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Exam 16: Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting

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THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -The time-series model X<sub>t</sub> = T<sub>t</sub> × S<sub>t</sub> × C<sub>t</sub> × I<sub>t</sub> is used for forecasting,where T<sub>t</sub>,S<sub>t</sub>,C<sub>t</sub>,and I<sub>t</sub> are respectively the trend,seasonal,cyclical,and irregular components of the time series,and X<sub>t</sub> is the value of the time series at time t.The following estimates are obtained: <sub>t</sub> = 125, <sub>t</sub> = 0.92, <sub>t</sub> = 1.04,and <sub>= 0.90.The model will produce a forecast of:</sub> -The time-series model Xt = Tt × St × Ct × It is used for forecasting,where Tt,St,Ct,and It are respectively the trend,seasonal,cyclical,and irregular components of the time series,and Xt is the value of the time series at time t.The following estimates are obtained: THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -The time-series model X<sub>t</sub> = T<sub>t</sub> × S<sub>t</sub> × C<sub>t</sub> × I<sub>t</sub> is used for forecasting,where T<sub>t</sub>,S<sub>t</sub>,C<sub>t</sub>,and I<sub>t</sub> are respectively the trend,seasonal,cyclical,and irregular components of the time series,and X<sub>t</sub> is the value of the time series at time t.The following estimates are obtained: <sub>t</sub> = 125, <sub>t</sub> = 0.92, <sub>t</sub> = 1.04,and <sub>= 0.90.The model will produce a forecast of:</sub> t = 125, THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -The time-series model X<sub>t</sub> = T<sub>t</sub> × S<sub>t</sub> × C<sub>t</sub> × I<sub>t</sub> is used for forecasting,where T<sub>t</sub>,S<sub>t</sub>,C<sub>t</sub>,and I<sub>t</sub> are respectively the trend,seasonal,cyclical,and irregular components of the time series,and X<sub>t</sub> is the value of the time series at time t.The following estimates are obtained: <sub>t</sub> = 125, <sub>t</sub> = 0.92, <sub>t</sub> = 1.04,and <sub>= 0.90.The model will produce a forecast of:</sub> t = 0.92, THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -The time-series model X<sub>t</sub> = T<sub>t</sub> × S<sub>t</sub> × C<sub>t</sub> × I<sub>t</sub> is used for forecasting,where T<sub>t</sub>,S<sub>t</sub>,C<sub>t</sub>,and I<sub>t</sub> are respectively the trend,seasonal,cyclical,and irregular components of the time series,and X<sub>t</sub> is the value of the time series at time t.The following estimates are obtained: <sub>t</sub> = 125, <sub>t</sub> = 0.92, <sub>t</sub> = 1.04,and <sub>= 0.90.The model will produce a forecast of:</sub> t = 1.04,and THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -The time-series model X<sub>t</sub> = T<sub>t</sub> × S<sub>t</sub> × C<sub>t</sub> × I<sub>t</sub> is used for forecasting,where T<sub>t</sub>,S<sub>t</sub>,C<sub>t</sub>,and I<sub>t</sub> are respectively the trend,seasonal,cyclical,and irregular components of the time series,and X<sub>t</sub> is the value of the time series at time t.The following estimates are obtained: <sub>t</sub> = 125, <sub>t</sub> = 0.92, <sub>t</sub> = 1.04,and <sub>= 0.90.The model will produce a forecast of:</sub> = 0.90.The model will produce a forecast of:

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Question 21

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -Determine the forecast for the year 1901. -Determine the forecast for the year 1901.

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Question 22

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis. The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods. He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. ) THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis. The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods. He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. ) -The Holt-Winters exponential smoothing procedure: -The Holt-Winters exponential smoothing procedure:

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Question 23

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used. THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used. -Determine the value of . -Determine the value of THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used. -Determine the value of . .

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Question 24

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -The number of four-period centered moving averages of a time series with 20 time periods is: -The number of four-period centered moving averages of a time series with 20 time periods is:

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Question 25

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years. The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component. THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years. The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component. -What is the seasonal index for quarter 4? -What is the seasonal index for quarter 4?

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Question 26

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods. THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods. -What is the error term that corresponds to the 1<sup>st</sup> quarter in year 5? -What is the error term that corresponds to the 1st quarter in year 5?

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Question 27

If x1,x2,x3,... ,xn are n observations of a time series of interest,a smoothed series can be obtained by using a simple centered 2(m + 1)-point moving average formula: If x<sub>1</sub>,x<sub>2</sub>,x<sub>3</sub>,... ,x<sub>n</sub> are n observations of a time series of interest,a smoothed series can be obtained by using a simple centered 2(m + 1)-point moving average formula: <sub> </sub>= 2m + 1 (t = m + 1,m + 2,... ,n - m). = 2m + 1 If x<sub>1</sub>,x<sub>2</sub>,x<sub>3</sub>,... ,x<sub>n</sub> are n observations of a time series of interest,a smoothed series can be obtained by using a simple centered 2(m + 1)-point moving average formula: <sub> </sub>= 2m + 1 (t = m + 1,m + 2,... ,n - m). (t = m + 1,m + 2,... ,n - m).

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Question 28

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -We calculate the three-period moving averages for a time series for all time periods except the: -We calculate the three-period moving averages for a time series for all time periods except the:

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Question 29

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods. Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3 THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods. Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3 -What is the value of the mean absolute percentage error? -What is the value of the mean absolute percentage error?

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Question 30

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -What is the value of the sum of squared forecast errors? -What is the value of the sum of squared forecast errors?

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Question 31

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -Which of the following years has the forecast value 98.44? -Which of the following years has the forecast value 98.44?

(Multiple Choice)
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Question 32

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years. The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component. THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years. The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component. -Determine the seasonal index for quarter 1. -Determine the seasonal index for quarter 1.

(Multiple Choice)
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Question 33

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods. THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods. -The error term that corresponds to the 3<sup>rd</sup> quarter in year 6 is: -The error term that corresponds to the 3rd quarter in year 6 is:

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Question 34

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The data values in the table below show quarterly sales of a corporation over a period of six years. THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The data values in the table below show quarterly sales of a corporation over a period of six years. -Some people consider moving averages and exponential smoothing to be very much alike.Not only are they used as predictors,but also their methodology has similarities.What do you think? -Some people consider moving averages and exponential smoothing to be very much alike.Not only are they used as predictors,but also their methodology has similarities.What do you think?

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Question 35

The location in time of the members of the series of moving averages corresponds precisely with that of the members of the original series.

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Question 36

Which of the following components in the time series is more likely to exhibit the relative steady growth of the population of Egypt from 1959 to 2009?

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Question 37

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods. Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3 THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods. Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3 -The sales forecast for the 4<sup>th</sup> quarter of year 8 is approximately ________ in 000's. -The sales forecast for the 4th quarter of year 8 is approximately ________ in 000's.

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Question 38

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1934-1944. THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1934-1944. -Show the calculations of the sum of squared errors. -Show the calculations of the sum of squared errors.

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Question 39

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis. The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods. He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. ) THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis. The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods. He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. ) -The method of moving averages is used to: -The method of moving averages is used to:

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Question 40
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