Exam 18: Forecasting

Exhibit 18-1 Below you are given the first five values of a quarterly time series.The multiplicative model is appropriate and a four-quarter moving average will be used. -Refer to Exhibit 18-1.An estimate of the trend component times the cyclical component (T₂C_t)for Quarter 3 of Year 1,when a four-quarter moving average is used,is

Exhibit 18-3 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 18-3.The forecast for period 10 is

In the linear trend equation,T = b₀ + b_1t,b₀ represents the

The forecasting method that is appropriate when the time series has no significant trend,cyclical,or seasonal effect is

The following data show the quarterly sales of a major auto manufacturer (introduced in exercise 4)for the years 8 through 10. a.Compute the four-quarter moving average values for the above time series. b.Compute the seasonal factors for the four quarters. c.Use the seasonal factors developed in Part b to adjust the forecast for the effect of season for year 9.

Below you are given information on crime statistics for Middletown. The seasonal factors for these data are a.Deseasonalize the series. b.Obtain an estimate of the linear trend for this series. c.Use the seasonal and trend components to forecast the number of crimes for each quarter of Year 5.

The time series component which reflects a regular,multi-year pattern of being above and below the trend line is