Exam 17: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

A method that uses a weighted average of past values for arriving at smoothed time series values is known as

The forecasting method that is appropriate when the time series has no significant trend, cyclical, or seasonal effect is

You are given the following information on the seasonal-irregular component values for a quarterly time series: The seasonal index for Quarter 1 is

The yearly series below exhibits a long-term trend. Use the appropriate forecasting technique to produce forecasts for years 11 and 12.

You are given the following information on the quarterly profits for Ajax Corporation. a.Find the four-quarter centered moving averages. b.Compute the seasonal-irregular component. c.Compute the seasonal factors for all four quarters. d.Represent the deseasonalized series.

What is the forecast for July based on a three-month weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 6, 4, and 2 (largest weight is for most recent data)? Show all of your computations for April through July.

If data for a time series analysis is collected on an annual basis only, which component may be ignored?

The quarterly sales of a company (in millions of dollars) over the past three years are given in the following table. a.Compute the four seasonal factors (Seasonal Indexes). Show all of your computations. b.The trend for these data is Trend = 185.86 + 5.25 t (t represents time, where t=1 for Quarter 1 of 2007 and t=12 for Quarter 4 of 2009). Forecast sales for the first quarter of 2010 using the trend only. Show all of your computations. c.Forecast sales for the first quarter of 2010 using the trend and seasonal indexes and write your answer below. Show all of your computations.

Below you are given some values of a time series consisting of 26 time periods. The estimated regression equation for these data is Y_t = 16.23 + .52Y_t-1 + .37Y_t-2 The forecasted value for time period 27 is

For the following time series, you are given the moving average forecast. The mean squared error equals

Exhibit 18-2 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 18-2. The forecast for period 10 is

A qualitative forecasting method that obtains forecasts through "group consensus" is known as the

The following information has been collected on the sales of greeting cards for the past 6 weeks. a.Produce exponential smoothing forecasts for the series using a smoothing constant of .2. b.Compute the mean square error for the forecasts produced with a smoothing constant of .2. c.What is the forecast of sales for week 7? d.Is a smoothing constant of .2 or .3 better for the sales data? Explain.

Below you are given information on John's income for the past 7 years. a.Use regression analysis to obtain an expression for the linear trend component. b.Forecast John's income for the next 5 years.

The sales records of a company over a period of seven years are shown below. a.Develop a linear trend expression for the above time series. b.Forecast sales for period 10.

Exhibit 18-3 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 18-3. The forecast for period 10 is

Exhibit 18-3 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 18-3. In which time period does the value of Y_i reach zero?

A group of observations measured at successive time intervals is known as

The quarterly sales of a company (in millions of dollars) over the past three years are given in the following table. a.Compute the four seasonal factors (Seasonal Indexes). Show all of your computations. b.The trend for these data is Trend = 174 + 4 t (t represents time, where t=1 for Quarter 1 of 2007 and t=12 for Quarter 4 of 2009). Forecast sales for the first quarter of 2010 using the trend and seasonal indexes. Show all of your computations.

What is the forecast for July based on a three-month weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 5, 3,and 2 (largest weight is for most recent data)? Show all of your computations for April through July.