Exam 4: Basic Probability

The probability that a new advertising campaign will increase sales is assessed as being 0.80. The probability that the cost of developing the new ad campaign can be kept within the original Budget allocation is 0.40. Assuming that the two events are independent, the probability that the Cost is not kept within budget or the campaign will not increase sales is:

SCENARIO 4-12 A consulting firm that surveyed consumers' holiday shopping behavior found that the percentage of consumers from the U.S., Canada, and China who said that they planned to spend more on holiday shopping were 40%, 34% and 73%, respectively. The survey also found that the percentage of consumers from the U.S., Canada, and China who said that they were willing to share personal information with retailers in order to receive personalized offers from retailers were 55%, 46% and 72%, respectively. Assume that there are equal portions of consumers being surveyed from each of the three countries, the survey results are good representations of the three populations of consumers, and whether a consumer plans to spend more on holiday shopping is statistically independent of whether he/she is willing to share personal information with retailers in order to receive personalized offers from retailers. -Referring to Scenario 4-12, if you randomly select a consumer from any of the three countries, what is the probability that the consumer is from the U.S. or Canada who does not plan to spend more on holiday shopping and is not willing to share personal information with retailers in order to receive personalized offers from retailers?

SCENARIO 4-12 A consulting firm that surveyed consumers' holiday shopping behavior found that the percentage of consumers from the U.S., Canada, and China who said that they planned to spend more on holiday shopping were 40%, 34% and 73%, respectively. The survey also found that the percentage of consumers from the U.S., Canada, and China who said that they were willing to share personal information with retailers in order to receive personalized offers from retailers were 55%, 46% and 72%, respectively. Assume that there are equal portions of consumers being surveyed from each of the three countries, the survey results are good representations of the three populations of consumers, and whether a consumer plans to spend more on holiday shopping is statistically independent of whether he/she is willing to share personal information with retailers in order to receive personalized offers from retailers. -Referring to Scenario 4-12, if you randomly select a consumer from Canada, what is the probability that the consumer plans to spend more on holiday shopping and is not willing to share personal information with retailers in order to receive personalized offers from retailers?

SCENARIO 4-2 An alcohol awareness task force at a Big-Ten university sampled 200 students after the midterm to ask them whether they went bar hopping the weekend before the midterm or spent the weekend studying, and whether they did well or poorly on the midterm. The following result was obtained. Did Well on Midterm Did Poorly on Midterm Studying for Exam 80 20 Went Bar Hopping 30 70 -Referring to Scenario 4-2, what is the probability that a randomly selected student did well on the midterm or went bar hopping the weekend before the midterm? a) $30 / 200$ or $15 \%$ b) $( 80 + 30 ) / 200$ or $( 30 + 80 ) / 200$ or $55 \%$ c) $( 30 + 70 ) / 200$ or $( 70 + 30 ) / 200$ or $50 \%$ d) $( 80 + 30 + 70 ) / 200$ or $( 110 + 100 - 30 ) / 200$ or $90 \%$

SCENARIO 4-12 A consulting firm that surveyed consumers' holiday shopping behavior found that the percentage of consumers from the U.S., Canada, and China who said that they planned to spend more on holiday shopping were 40%, 34% and 73%, respectively. The survey also found that the percentage of consumers from the U.S., Canada, and China who said that they were willing to share personal information with retailers in order to receive personalized offers from retailers were 55%, 46% and 72%, respectively. Assume that there are equal portions of consumers being surveyed from each of the three countries, the survey results are good representations of the three populations of consumers, and whether a consumer plans to spend more on holiday shopping is statistically independent of whether he/she is willing to share personal information with retailers in order to receive personalized offers from retailers. -Referring to Scenario 4-12, if you randomly select a consumer from any of the three countries, what is the probability that the consumer is from China who plans to spend more on holiday shopping and is willing to share personal information with retailers in order to receive personalized offers from retailers?

If A and B cannot occur at the same time they are called mutually exclusive.

If two equally likely events A and B are mutually exclusive, what is the probability that event A occurs?

SCENARIO 4-1 Mothers Against Drunk Driving is a very visible group whose main focus is to educate the public about the harm caused by drunk drivers. A study was recently done that emphasized the problem we all face with drinking and driving. Four hundred accidents that occurred on a Saturday night were analyzed. Two items noted were the number of vehicles involved and whether alcohol played a role in the accident. The numbers are shown below: Number of Vehicles Involved Did alcohol play a role? Totals Yes 50 100 20 170 No 25 175 30 230 Totals 75 275 50 400 -Referring to Scenario 4-1, given that alcohol was not involved, what proportion of the accidents were single vehicle?

According to a survey of American households, the probability that the residents own 2 cars if annual household income is over $50,000 is 80%. Of the households surveyed, 60% had incomes Over $50,000 and 70% had 2 cars. The probability that the residents of a household own 2 cars And have an income less than or equal to $50,000 a year is:

SCENARIO 4-8 According to the record of the registrar's office at a state university, 35% of the students are freshman, 25% are sophomore, 16% are junior and the rest are senior. Among the freshmen, sophomores, juniors and seniors, the portion of students who live in the dormitory are, respectively, 80%, 60%, 30% and 20%. -Referring to Scenario 4-8, what percentage of the students live in a dormitory?

Selection of raffle tickets from a large bowl is an example of

If the outcome of event A is not affected by event B, then events A and B are said to be

SCENARIO 4-6 At a Texas college, 60% of the students are from the southern part of the state, 30% are from the northern part of the state, and the remaining 10% are from out-of-state. All students must take and pass an Entry Level Math (ELM) test. 60% of the southerners have passed the ELM, 70% of the northerners have passed the ELM, and 90% of the out-of-staters have passed the ELM. -Referring to Scenario 4-6, the probability that a randomly selected student is someone from northern Texas who has not passed the ELM is ________.

SCENARIO 4-6 At a Texas college, 60% of the students are from the southern part of the state, 30% are from the northern part of the state, and the remaining 10% are from out-of-state. All students must take and pass an Entry Level Math (ELM) test. 60% of the southerners have passed the ELM, 70% of the northerners have passed the ELM, and 90% of the out-of-staters have passed the ELM. -Referring to Scenario 4-6, the probability that a randomly selected student has passed the ELM is ________.

SCENARIO 4-12 A consulting firm that surveyed consumers' holiday shopping behavior found that the percentage of consumers from the U.S., Canada, and China who said that they planned to spend more on holiday shopping were 40%, 34% and 73%, respectively. The survey also found that the percentage of consumers from the U.S., Canada, and China who said that they were willing to share personal information with retailers in order to receive personalized offers from retailers were 55%, 46% and 72%, respectively. Assume that there are equal portions of consumers being surveyed from each of the three countries, the survey results are good representations of the three populations of consumers, and whether a consumer plans to spend more on holiday shopping is statistically independent of whether he/she is willing to share personal information with retailers in order to receive personalized offers from retailers. -Referring to Scenario 4-12, if you randomly select a consumer from any of the three countries, what is the probability that the consumer is from the U.S. or China who does not plan to spend more on holiday shopping and is not willing to share personal information with retailers in order to receive personalized offers from retailers?

The closing price of a company's stock tomorrow can be lower, higher or the same as today's closing price. Based on the closing price of the stock collected over the last month, 25% of the Days the closing price was higher than previous day's closing price, 45% was lower than previous Day's and 30% was the same as previous day's. Based on this information, the probability that Tomorrow's closing price will be higher than today's is 25%. This is an example of using which Of the following probability approach?

SCENARIO 4-11 A sample of 300 adults is selected. The contingency table below shows their registration status and their preferred source of information on current events. -Referring to Scenario 4-11, if an adult is selected at random, what is the probability that he/she is a registered voter?

SCENARIO 4-1 Mothers Against Drunk Driving is a very visible group whose main focus is to educate the public about the harm caused by drunk drivers. A study was recently done that emphasized the problem we all face with drinking and driving. Four hundred accidents that occurred on a Saturday night were analyzed. Two items noted were the number of vehicles involved and whether alcohol played a role in the accident. The numbers are shown below: Number of Vehicles Involved Did alcohol play a role? Totals Yes 50 100 20 170 No 25 175 30 230 Totals 75 275 50 400 -Referring to Scenario 4-1, given that multiple vehicles were involved, what proportion of accidents involved alcohol?

SCENARIO 4-12 A consulting firm that surveyed consumers' holiday shopping behavior found that the percentage of consumers from the U.S., Canada, and China who said that they planned to spend more on holiday shopping were 40%, 34% and 73%, respectively. The survey also found that the percentage of consumers from the U.S., Canada, and China who said that they were willing to share personal information with retailers in order to receive personalized offers from retailers were 55%, 46% and 72%, respectively. Assume that there are equal portions of consumers being surveyed from each of the three countries, the survey results are good representations of the three populations of consumers, and whether a consumer plans to spend more on holiday shopping is statistically independent of whether he/she is willing to share personal information with retailers in order to receive personalized offers from retailers. -Referring to Scenario 4-12, if you randomly select a consumer from any of the three countries, what is the probability that the consumer is from China or Canada who does not plan to spend more on holiday shopping and is not willing to share personal information with retailers in order to receive personalized offers from retailers?

The closing price of a company's stock tomorrow can be lower, higher or the same as today's closed. Without any prior information that may affect the price of the stock tomorrow, the Probability that it will close higher than today's close is 1/3. This is an example of using which Of the following probability approach?