Exam 8: Probability

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If A and B are mutually exclusive, P(A)=0.2P ( A ) = 0.2 , and P(B)=0.6P ( B ) = 0.6 , find P(A∪B)′P ( A \cup B ) ^ { \prime } .

(Multiple Choice)
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This table shows the results of a survey of authors by a (fictitious) publishing company New Authors Established Authors Total Successful 5 25 30 Unsuccessful 15 55 70 Total 20 80 100 What percentage of established authors are unsuccessful Express your answer to the nearest hundredth of a percent. __________% What percentage of unsuccessful authors are established Express your answer to the nearest hundredth of a percent. __________%

(Short Answer)
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Calculate the estimated probability using the given information. ​ ​N​ = 200, fr(E) = 20 ​

(Multiple Choice)
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The phrase "Dogs of the Dow" refers to the stocks listed in the Dow with the highest dividend yield. This table shows the top ten stocks of the "Dogs of the Dow" list. If you selected two of these stocks at random, what is the probability that both the stocks in your selection had yields of 4.5% or more Symbol Company Yield SBC SBC Communications 5.46\% GM General Motors 5.46\% MRK Merck 5.42\% MO Altria 4.55\% VZ Verizon 4.32\% JPM JP Morgan Chase 3.78\% C Citigroup 3.64\% PFE Pfizer 3.12\% DD DuPont 2.96\% GE General Electric 2.46\%

(Multiple Choice)
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The following diagram shows the movement of U.S. households among three income groups - affluent, middle class, and poor - over the 11-year period 1978-1989.  The following diagram shows the movement of U.S. households among three income groups - affluent, middle class, and poor - over the 11-year period 1978-1989.    ?  a = 28.8 \%  ,  b = 7.2 \%  ,  c = 30.1 \%  ,  d = 8.3 \%  ? Use the transitions shown in the diagram to construct a transition matrix (assuming zero probabilities for the transitions between affluent and poor).   Take 1 = Affluent, 2 = Middle class, 3 = Poor.   Assuming that the trend shown was to continue, what percent of households classified as affluent in 1978 were predicted to become poor in 2000  (Give your answer to the nearest 0.1%.)   The answer is __________%   According to the model, what percentage of all U.S. households will be in each income bracket in the long term  (Give your answers to the nearest 0.1 percent.)   Percent of affluent is __________%   Percent of middle class is __________%   Percent of poor is __________% ? a=28.8%a = 28.8 \% , b=7.2%b = 7.2 \% , c=30.1%c = 30.1 \% , d=8.3%d = 8.3 \% ? Use the transitions shown in the diagram to construct a transition matrix (assuming zero probabilities for the transitions between affluent and poor). Take 1 = Affluent, 2 = Middle class, 3 = Poor. Assuming that the trend shown was to continue, what percent of households classified as affluent in 1978 were predicted to become poor in 2000 (Give your answer to the nearest 0.1%.) The answer is __________% According to the model, what percentage of all U.S. households will be in each income bracket in the long term (Give your answers to the nearest 0.1 percent.) Percent of affluent is __________% Percent of middle class is __________% Percent of poor is __________%

(Essay)
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The table shows sales in thousands of units of iPods(R) , Powerbooks(R) and iMac(R) in the fourth quarter of 2001. Units (,) 1,040 230 240 ​ Compute the probability that the item sold in 2001 Q4 was either the PowerBooks(R) or the iMac(R) . Round to two decimal places, if necessary. The probability is __________.

(Short Answer)
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Two dice (one red and one green) are rolled, and the numbers that face up are observed. Test the pair of events for independence. ​ A: The red die is 1, 3, or 5; B: The green die is even. ​

(Multiple Choice)
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You are deciding on whether to enroll in Economics 200, Finite Math 300, Greek Poetry 400, or Calculus 500. Describe the event E of avoiding math classes.

(Multiple Choice)
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Use Bayes' theorem or a tree diagram to calculate the indicated probability. Round the answer to four decimal places. Y1Y _ { 1 } , Y2Y _ { 2 } , Y3Y _ { 3 } form a partition of S. P(X∣Y1)=0.4P \left( X \mid Y _ { 1 } \right) = 0.4 , P(X∣Y2)=0.5P \left( X \mid Y _ { 2 } \right) = 0.5 , P(X∣Y3)=0.7P \left( X \mid Y _ { 3 } \right) = 0.7 , P(Y1)=0.7P \left( Y _ { 1 } \right) = 0.7 , P(Y2)=0.1P \left( Y _ { 2 } \right) = 0.1 . Find P(Y1∣X)P \left( Y _ { 1 } \mid X \right) .

(Multiple Choice)
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It snows in Greenland an average of once in 25 days, and when it does, glaciers have a 15% chance of growing. When it does not snow in Greenland, glaciers have only a 4% chance of growing. What is the probability that it is snowing in Greenland when glaciers are growing Please, round your answer to four decimal places. The probability is __________.

(Short Answer)
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Tommy the dunker's performance on the basketball court is influenced by his state of mind. If he scores, he is three times as likely to score on the next shot as he is to miss; whereas, if he misses a shot he is four times as likely to miss the next shot as he is to score. In the long term, what percentage of shots are successful

(Multiple Choice)
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You have worked for the Department of Administrative Affairs (DAA) for 27 years, and you still have little or no idea exactly what your job entails. To make your life a little more interesting, you have decided on the following course of action. Every Friday afternoon, you will use your desktop computer to generate a random digit from 0 to 9 (inclusive). If the digit is a eight or greater, you will immediately quit your job, never to return. Otherwise, you will return to work the following Monday. What is the probability that you will still be employed by the DAA after each of the next three weeks ?

(Multiple Choice)
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Find P(A′)P \left( A ^ { \prime } \right) if P(A)=0.41P ( A ) = 0.41 .

(Multiple Choice)
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In the New York State daily lottery game, a sequence of 6 (not necessarily different) digits in the range of 0-9 is selected at random. ​ Find the probability that all 6 are different. Round your answer to four decimal places. ​

(Multiple Choice)
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Describe the sample space S of the experiment of selecting a letter at random from the word, "Kentucky" and list the elements of the event "choosing a vowel".

(Multiple Choice)
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Complete the probability distribution table and then calculate P({a,b,e})P ( \{ a , b , e \} ) . Outcome a b c d e Probability 0.2 0.35 0.2 0.1

(Multiple Choice)
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Two dice (one red and one green) are rolled, and the numbers that face up are observed. Test the pair of events for independence. ​ A: Neither die is 4; B: Exactly one die is 3. ​

(Multiple Choice)
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Determine whether the given information is consistent with a probability distribution. P(A)=0.7P ( A ) = 0.7 ; P(B)=0P ( B ) = 0 ; P(A∩B)=0P ( A \cap B ) = 0

(Multiple Choice)
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According to a study in The New England Journal of Medicine, 85 of a sample of 5,990 middle-aged men had developed heart disease. It also found that men who were very active (burning about 3,500 calories daily) were half as likely to develop heart disease compared with men who were sedentary. Assume that one-fourth of all middle-aged men are very active, and the rest are classified as sedentary. What is the probability that a middle-aged man with heart disease is very active Please, round your answer to two decimal places. ? The probability is __________.

(Short Answer)
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A New York Times survey of needy and disabled youths showed that 51% of those who had no preschool education were arrested or charged with a crime by the time they were 19, whereas only 31% who had preschool education wound up in this category. The survey did not specify what percentage of the youths in the survey had preschool education, so let us take a guess at that and estimate that 75% of them had attended preschool. Would youths who had preschool education be more likely to be arrested or charged with a crime than those who did not ?

(Multiple Choice)
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