Exam 12: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

The seasonal component of a time series is more difficult to predict than the cyclic component because cyclic variation is much more regular.

The time series component that reflects a long-term,relatively smooth pattern or direction exhibited by a time series over a long time period,is called seasonal.

In exponential smoothing models,the forecast is based on the level at time t,L_t,which is not observable and can only be estimated.

The purpose of using the moving average is to take away the short-term seasonal and random variation,leaving behind a combined trend and cyclical movement.

Models such as moving averages,exponential smoothing,and linear trend use only

In a regression model with seasonal dummy variables,the coefficients on the dummy variables represent the additive factor relative to the reference quarter value,not the multiplicative factor.

The moving average method can also be referred to as a(n)____ method.

To deseasonalize an observation (assuming a multiplicative model of seasonality),multiply it by the appropriate seasonal index.

The cyclic component of a time series is likely to exhibit business cycles that record periods of economic recession and inflation.

Forecasting models can be divided into three groups.They are _____ methods.

When using exponential smoothing,if you want the forecast to react quickly to movements in the series,you should choose

What changes,if any,would you suggest to improve the forecast?

The idea behind the runs test is that a random number series should have a number of runs that is

Which summary measure for forecast errors does not depend on the units of the forecast variable?

Holt's model differs from simple exponential smoothing in that it includes a term for