Exam 15: Forecasting

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A customer comment phone line is staffed from 8:00 a.Use this information to calculate a seasonal index. a.m.to 4:30 p.m.five days a week.Records are available that show the number of calls received every day for the last five weeks. Week Day Number Week Day Number 1 28 4 35 12 17 16 W 16 15 TH 20 23 29 2 29 5 37 10 19 14 W 18 14 21 26 28 3 32 15 W 15 TH 18 F 27 b.Deseasonalize the data. c.Find the trend line. d.Assume there is no cyclical component and forecast the calls for week 6.

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How can error measures be used to determine the number of periods to use in a moving average? What are you assuming about the future when you make this choice?

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Monthly sales at a coffee shop have been analyzed. The seasonal index values are Month Index Jan 1.38 Feb 1.42 Mar 1.35 Apr 1.03 May .99 June .62 July .51 Aug .58 Sept .82 Oct .82 Nov .92 Dec 1.56 and the trend line is 74123 + 26.9(t). Assume there is no cyclical component and forecast sales for year 8 (months 97 - 108).

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Which of the following forecasting methods puts the least weight on the most recent time series value?

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The focus of smoothing methods is to smooth

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To select a value for α\alpha for exponential smoothing

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Seasonal components

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