A Pharmaceutical Company Manufacturing Flu Test Kits Wants to Determine

A pharmaceutical company manufacturing flu test kits wants to determine the probability of a teenager not having the flu when the test results indicate that they do. It is estimated that the probability of positive test for flu among potential users of the kit is 10 percent. According to the company laboratory test results, 1 out of 100 noninfected teenagers tested as having the flu (false positive). On the other hand, 1 out of 200 teenagers with the flu tested as not having the active virus (false negative). A teenager has just used the flu test kit manufactured by the company and the results showed she has the flu. What is the probability that she does not have the flu?

Correct Answer:

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P(NF|TP) = .083
S₁ = ...

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