Exam 11: Inductive Reasoning

Make this inductive (statistical)syllogism into a relatively strong argument by supplying an appropriate premise or conclusion:Most people with old cars have financial problems,so Anne and Dennis must be struggling financially.

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. Stratton takes one look at his new teacher and concludes he is going to like the course."You can just tell," he says to his girlfriend later,"it's gonna be a great course.The teacher brought up all these interesting subjects-and it was only the first day."

Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised.The tray is promised to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity.Lin tries it out by placing a pan of hot beans on it.They stay hot throughout dinner."It works," she tells her husband. What kind of causal claim is this?

Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised.The tray is promised to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity.Lin tries it out by placing a pan of hot beans on it.They stay hot throughout dinner."It works," she tells her husband. Do you think there could be a better test of the hot plate? Explain your response in a sentence or two.

A)Provide an informal analysis of the following passage;or B)in analyzing the passage,do the following: a.Identify the causal hypothesis at issue. b.Identify what kind of study it is. c.Describe the control and experimental groups. d.State the difference in effect (or cause)between control and experimental groups. e.Identify any problems in either the study or the report of it,including but not necessarily limited to uncontrolled variables. f.State the conclusion you think is warranted by the report. "You don't need to become a complete ascetic in order to lower your cholesterol levels.Scott M.Grundy of the University of Texas Health Science Center at Dallas and his colleagues rotated nine men through two-month stints on each of three diets-the American Health Association diet,in which a maximum of 30 percent of the calories come from fat;a 40 percent fat diet;and a 20 percent fat diet.The subjects' average cholesterol level was 210 mg/dl on entry. "In all the men,the blood levels of total cholesterol and of the 'bad' form of cholesterol,LDL-cholesterol,fell to around 175.'There were no significant differences [in cholesterol levels of the men] on these three diets,' Grundy says." -Science News

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. Gridley has been going to the Silver Dollar Fair every year for the past fifteen years.An acquaintance suggests they go to the fair,but "For God's sake,let's don't eat there,we'll die." Gridley knows better;he's never even once gotten sick from Silver Dollar food.

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Parker's mimosa tree is getting yellow and dropping leaves.He figures it must be the tiny little caterpillars he sees on it,since before he saw them the tree seemed fine.

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Sharon has observed that her teacher sometimes seems to be in a bad mood and speculates why."Well," she thinks,"it seems to happen only when people haven't done their assignments.That must be it."

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "My printer won't work because it's not properly hooked up to my computer."

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "Her arm developed a rash because she's allergic to the bracelet she was wearing."

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. Don't buy any Australian wine.I've had Australian wine before and,believe me,you won't like it.

A)Provide an informal analysis of the following passage;or B)in analyzing the passage,do the following: a.Identify the causal hypothesis at issue. b.Identify what kind of study it is. c.Describe the control and experimental groups. d.State the difference in effect (or cause)between control and experimental groups. e.Identify any problems in either the study or the report of it,including but not necessarily limited to uncontrolled variables. f.State the conclusion you think is warranted by the report. A.Yesavage of Stanford University and his colleagues recruited ten experienced private pilots and trained them on a computerized flight-simulator landing task.All subjects had smoked marijuana at some time in the past,though none was a daily user.None smoked marijuana during the test period,except as required by the test.The test period began with a morning baseline flight,after which each subject smoked a marijuana cigarette containing 19 milligrams of tetrahydrocannabinol,the active agent in marijuana.The pilots repeated the landing task one,four,and twenty-four hours later.The worst performances compared with the baseline occurred one hour after smoking the cigarette.Twenty-four hours later,however,the pilots still experienced significant difficulty in aligning the computerized airplane and landing it in the center of the runway.According to the scientists,there were marked deviations from the proper angle of descent in the last six thousand feet of approach to the landing. The amount of marijuana smoked is comparable to a strong social dose,the researchers said. -Adapted from Science News The men's baseline performances constitute the control group in this prospective observational study.One wonders about the pilots' attitudes:Were any out to prove a point?

Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised.The tray is promised to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity.Lin tries it out by placing a pan of hot beans on it.They stay hot throughout dinner."It works," she tells her husband. Invent at least one plausible alternative explanation of the effect.

Juanita has taken six courses at Valley Community College,and she has a grade average of B so far.All the courses she has taken have been in sociology and psychology.She's thinking of enrolling in another course next term,and she expects to make at least a B in whatever she takes.Suppose that when she took the previous courses,Juanita had done all her studying alone because she didn't know any of the other students at Valley but that now she knows several good students and plans to study with them when she takes her next course.Would her argument be stronger or weaker?

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Less than twenty-four hours after seeing the movie Glade's Corner,which depicts the brutal knife-slaying of an elderly man by teenagers,fifteen-year-old Mark Striker attempted to kill his sixty-five-year-old great uncle.His weapon:a knife.

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. Mr.Smythe has closed each of the last four contracts with France International.Seems to me he'd be likely to do well with the rest of our overseas deals.

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. Well,I did rotten in Algebra I last semester,so I expect I'll do poorly in the rest of the math classes I'll have to take.

In randomized controlled experiments,members of the sample are assigned to experimental groups and control groups by

Evaluate the following generalization(s),identifying sample,population,attribute of interest,and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable.Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample;remember,what's important is that the sample be representative. Haslett wanted to know what percentage of students at his college votes in local elections.He asked each of his professors (he was a political science major)to ask for a show of hands in his classes so he could make a count.He found that 45 percent of the 120 classmates polled vote in local elections.He concludes that about 45 percent of the students at his college vote in those elections.

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. A terrible squeaking noise from my tape recorder got so bad I couldn't stand to listen to my tapes anymore.I was sure the machine had developed a problem-and just a month after the warranty expired,too.So I cleaned the heads,the capstan,and all the moving parts,hoping I could make the noise go away.It remained.Then,just as I had decided I was going to have to take it in for repairs,I played some tapes belonging to a friend of mine,and the squeak wasn't there.So the problem is with my tapes,not my machine.I'm not sure I like that any better,since I've got dozens of them.