Exam 2: Review of Probability

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The probability of an event A or B(Pr⁡(A or B))A \text { or } B ( \operatorname { Pr } ( A \text { or } B ) ) to occur equals

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The sample average is a random variable and a. is a single number and as a result cannot have a distribution. b. has a probability distribution called its sampling distribution. c. has a probability distribution called the standard normal distribution. d. has a probability distribution that is the same as for the Y1,…,YnY _ { 1 } , \ldots , Y _ { n } i.i.d. variables.

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If variables with a multivariate normal distribution have covariances that equal zero, then a. the correlation will most often be zero, but does not have to be. b. the variables are independent. c. you should use the χ2\chi ^ { 2 } distribution to calculate probabilities. d. the marginal distribution of each of the variables is no longer normal.

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The table accompanying lists the joint distribution of unemployment in the United States in 2001 by demographic characteristics (race and gender). Joint Distribution of Unemployment by Demographic Characteristics, United States, 2001 White (Y=0) Black and Other (Y=1) Total Age 16-19 (X=0) 0.13 0.05 0.18 Age 20 and above (X=1) 0.60 0.22 0.82 Total 0.73 0.27 1.00 (a)What is the percentage of unemployed white teenagers?

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The central limit theorem a. states conditions under which a variable involving the sum of Y1,…,YnY _ { 1 } , \ldots , Y _ { n } i.i.d. variables becomes the standard normal distribution. b. postulates that the sample mean Yˉ\bar { Y } is a consistent estimator of the population mean μY\mu _ { Y } . c. only holds in the presence of the law of large numbers. d. states conditions under which a variable involving the sum of Y1,…,YnY _ { 1 } , \ldots , Y _ { n } i.i.d. variables becomes the Student tt distribution.

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var⁡(aX+bY)=\operatorname { var } ( a X + b Y ) =

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Find the following probabilities: (a) Y is distributed χ42. Find Pr⁡(Y>9.49). Y \text { is distributed } \chi _ { 4 } ^ { 2 } \text {. Find } \operatorname { Pr } ( Y > 9.49 ) \text {. }

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Think of an example involving five possible quantitative outcomes of a discrete random variable and attach a probability to each one of these outcomes.Display the outcomes, probability distribution, and cumulative probability distribution in a table.Sketch both the probability distribution and the cumulative probability distribution.

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The covariance inequality states that a. 0≤σXY2≤1\quad 0 \leq \sigma _ { X Y } ^ { 2 } \leq 1 . b. σXY2≤σX2σY2\sigma _ { X Y } ^ { 2 } \leq \sigma _ { X } ^ { 2 } \sigma _ { Y } ^ { 2 } . c. σXY2−σX2≤σY2\sigma _ { X Y } ^ { 2 } - \sigma _ { X } ^ { 2 } \leq \sigma _ { Y } ^ { 2 } . d. σXY2≤σX2σY2\quad \sigma _ { X Y } ^ { 2 } \leq \frac { \sigma _ { X } ^ { 2 } } { \sigma _ { Y } ^ { 2 } } .

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The textbook mentioned that the mean of Y, E(Y) is called the first moment of Y , and that the expected value of the square of Y,E(Y2)Y , E \left( Y ^ { 2 } \right) is called the second moment of Y , and so on. These are also referred to as moments about the origin. A related concept is moments about the mean, which are defined as E[(Y−μY)r]E \left[ \left( Y - \mu _ { Y } \right) ^ { r } \right] What do you call the second moment about the mean? What do you think the third moment, referred to as "skewness," measures? Do you believe that it would be positive or negative for an earnings distribution? What measure of the third moment around the mean do you get for a normal distribution?

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The skewness of the distribution of a random variable Y is defined as follows: a. E[(Y3−μY)]σY2\frac { E \left[ \left( Y ^ { 3 } - \mu _ { Y } \right) \right] } { \sigma _ { Y } ^ { 2 } } b. E[(Y−μY)3]E \left[ \left( Y - \mu _ { Y } \right) ^ { 3 } \right] c. E[(Y3−μY3)]σY3\frac { E \left[ \left( Y ^ { 3 } - \mu _ { Y } ^ { 3 } \right) \right] } { \sigma _ { Y } ^ { 3 } } d. E[(Y−μY)3]σY3\frac { E \left[ \left( Y - \mu _ { Y } \right) ^ { 3 } \right] } { \sigma _ { Y } ^ { 3 } }

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The systolic blood pressure of females in their 20s is normally distributed with a mean of 120 with a standard deviation of 9.What is the probability of finding a female with a blood pressure of less than 100? More than 135? Between 105 and 123? You visit the women's soccer team on campus, and find that the average blood pressure of the 25 members is 114.Is it likely that this group of women came from the same population?

(Essay)
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Assume that Y is normally distributed N(μ,σ2)N \left( \mu , \sigma ^ { 2 } \right) To find Pr⁡(c1≤Y≤c2)\operatorname { Pr } \left( c _ { 1 } \leq Y \leq c _ { 2 } \right) where c1<c2c _ { 1 } < c _ { 2 } and di=ci−μσd _ { i } = \frac { c _ { i } - \mu } { \sigma } , you need to calculate Pr⁡(d1≤Z≤d2)=\operatorname { Pr } \left( d _ { 1 } \leq Z \leq d _ { 2 } \right) =

(Multiple Choice)
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The Student t distribution is

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The probability of an outcome

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To infer the political tendencies of the students at your college/university, you sample 150 of them.Only one of the following is a simple random sample: You

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The following problem is frequently encountered in the case of a rare disease, say AIDS, when determining the probability of actually having the disease after testing positively for HIV. (This is often known as the accuracy of the test given that you have the disease.) Let us set up the problem as follows: Y=0Y = 0 if you tested negative using the ELISA test for HIV, Y=1Y = 1 if you tested positive; X=1X = 1 if you have HIV, X=0X = 0 if you do not have HIV. Assume that 0.10.1 percent of the population has HIV and that the accuracy of the test is 0.950.95 in both cases of (i) testing positive when you have HIV, and (ii) testing negative when you do not have HIV. (The actual ELISA test is actually 99.799.7 percent accurate when you have HIV, and 98.598.5 percent accurate when you do not have HIV.) (a)Assuming arbitrarily a population of 10,000,000 people, use the accompanying table to first enter the column totals. Test Positive (Y=1) Test Negative (Y=0) Total HIV (X=1) No HIV (X=0) Total 10,000,000

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The mean of the sample average Yˉ,E(Yˉ)\bar { Y } , E ( \bar { Y } ) is

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What is the probability of the following outcomes? (a) Pr⁡(M=7)\quad \operatorname { Pr } ( M = 7 ) (b) Pr⁡(M=2\operatorname { Pr } ( M = 2 or M=10)M = 10 ) (c) Pr⁡(M=4\operatorname { Pr } ( M = 4 or M≠4)M \neq 4 ) (d) Pr⁡(M=6\operatorname { Pr } ( M = 6 and M=9)M = 9 ) (e) Pr⁡(M<8)\operatorname { Pr } ( M < 8 ) (f) Pr⁡(M=6\operatorname { Pr } ( M = 6 or M>10)M > 10 )

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Explain why the two probabilities are identical for the standard normal distribution: Pr⁡(−1.96≤X≤1.96) and Pr⁡(−1.96<X<1.96)\operatorname { Pr } ( - 1.96 \leq X \leq 1.96 ) \text { and } \operatorname { Pr } ( - 1.96 < X < 1.96 )

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