Question 1

Briefly explain the simple exponential smoothing model used in forecasting.

Accepted Answer

The basic simple exponential smoothing m

Question 2

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The sales details for 6 weeks of a particular type of switches,called the "Twitch," are shown in the table below.The value of k is set at 2.  
-For the given data,the value of the root mean square error is ________.

Accepted Answer

A) 9.25 
B) 7.36 
C) 54.13 
D) 21.10 
A) 9.25 
B) 7.36 
C) 54.13 
D) 21.10

Question 3

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales details of a kind of vegetable sold at a department store for each week.  
-If the price/pound of the vegetable sold on week 15 is $5,determine the forecast for week 15.

Accepted Answer

A) approximately 20,840 pounds 
B) approximately 18,410 pounds 
C) approximately 16,640 pounds 
D) approximately 11,584 pounds 
A) approximately 20,840 pounds 
B) approximately 18,410 pounds 
C) approximately 16,640 pounds 
D) approximately 11,584 pounds

Question 4

If St - s + k is the seasonal factor for period t - s + k and s is the number of periods in a season,the seasonal multiplicative model can be written as ________.

Accepted Answer

A) Ft + k = (at + k)St - s + k 
B) Ft = at St - s + k 
C) Ft = at +k St - s + k 
D) Ft + k = at St - s + k 
A) Ft + k = (at + k)St - s + k 
B) Ft = at St - s + k 
C) Ft = at +k St - s + k 
D) Ft + k = at St - s + k

Question 5

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales of a gaming console for the first 6 months of the year 2011.
The forecaster uses the weighted average model to determine the forecasts.He assumes a 40% weight for the most recent reading,30% weight for the second most recent reading,20% for the third most recent reading,and 10% for the fourth most recent reading.  
-For the given data,the value of the mean absolute percentage error is ________.

Accepted Answer

A) 51.5 
B) 26.95 
C) 5.19 
D) 21.03 
A) 51.5 
B) 26.95 
C) 5.19 
D) 21.03

Question 6

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s).
The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1985-2000.  
-Setting k = 3,determine the value of the mean absolute deviation.

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& MAD = @#IMG-DLM& = @#IMG-DLM& = 6.17 Th

Question 7

A seasonal effect is one that repeats at fixed intervals of time,typically a year,month,week,or day.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 8

If the given time series has no trend and no seasonality,which of the following is the most appropriate forecasting model to determine the forecast of the time series?

Accepted Answer

A) the single moving average model 
B) the seasonal additive model 
C) the double exponential smoothing model 
D) the Holt-Winters additive model 
A) the single moving average model 
B) the seasonal additive model 
C) the double exponential smoothing model 
D) the Holt-Winters additive model

Question 9

Time-series models ________.

Accepted Answer

A) assume that whatever forces have influenced sales in the recent past will continue into the near future 
B) assume that forecasts are seldom developed by extrapolating historical data into the future 
C) include independent variables like,demand conditions and the current economy state that help in forecasting 
D) are also known as judgmental forecasting models 
A) assume that whatever forces have influenced sales in the recent past will continue into the near future 
B) assume that forecasts are seldom developed by extrapolating historical data into the future 
C) include independent variables like,demand conditions and the current economy state that help in forecasting 
D) are also known as judgmental forecasting models

Question 10

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales of a gaming console for the first 6 months of the year 2011.
The forecaster uses the weighted average model to determine the forecasts.He assumes a 40% weight for the most recent reading,30% weight for the second most recent reading,20% for the third most recent reading,and 10% for the fourth most recent reading.  
-In the simple exponential smoothing model Ft + 1 = (1 - α)Ft + αAt,the exponential smoothing constant is ________.

Accepted Answer

A) Ft+1 
B) α 
C) At 
D) Ft 
A) Ft+1 
B) α 
C) At 
D) Ft

Question 11

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales details of a kind of vegetable sold at a department store for each week.  
-Using the given data,calculate the value of mean absolute deviation.

Accepted Answer

A) 2,444,136.45 
B) 1,563.37 
C) 1,341.46 
D) 14.78 
A) 2,444,136.45 
B) 1,563.37 
C) 1,341.46 
D) 14.78

Question 12

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the industrial lathe sales from the years 2000-2005.The forecaster uses the regression method to determine the forecast for the future.  
-Using the given data,determine the value of MAPE.[Hint: Round the forecast values to 3 decimal places.]

Accepted Answer

A) 10.14 
B) 81.87 
C) 1.00 
D) 16.51 
A) 10.14 
B) 81.87 
C) 1.00 
D) 16.51

Question 13

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales of a gaming console for the first 6 months of the year 2011.
The forecaster uses the weighted average model to determine the forecasts.He assumes a 40% weight for the most recent reading,30% weight for the second most recent reading,20% for the third most recent reading,and 10% for the fourth most recent reading.  
-The value of α in the simple exponential smoothing model Ft + 1 = (1 - α)Ft + αAt lies between ________.

Accepted Answer

A) 1 and 2 
B) -1 and 0 
C) 0 and 1 
D) -1 and 1 
A) 1 and 2 
B) -1 and 0 
C) 0 and 1 
D) -1 and 1

Question 14

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales of a gaming console for the first 6 months of the year 2011.
The forecaster uses the weighted average model to determine the forecasts.He assumes a 40% weight for the most recent reading,30% weight for the second most recent reading,20% for the third most recent reading,and 10% for the fourth most recent reading.  
-Using the given data,calculate the value of the mean square error.

Accepted Answer

A) 5.15 
B) 44.95 
C) 9.19 
D) 0.87 
A) 5.15 
B) 44.95 
C) 9.19 
D) 0.87

Question 15

In the context of time series,a cyclical effect differs from a seasonal effect in that the cyclical effect ________.

Accepted Answer

A) shows a gradual shift in the time series 
B) does not show a gradual shift in the time series 
C) relates to much longer-term behavior 
D) relates to much shorter-term behavior 
A) shows a gradual shift in the time series 
B) does not show a gradual shift in the time series 
C) relates to much longer-term behavior 
D) relates to much shorter-term behavior

Question 16

Moving average and exponential smoothing models work best for stationary time series.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

If a time series has a trend and seasonality,the simple exponential smoothing model is the most appropriate model to be used for forecasting.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 18

The Delphi method of forecasting ________.

Accepted Answer

A) obtains forecasts through a comparative analysis with a previous situation 
B) uses measures that are believed to influence the behavior of a variable that the researcher wishes to forecast 
C) uses a single measure that weights multiple indicators and provides a measure of overall expectation 
D) promotes unbiased exchanges of ideas and discussion and usually results in some convergence of opinion 
A) obtains forecasts through a comparative analysis with a previous situation 
B) uses measures that are believed to influence the behavior of a variable that the researcher wishes to forecast 
C) uses a single measure that weights multiple indicators and provides a measure of overall expectation 
D) promotes unbiased exchanges of ideas and discussion and usually results in some convergence of opinion

Question 19

Sue decided to use the double moving average model to forecast the game sales for the next week,after looking at the tabulated sales for the past twelve weeks.What exactly did she observe?

Accepted Answer

A) a time series with no trend and no seasonality 
B) a time series with trend and seasonality 
C) a time series with trend and no seasonality 
D) a time series with seasonality and no trend 
A) a time series with no trend and no seasonality 
B) a time series with trend and seasonality 
C) a time series with trend and no seasonality 
D) a time series with seasonality and no trend

Question 20

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the car sales from the year 2002-2007.The forecaster assumes a smoothing constant of 0.8 and uses the exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for the future.  
-In the double exponential smoothing model Ft+k = at + btk,identify the value that signifies the level.

Accepted Answer

A) at 
B) Ft+k 
C) bt 
D) k 
A) at 
B) Ft+k 
C) bt 
D) k

Briefly explain the simple exponential smoothing model used in forecasting.

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The sales details for 6 weeks of a particular type of switches,called the "Twitch," are shown in the table below.The value of k is set at 2. -For the given data,the value of the root mean square error is ________.

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s). The table below shows the sales details of a kind of vegetable sold at a department store for each week. -If the price/pound of the vegetable sold on week 15 is $5,determine the forecast for week 15.

If S_t_-_s₊_k is the seasonal factor for period t - s + k and s is the number of periods in a season,the seasonal multiplicative model can be written as ________.

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s). The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1985-2000. -Setting k = 3,determine the value of the mean absolute deviation.

A seasonal effect is one that repeats at fixed intervals of time,typically a year,month,week,or day.

If the given time series has no trend and no seasonality,which of the following is the most appropriate forecasting model to determine the forecast of the time series?

Time-series models ________.

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s). The table below shows the sales details of a kind of vegetable sold at a department store for each week. -Using the given data,calculate the value of mean absolute deviation.

In the context of time series,a cyclical effect differs from a seasonal effect in that the cyclical effect ________.

Moving average and exponential smoothing models work best for stationary time series.

If a time series has a trend and seasonality,the simple exponential smoothing model is the most appropriate model to be used for forecasting.

The Delphi method of forecasting ________.

Sue decided to use the double moving average model to forecast the game sales for the next week,after looking at the tabulated sales for the past twelve weeks.What exactly did she observe?

Data and Business Decisions

Descriptive Statistics and Data Analysis

Probability Concepts and Distributions

Sampling and Estimation

Hypothesis Testing and Statistical Inference

Regression Analysis

Introduction to Statistical Quality Control

Building and Using Decision Models

Decision Models With Uncertainty and Risk

Decisions, uncertainty, and Risk

Queues and Process Simulation Modeling

Linear Optimization

Integer, nonlinear, and Advanced Optimization Methods

Filters

Exam 7: Forecasting

Briefly explain the simple exponential smoothing model used in forecasting.

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s). The sales details for 6 weeks of a particular type of switches,called the "Twitch," are shown in the table below.The value of k is set at 2. -For the given data,the value of the root mean square error is ________.

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s). The table below shows the sales details of a kind of vegetable sold at a department store for each week. -If the price/pound of the vegetable sold on week 15 is $5,determine the forecast for week 15.

If St - s + k is the seasonal factor for period t - s + k and s is the number of periods in a season,the seasonal multiplicative model can be written as ________.

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s). The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1985-2000. -Setting k = 3,determine the value of the mean absolute deviation.

A seasonal effect is one that repeats at fixed intervals of time,typically a year,month,week,or day.

If the given time series has no trend and no seasonality,which of the following is the most appropriate forecasting model to determine the forecast of the time series?

Time-series models ________.

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s). The table below shows the sales details of a kind of vegetable sold at a department store for each week. -Using the given data,calculate the value of mean absolute deviation.

In the context of time series,a cyclical effect differs from a seasonal effect in that the cyclical effect ________.

Moving average and exponential smoothing models work best for stationary time series.

If a time series has a trend and seasonality,the simple exponential smoothing model is the most appropriate model to be used for forecasting.

The Delphi method of forecasting ________.

Sue decided to use the double moving average model to forecast the game sales for the next week,after looking at the tabulated sales for the past twelve weeks.What exactly did she observe?

Data and Business Decisions

Descriptive Statistics and Data Analysis

Probability Concepts and Distributions

Sampling and Estimation

Hypothesis Testing and Statistical Inference

Regression Analysis

Introduction to Statistical Quality Control

Building and Using Decision Models

Decision Models With Uncertainty and Risk

Decisions, uncertainty, and Risk

Queues and Process Simulation Modeling

Linear Optimization

Integer, nonlinear, and Advanced Optimization Methods

Filters

If S_t_-_s₊_k is the seasonal factor for period t - s + k and s is the number of periods in a season,the seasonal multiplicative model can be written as ________.