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Exam 16: Time-Series Forecasting

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True or False: Given a data set with 15 yearly observations,a 3-year moving average will have fewer observations than a 5-year moving average.

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Question 161

TABLE 16-13 Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. TABLE 16-13 Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1<sup>st</sup> month is 0: Linear trend model: Quadratic trend model: Exponential trend model: First-order autoregressive: Second-order autoregressive: Third-order autoregressive: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Table 16-13,what is the exponentially smoothed value for the second month using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.25? The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1st month is 0: Linear trend model: TABLE 16-13 Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1<sup>st</sup> month is 0: Linear trend model: Quadratic trend model: Exponential trend model: First-order autoregressive: Second-order autoregressive: Third-order autoregressive: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Table 16-13,what is the exponentially smoothed value for the second month using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.25? Quadratic trend model: TABLE 16-13 Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1<sup>st</sup> month is 0: Linear trend model: Quadratic trend model: Exponential trend model: First-order autoregressive: Second-order autoregressive: Third-order autoregressive: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Table 16-13,what is the exponentially smoothed value for the second month using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.25? Exponential trend model: TABLE 16-13 Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1<sup>st</sup> month is 0: Linear trend model: Quadratic trend model: Exponential trend model: First-order autoregressive: Second-order autoregressive: Third-order autoregressive: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Table 16-13,what is the exponentially smoothed value for the second month using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.25? First-order autoregressive: TABLE 16-13 Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1<sup>st</sup> month is 0: Linear trend model: Quadratic trend model: Exponential trend model: First-order autoregressive: Second-order autoregressive: Third-order autoregressive: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Table 16-13,what is the exponentially smoothed value for the second month using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.25? Second-order autoregressive: TABLE 16-13 Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1<sup>st</sup> month is 0: Linear trend model: Quadratic trend model: Exponential trend model: First-order autoregressive: Second-order autoregressive: Third-order autoregressive: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Table 16-13,what is the exponentially smoothed value for the second month using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.25? Third-order autoregressive: TABLE 16-13 Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1<sup>st</sup> month is 0: Linear trend model: Quadratic trend model: Exponential trend model: First-order autoregressive: Second-order autoregressive: Third-order autoregressive: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Table 16-13,what is the exponentially smoothed value for the second month using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.25? Below is the residual plot of the various models: TABLE 16-13 Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1<sup>st</sup> month is 0: Linear trend model: Quadratic trend model: Exponential trend model: First-order autoregressive: Second-order autoregressive: Third-order autoregressive: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Table 16-13,what is the exponentially smoothed value for the second month using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.25? -Referring to Table 16-13,what is the exponentially smoothed value for the second month using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.25?

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Question 162

TABLE 16-10 Business closures in Laramie,Wyoming from 2007 to 2012 were: TABLE 16-10 Business closures in Laramie,Wyoming from 2007 to 2012 were: Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models,resulting in the following partial outputs: SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2nd Order Model Coefficients Intercept -5.77 X Variable 1 0.80 X Variable 2 1.14 SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1st Order Model Coefficients Intercept -4.16 X Variable 1 1.59 -Referring to Table 16-10,the fitted values for the second-order autoregressive model are ________,________,________,and ________. Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models,resulting in the following partial outputs: SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2nd Order Model Coefficients Intercept -5.77 X Variable 1 0.80 X Variable 2 1.14 SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1st Order Model Coefficients Intercept -4.16 X Variable 1 1.59 -Referring to Table 16-10,the fitted values for the second-order autoregressive model are ________,________,________,and ________.

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Question 163

When using the exponentially weighted moving average for purposes of forecasting rather than smoothing,

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Question 164

TABLE 16-13 Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. TABLE 16-13 Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1<sup>st</sup> month is 0: Linear trend model: Quadratic trend model: Exponential trend model: First-order autoregressive: Second-order autoregressive: Third-order autoregressive: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Table 16-13,what is the value of the t test statistic for testing the appropriateness of the third-order autoregressive model? The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1st month is 0: Linear trend model: TABLE 16-13 Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1<sup>st</sup> month is 0: Linear trend model: Quadratic trend model: Exponential trend model: First-order autoregressive: Second-order autoregressive: Third-order autoregressive: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Table 16-13,what is the value of the t test statistic for testing the appropriateness of the third-order autoregressive model? Quadratic trend model: TABLE 16-13 Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1<sup>st</sup> month is 0: Linear trend model: Quadratic trend model: Exponential trend model: First-order autoregressive: Second-order autoregressive: Third-order autoregressive: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Table 16-13,what is the value of the t test statistic for testing the appropriateness of the third-order autoregressive model? Exponential trend model: TABLE 16-13 Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1<sup>st</sup> month is 0: Linear trend model: Quadratic trend model: Exponential trend model: First-order autoregressive: Second-order autoregressive: Third-order autoregressive: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Table 16-13,what is the value of the t test statistic for testing the appropriateness of the third-order autoregressive model? First-order autoregressive: TABLE 16-13 Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1<sup>st</sup> month is 0: Linear trend model: Quadratic trend model: Exponential trend model: First-order autoregressive: Second-order autoregressive: Third-order autoregressive: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Table 16-13,what is the value of the t test statistic for testing the appropriateness of the third-order autoregressive model? Second-order autoregressive: TABLE 16-13 Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1<sup>st</sup> month is 0: Linear trend model: Quadratic trend model: Exponential trend model: First-order autoregressive: Second-order autoregressive: Third-order autoregressive: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Table 16-13,what is the value of the t test statistic for testing the appropriateness of the third-order autoregressive model? Third-order autoregressive: TABLE 16-13 Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1<sup>st</sup> month is 0: Linear trend model: Quadratic trend model: Exponential trend model: First-order autoregressive: Second-order autoregressive: Third-order autoregressive: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Table 16-13,what is the value of the t test statistic for testing the appropriateness of the third-order autoregressive model? Below is the residual plot of the various models: TABLE 16-13 Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1<sup>st</sup> month is 0: Linear trend model: Quadratic trend model: Exponential trend model: First-order autoregressive: Second-order autoregressive: Third-order autoregressive: Below is the residual plot of the various models: -Referring to Table 16-13,what is the value of the t test statistic for testing the appropriateness of the third-order autoregressive model? -Referring to Table 16-13,what is the value of the t test statistic for testing the appropriateness of the third-order autoregressive model?

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