Exam 10: Forecasting

A company keeps track of unit sales and notes a strong trend during the past eight periods.They use an adjusted exponential smoothing model with an alpha equal to 0.7 and a beta equal to 0.6.Using the demand data and previous forecasts shown in the table,develop a forecast for period 4.

In order to indicate ________ in a forecast model,you should use the mean forecast error approach rather than the mean absolute deviation approach.

What is a collaborative planning,forecasting,and replenishment system and might it benefit those who choose to use it?

Over the long run,fluctuations in demand due to seasonality are greater than those due to randomness.

A seasonal pattern in time series data is evident when the level of the variable of interest moves erratically up or down from one period to the next.

A well-educated lumberjack decides to use linear regression to predict the demand for firewood based on the ambient temperature.He has collected data on firewood sales and temperature for the last several days and has performed some preliminary calculations as shown in the table.What is his regression equation based on the data?

Which of the following statements regarding collaborative planning,forecasting,and replenishment (CPFR)systems is BEST?

A forecaster is assessing two different models for demand.The output from each model and the actual demand data appear in the table.Use MAD and a tracking signal to compare the two models.Which model does a better job of forecasting?

Describe the mechanics of three qualitative forecasting techniques and compare their strengths and weaknesses.

________ is unpredictable movement from one time period to the next

Forecasts are almost always wrong.

McMahon and Tate advertising company is interested in an appropriate mix of print,radio,and television ads for their new client.Darrin Stevens performs a multiple regression on the effects of dollars spent on each type of media on dollars of sales of product.Darrin uses data from the most recent advertising campaigns and develops the following equation: y = 254,215 + 6.79 × Print - 1.4 × Radio + 16.87 × Television The r-squared statistic is 0.77.Which of the following statements is BEST?

The independent variable is the quantity the forecaster is interested in estimating with a linear regression model.

The slope of the regression equation is positive if the r-squared value is greater than 0.0.

What are the laws of forecasting and what are their implications for operations and supply chain managers?

A qualitative forecasting technique in which individuals familiar with specific market segments estimate the demands within these sectors that are then summed to get an overall forecast is called a:

Nora Damus reviews her forecasting triumphs and failures as part of her annual report to the Chief Operating Officer.She notes that her monthly forecast for batteries has a mean forecast error of 20,and a mean absolute deviation of 20.Which of the following statements about her forecast is BEST?

A collaborative planning,forecasting and replenishment system eliminates the need for forecasting.

Qualitative forecasts are used when there is plenty of relevant data.

Exponential smoothing with an alpha of one will yield identical results to a last period actual demand.