Exam 15: Time-Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

The ratios of "actuals to moving averages" (seasonal indexes)for a time series are presented in the following table as percentages: The final (completely adjusted)estimate of the seasonal index for Q₁ is ___.

Jim Royo,manager of Billings Building Supply (BBS),wants to develop a model to forecast BBS's monthly sales (in $1,000's).He selects the dollar value of residential building permits (in $10,000)as the predictor variable.An analysis of the data yielded the following tables: Using $\alpha$ = 0.05 the critical value of the Durbin-Watson statistic,d_L, is ___.

Analysis of data for an autoregressive forecasting model produced the following tables: The actual values of this time series,y,were 228,54,and 191 for May,June,and July,respectively.The forecast value predicted by the model for July is ___.

Naïve forecasting models have no useful applications because they do not take into account data trend,cyclical effects or seasonality.

Test for autocorrelation using the Durbin-Watson test,overcoming it by adding independent variables and transforming variables and taking advantage of it with autoregression.

Using a three-month moving average (with weights of 5,3,and 1 for the most current value,next most current value and oldest value,respectively),the forecast value for October made at the end of September in the following time series would be ___.

Using 2000 as the base year,the 1990 value of the Paasche' Price Index is ___.(Quantities are averages for the student body. )

Analysis of data for an autoregressive forecasting model produced the following tables: The results indicate that ___.

A time series with forecast values and error terms is presented in the following table.The mean squared error (MSE)for this forecast is ___.

Using a three-month moving average (with weights of 6,3,and 1 for the most current value,next most current value and oldest value,respectively),the forecast value for October made at the end of September in the following time series would be___.

Analysis of data for an autoregressive forecasting model produced the following tables: The forecasting model is ___.

Which of the following is not a component of time series data?

Index numbers facilitate comparison of ___.

Using a three-month moving average (with weights of 6,3,and 1 for the most current value,next most current value and oldest value,respectively),the forecast value for November in the following time series is ___.

Jim Royo,manager of Billings Building Supply (BBS),wants to develop a model to forecast BBS's monthly sales (in $1,000's).He selects the dollar value of residential building permits (in $10,000)as the predictor variable.An analysis of the data yielded the following tables: Using $\alpha$ = 0.05 the critical value of the Durbin-Watson statistic,d_U, is ___.

A time series with forecast values and error terms is presented in the following table.The mean error (ME)for this forecast is ___.

Using 2006 as the base year,the 2008 value of a simple price index for the following price data is ___.