Exam 15: Exchange Rates in the Long Run
Is PPP a theory of exchange rate determination? Explain why or why not?
PPP is not a theory of exchange rate determination. It describes an equilibrium relationship between two endogenous variables-prices and exchange rates. As such,the PPP relationship should be viewed as a short-cut rather than a substitute for a complete determination of prices and exchange rates. Its main usefulness is in providing a guide to the general trend of exchange rates rather than day-to-day fluctuations.
Is relative PPP a useful equilibrium concept for describing general trends in exchange rates? Under what kinds of circumstances would the concepts of PPP be best applied?
Relative PPP is not a theory of exchange rate determination but rather an equilibrium condition that may be useful for establishing general trends in exchange rates.It may only be useful for understanding exchange rates in the long run,not on a day to day basis.Moreover,exchange rates vary for multiple reasons,while relative PPP only considers the inflation differential between two currencies.The larger this difference is,the more valuable relative PPP will be for understanding the long term trend in an exchange rate.
Suppose a year ago the exchange rate between Mexican pesos and dollars was 13.5 pesos per dollar,and that according to relative PPP the exchange rate was in equilibrium.Furthermore,assume that since then,Mexican inflation has been 12 percent while the U.S.inflation has been 3 percent.If according to relative PPP the peso is now said to be overvalued,what is a possible exchange rate consistent with this assertion?
Empirical studies find that exchange rates are much more variable than inflation differentials. How can we explain this empirical result?
The empirical data indicate that in the short run exchange rates are much more variable than inflation differentials.
What is the difference between endogenous and exogenous variables? In the equilibrium condition of PPP,which variables are endogenous and which are exogenous?
If the exchange rate is equal to the ratio of the domestic and foreign price indexes,
According to The Economist magazine's Big Mac index,one of the most overvalued currencies as of July 2008 was the Norwegian kroner.Which of the following is a likely implication of that fact?
If relative PPP held,then the real exchange rate must be equal to one.
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