Exam 5: Demand Forecasting

Your company is conducting forecasting that revolves around the current recession and expansion of the U.S.economy.This type of forecasting can be referred to as what component of a time series?

One of the goals of an effective CPFR system is to minimize the negative impacts of the bullwhip effect on supply chains.

If you were calculating a forecast using an exponential smoothing model,a calculation using α = 0.2 would be putting a greater emphasis on recent data,while a calculation using α = 0.8 would be putting a greater emphasis on past data.Thus a lower α is more responsive to changes in demand in the most recent periods.

The exponential smoothing forecast has the same value as the naïve forecast when α in the exponential smoothing model is equal to:

If you felt that recent demand trends were more significant,and thus should be emphasized more in formulating a forecast,then in forecasting demand for the upcoming demand period,you would probably favor using a simple moving average over the conventional weighted moving average.

One common Cause-and-Effect Model used is:

The goal of a good forecasting technique is to achieve 98.7% accuracy between the forecast and actual demand.

Using Data Set E1,what would be the forecast for period 6 using the exponential smoothing method? Assume the forecast for period 5 is 14000.Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.4 (Choose the closest answer. )

Examples of forecasting accuracy measures are Mean Absolute Deviation,Mean Absolute Percentage Error,and Mean Square Error.

Qualitative methods of forecasting include which of the following:

The following are all common qualitative forecasting models EXCEPT:

The equation for a simple linear regression that saw sales averaging $225,000 over the last ten periods,and advertising budgets averaging $3,000 over the last 10 periods is: Y = 3250 + 120x This indicates that a $1 increase in advertising will increase sales by:

According to textbook,the top three challenges for CPFR implementation include all of the following except:

Cause-and-Effect Models can have multiple independent variables.

A forecasting method has produced the following data over the past 5 months shown in Data Set E2.What is the mean absolute deviation (accurate to 2 decimals)?

Using Data Set E1,what would be the forecast for period 6 using a five period weighted moving average? The weights for each period are 0.05,0.10,0.20,0.30,and 0.35 from the oldest period to the most recent period,respectively.(Choose the closest answer. )

If a tracking signal is positive,which one of the following is true?

Based on the information in Data Set E2,what is the mean squared error (accurate to 2 decimals)?

According to the textbook,which of the following is NOT a way to closely match supply and demand?

Inaccurate forecasts can result in negative outcomes like: