Exam 4: Probability

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Given P (A)= 0.40,P (B)= 0.50,P (A ∩\cap 0 B)= 0.15.Find P (A|B).

(Multiple Choice)
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Deconstruct the elements of probability by defining experiments,sample spaces,and events;classifying events as mutually exclusive,collectively exhaustive,complementary,or independent;and counting possibilities.

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Inferring the value of a population parameter from the statistic on a random sample drawn from the population is an inferential process under uncertainty.

(True/False)
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Differentiate among three methods of assigning probabilities: the classical method,relative frequency of occurrence,and subjective probability.

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Let A be the event that a student is enrolled in an accounting course,and let S be the event that a student is enrolled in a statistics course.It is known that 30% of all students are enrolled in an accounting course and 40% of all students are enrolled in statistics.Included in these numbers are 15% who are enrolled in both statistics and accounting.Find P(S).

(Multiple Choice)
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Max Sandlin is exploring the characteristics of stock market investors.He found that sixty percent of all investors have a net worth exceeding $1,000,000;20% of all investors use an online brokerage;and 10% of all investors a have net worth exceeding $1,000,000 and use an online brokerage.An investor is selected randomly,and E is the event "net worth exceeds $1,000,000," and O is the event "uses an online brokerage." P(O|E)= ___.

(Multiple Choice)
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Meagan Dubean manages a portfolio of 200 common stocks.Her staff classified the portfolio stocks by 'industry sector' and 'investment objective.' Meagan Dubean manages a portfolio of 200 common stocks.Her staff classified the portfolio stocks by 'industry sector' and 'investment objective.'   If a stock is selected randomly from Meagan's portfolio,P (Airlines|Income)= ___. If a stock is selected randomly from Meagan's portfolio,P (Airlines|Income)= ___.

(Multiple Choice)
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Assigning probabilities to uncertain events based on one's beliefs or intuitions is called classical method.

(True/False)
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Calculate probabilities using the general law of addition,along with a joint probability table,the complement of a union,or the special law of addition if necessary.

(Essay)
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Meagan Dubean manages a portfolio of 200 common stocks.Her staff classified the portfolio stocks by 'industry sector' and 'investment objective.'  Meagan Dubean manages a portfolio of 200 common stocks.Her staff classified the portfolio stocks by 'industry sector' and 'investment objective.'    If a stock is selected randomly from Meagan's portfolio,P (Healthcare  \cup  Electronics)= ___. If a stock is selected randomly from Meagan's portfolio,P (Healthcare ∪\cup Electronics)= ___.

(Multiple Choice)
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A market research firm conducts studies regarding the success of new products.The company is not always perfect in predicting the success.Suppose that there is a 50% chance that any new product would be successful (and a 50% chance that it would fail).In the past,for all new products that ultimately were successful,80% were predicted to be successful (and the other 20% were inaccurately predicted to be failures).Also,for all new products that were ultimately failures,70% were predicted to be failures (and the other 30% were inaccurately predicted to be successes).If the market research predicted that the product would be a success,what is the probability that it would actually be a success?

(Multiple Choice)
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A market research firm is investigating the appeal of three package designs.The table below gives information obtained through a sample of 200 consumers.The three package designs are labelled A,B,and C.The consumers are classified according to age and package design preference. A market research firm is investigating the appeal of three package designs.The table below gives information obtained through a sample of 200 consumers.The three package designs are labelled A,B,and C.The consumers are classified according to age and package design preference.   If one of these consumers is randomly selected,what is the probability that the person prefers design A? If one of these consumers is randomly selected,what is the probability that the person prefers design A?

(Multiple Choice)
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The method of assigning probabilities to uncertain outcomes based on laws and rules is called the classical method.

(True/False)
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Bayes' rule is a rule to assign probabilities under the classical method.

(True/False)
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An analysis of personal loans at a local bank revealed the following facts: 10% of all personal loans are in default (D),90% of all personal loans are not in default (D΄),20% of those in default are homeowners (H | D),and 70% of those not in default are homeowners (H | D΄).If a personal loan is selected at random P (H ∩\cap D')= ___.

(Multiple Choice)
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Given two events,A and B,if the probability of either A or B occurring is 0.8,then the probability of neither A nor B occurring is -0.8.

(True/False)
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Describe what probability is and when one would use it.

(Essay)
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Given two events,A and B,if the probability of A is 0.6,the probability of B is 0.4,and the joint probability of A and B is 0.24,then the two events are independent.

(True/False)
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Bayes' rule is an extension of the law of conditional probabilities to allow revision of original probabilities with new information.

(True/False)
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Consider the following sample space,S,and several events defined on it.S = {Albert,Betty,Abel,Jack,Patty,Meagan},and the events are: F = {Betty,Patty,Meagan},H = {Abel,Meagan},and P = {Betty,Abel}.F ∪\cup H is ___.

(Multiple Choice)
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