value by exploiting real options?

(Multiple Choice)
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Use the following information to answer the question(s)below. Rearden Metal can invest in a risk-free technology that requires an up-front investment of $1 million.Rearden's managers are hesitant to invest because of uncertainty over future interest rates.Suppose that all interest rates will be either 8% or 4% in one year and remain there forever.The risk-neutral probability that interest rates will drop to 4% is 40%.The one-year risk-free interest rate is 5% and today's rate on a risk-free perpetual bond is 6%.The rate on an equivalent perpetual bond that is repayable at any time (the callable annuity rate)is 7.65%. -Assuming that this project will provide Rearden with perpetual annual cash flows of $55,000,the NPV of investing in the project next year is closest to:

(Multiple Choice)
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The two different types of node on a decision tree are:

(Multiple Choice)
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Use the following information to answer the question(s)below. Rearden Metal can invest in a risk-free technology that requires an up-front investment of $1 million.Rearden's managers are hesitant to invest because of uncertainty over future interest rates.Suppose that all interest rates will be either 8% or 4% in one year and remain there forever.The risk-neutral probability that interest rates will drop to 4% is 40%.The one-year risk-free interest rate is 5% and today's rate on a risk-free perpetual bond is 6%.The rate on an equivalent perpetual bond that is repayable at any time (the callable annuity rate)is 7.65%. -Assuming that this project will provide Rearden with perpetual annual cash flows of $55,000,Rearden should:

(Multiple Choice)
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Which of the following statements is FALSE?

(Multiple Choice)
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Use the information for the question(s)below. You own a small manufacturing plant that currently generates revenues of $2 million per year.Next year,based upon a decision on a long-term government contract,your revenues will either increase by 20% or decrease by 25%,with equal probability,and stay at that level as long as you operate the plant.Other costs run $1.6 million per year.You can sell the plant at any time to a large conglomerate for $5 million and your cost of capital is 10%. -Assuming you are able to sell the plant,draw a decision tree detailing this problem.

(Essay)
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The major principles to remember when considering real options include all of the following EXCEPT:

(Multiple Choice)
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Use the table for the question(s)below. Consider the following mutually exclusive projects: Use the table for the question(s)below. Consider the following mutually exclusive projects:   -The NPV of project A is closest to: -The NPV of project A is closest to:

(Multiple Choice)
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Use the information for the question(s)below. You own a small manufacturing plant that currently generates revenues of $2 million per year.Next year,based upon a decision on a long-term government contract,your revenues will either increase by 20% or decrease by 25%,with equal probability,and stay at that level as long as you operate the plant.Other costs run $1.6 million per year.You can sell the plant at any time to a large conglomerate for $5 million and your cost of capital is 10%. -Assume that you are not able to sell the plant,but you are able to shut down the plant at no cost at any time.The value of the option to abandon production will be closest to:

(Multiple Choice)
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